So we’ve reached the half way point of the season, we’ve played 23 games, obtained 44 points, scored 45 goals and let in 29. So how do I think the season is going? At the start of the season, the target was for most fans, to finish in the top 10, making sure we were still in contention for a playoff place going into the final couple of months despite Edinburgh saying the main target was just to stay up. However now, expectations have changed a little. I can’t think many of us would have predicted us to be 3rd at the half way stage so expectations have to be altered as a result. I’d say the expectations for the second half of the season are this: anything below top 10 would be seen as a disappointment, anything inside the top 10 but not in the play offs would be seen as an ‘ok’ season, play off places would be great and perhaps the most expected finish given the squad and our current position, and getting automatic promotion/ champions would be brilliant and would require a bit more consistency and a couple of key additions in the squad in the January Transfer Window. So what have been the positives? The form of Bradley Dack for a start. According to the Gils website he has 11 goals and 7 assists and is key to the team. When Dack plays well, the team often plays well. Although it is about the team around him as well (for a start someone has to finish off the chances), he is the star turn in the team. Another positive is the number of goals we have managed to score. 45 is the second highest in the division behind Peterborough with 49 goals and goals do win you football matches. It is a more positive feeling going into a match knowing that if needed, we do have the potential to ‘outscore’ the opposition. A final positive is the home form. We sit 2nd in the home form table, with the 2nd most goals scored (25) behind Peterborough and Coventry on 26 and we have the best home goal difference of any team (+14). However despite the positives, there are negatives. We have been leaking too many goals. Of all the teams in the top half of the table we have conceded the 5th most goals (29) only beaten by Peterborough (34), Bury (34), Millwall (32) and Sheffield (30). Perhaps the lack of a settled defence hasn’t helped the issue. Jackson got suspended for a game, Garmston and Dickenson traded places at left back for a while and Oshilaja started the season, then got injured and then Ehmer played a couple and then Lennon came in and no settled back 4 has been sorted out until quite recently. Perhaps it’s no surprise that taking 4 of the last 6 games (not including Coventry – Lennon got recalled and Burton – Loft) we have only conceded 3 goals in 4 games and that rate would give you 17/18 goals up to now and not 29. I think the back 4 we are currently playing is the best we have available, Jackson and Garmston provide something going forwards (although maybe lack a little defensively), Egan is his ever good self (despite a couple of nervy moments) and Oshilaja is getting back to the unbeatable defender we saw in August. However, this could all change in January (more on that later). Another negative is the lack of strikers scoring goals. Statistically, the number of strikers scoring goals isn’t that much more than the number of defenders scoring goals. For example, since the beginning of November, of 15 goals scored, less than a 1/3 of these (4) were scored by strikers, 3 of which were scored by Samuel who is on loan. Although it is clear that we are still finding ways to score goals, if these dry up then we haven’t got someone who we can rely on to stick the ball in the back of the net every couple of games. Basically every other team has a striker who they can rely on to score, Coventry have Adam Armstrong, Scunthorpe have Paddy Madden, Bury have Leon Clarke, Swindon have Nicky Ajose and Walsall have Tom Bradshaw just to list a few. A final negative is the away form/ lack of an alternative tactic. Pretty much every game we have played 4-4-2, with 4 central players. Against Yeovil in the JPT we tried to play 5-3-2 but that didn’t go brilliantly. We played 4-2-3-1 away at Chesterfield and got a nice 3-1 away win and I think this is something which needs to be looked into for certain away games. Although the 4-4-2 can clearly work sometimes away, for example the last 2 games, the heavy defeats to Coventry and Stevenage suggest that in some other games the formation needs to be explored. We need to make sure that we have the ability to interchange between formations easily, lesser heavy defeats to Colchester, Barnsley and Walsall suggest that perhaps a mid-game change in formation ‘may’ have been needed at points. This is definitely something which needs to be looked into. So in a few days the January Transfer Window opens. The loans of Oshilaja, Houghton and Williamson end on 3rd January, while Samuel’s ends on the 2nd. Decisions will have to be made on the details on these loans. If we could then I think extending all three of our loans would be the best way forward and then bringing Williamson back as he seems to be in form. Whether or not these loans get extended or not I think there are three key positions where we need to bring somebody in. One in Defence, One in Midfield and One in Attack. I think we need to bring in a tall commanding centre back like Leon Legge or Aden Flint (not these specific players) who we can use if the opposition have a particularly tall striker, or we can put on in the second half if a goal down and will provide a major attacking threat from corners, throw ins and free kicks. For example if memory serves me right, Aden Flint scored 10 goals while at Bristol City in League 1 last year. I also think we need a ‘better version’ of Doug Loft. By that I mean, someone with a lot of league 1 experience and who can pick a pass out of nothing, but is more mobile than Loft and doesn’t make so many stupid mistakes. It might cost a bit of money to bring in a player like this, but I think it could really be worth it as this player lining up with someone like Houghton, Hessenthaler or Osadebe in the middle sounds like a good combination. Finally I think it would be beneficial to bring in a very tall hold up striker, someone like Matt Smith. We have a couple of hold up strikers at the club (Norris and to an extent Samuel) but none are anywhere near Matt Smith’s height (the taller Norris is 1.84m) and Smith is 1.98m. This would give us a very big target to hit up front and another aerial threat from set pieces and crosses. So then, hopefully the second half of the season is at least as successful as the 1st. Finishing where we are now would be brilliant and anything can happen in the Play – Offs. Finishing in 2nd or 1st would be absolutely brilliant. Here’s to a good new year!
