Golden Horn

Golden Horn is a fine racehorse, but it's just got to be on fast ground, which he had yesterday. Sea The Stars was more versatile, and had an outstanding record as a 3-y-o, just one Group 1 after the other, culminating with the Arc. On fast ground, I just don't know between these two, on any other going it has to be STS, of course.

One thing I must add about this Flat season (call it hindsight if you like, be my guest), I have never quite understood the fuss about these "Eagle" horses (take your pick). Wish I did, and knew how to do, this laying business, think I might have done well at this game in yesterday's Arc. Quite honestly, never was that impressed with them, and did notice how connections of one or two of them chickened-out more than once? Gosden and Co. didn't at York, although I'm sure the trainer knew damn well GH was vulnerable on softish ground?

Exit: SwanHills
Enter: The Irish...................

 

I'm no fan of Frankie but credit to him for an absolutely brilliant ride yesterday. Sometimes fortune really does favour the brave.

 

Sea The Stars was pulled from the Irish Derby because of soft ground if I remember right, John Oxx always said he wouldnt want to run him on soft, got away with it in a a couple of 2yo races where the the competition wasnt great.

Golden Horn got beat a neck in the Juddmonte, its not as if he was tailed off, he had some half decent horses well behind, Arabian Queen also beat the rock solid G1 yardstick The Grey Gatsby be 3 1/2L that day! it was just a strange race with the pacemaker beaten only 5L and its hard to explain the the form, we all know Arabian Queen isnt in the same class but thats racing, the York lottery track is the only thing I can offer to explain it.

Frankie has been the story of the season, incredible season hes had and some top class rides in big races. But spare a thought for Buick, he must be absolutely sick having given up the job with Gosden to share the Godolphin job he has missed a Derby and Arc winner and whats the chances of him getting one of those with Godolphin! Hes had a decent season but even the Consolation Stakes with Jack Hobbs wont make up for missing the two jewels of the flat. Maybe that 2yo they have for the Dewhurst will turn out a good one for him.

 

Sea The Stars was a very good horse but I always thought he would be vulnerable in a truly run race on soft over 12f. He was kept away from the Irish Derby on Good To Yielding and I predicted he wouldn't run in the Arc if the going came up soft. Fortunately it didn't and, lo and behold, he becomes a great. In terms of form there doesn't seem much in it but, if pushed, I would say Golden Horn beat better horses than dis STS. Time-wise, in their Epsom Derbies Golden Horn was 4.42 secs faster, on similar ground. In the Arc STS was 0.03 secs faster, on similar ground. Both would not have even contested the Arc on soft ground. I fail to see how fast ground specialists can be regarded as Great. If we can so do, then some of the horses that were not kept away from certain races due to the ground (and got beaten) should maybe also come into the reckoning.

 

I am not sure yesterdays ground could have been called fast by anyone, it looked on the good side of good to firm to me at best and more like just good racing ground. I don't think Sea the Stars or Golden Horn are fast ground horses but simply do have a preference as most do. Treve appears to be far more particular about the ground she races on and if the ground yesterday was too fast for her it does lay them open to the claim that she is just a soft ground horse.

 

Golden Horn has been on the go since April, a season even longer than Sea The Stars, with only the defeat at York blotting his copybook. It was a great shame that he was not able to take his place in the King George but with the owner being a breeder there is little chance that he will not be packed off to stud as he does not have anything to prove.

To think back at Newmarket when he won the Feilden Stakes and he was 20/1 for the Derby, I looked at it and saw that he had no Derby entry and thought he was a ten furlong horse who would not stay. I called that one wrong!

Unless it remains dry enough for Gleneagles to run on Champions’ Day, I can see the Breeders’ Cup Mile being his last race. We have seen so little of him this term that I could see a case for keeping him in training as a four year old; however, another wet summer would equate to a year of missed stud fees and I suspect that is the view ‘the Lads’ will take.

I have not seen the Arc replay many times but there did not appear to be any obvious hard luck stories, so taking a simplistic approach and analysing the form literally Golden Horn did not better his rating. If Flintshire ran to 123 or perhaps 124, that puts the Derby winner’s performance at around the 128 mark. Clearly Treve did not run to her best mark on good ground and it is notable that all her best performances (e.g. the 2013 Arc) have been on soft. Nobody seems to crab her achievements because of her failures on quicker ground but the reverse of that methodology does not seem to be allowed for John Gosden’s charge. Curious.

Sorry to have to rain on the Treve parade a bit here but I have seen her race six or seven times. Firstly, she is never going to win any beauty contests. I have spoken to two or three photographers and they have all made that observation with which I concur. In the parade ring, Treve is always throwing her head around and always seems unsettled, which I think is just her nervous nature. That is why I have got no decent head shots of her! In her slower paces, she often has her head buried in her chest (did before the Vermeille this year) or messes Jarnet around. Pretty much the only decent photos I have of her are in races. I will agree that she did appear to get worked up in the Arc preliminaries this year and I wonder how much of this might be the fault of the authorities in insisting on unsettling excessive security – like coming in the parade ring with four security guys. I thought they lopped the heads off their royalty ages ago.

I did not see the Arc trophy presentations, but did the Qatari Ambassador to France, one Sheikh Al Thani, manage to force a smile through gritted teeth as he handed the prize to somebody who was not a relative?

 

I think that in Britain we would have described yesterday’s Longchamp going as “dead”. It certainly was not fast; there was no firmness and the horses were making a good print. Watching Saturday’s racing on the box it had looked on the slow side of good and they had a dry night. The Arc time was slower than last year despite the pacemaker.

 

Sheikh Mohammed has bought a 50% stake in GH at stud, not sure if this is new or old news.

 

Think we've had this conversation before Dan, when we both said he's not our cup of tea but that he's a great jockey.
Piggott in his recent interview said Dettori was the best jockey riding today.

 

According to reports in the Racing Post and other places, the next stop for Golden Horn may be the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland. With the strong possibility of quick ground, it has to be hoped that it would not be one race too many and he could put in a scintillating display.

I do not tend to follow jockeys per se as I generally find that a competent jockey should be able to win if the horse is good enough, so when I analyse the form I look for the best horse irrespective of the midget on the back.

On Sunday, it was clear that John Gosden and Frankie Dettori had hatched a plan of action for Golden Horn once they knew where they were drawn and Frankie executed that plan to perfection. The fact that Frankie had time in the last twenty five yards to celebrate by waving his whip at the crowd suggests that he was better than the two length winning margin.

I had not heard this before so it may be a new story or I missed it originally!

It is a very interesting decision as Darley already have several Cape Cross lines, so I can only assume that they are keen on Golden Horn because he is inbred to Northern Dancer in the great-great grandparent generation or because of Dubai Destination in the dam’s family. Possibly one for Princess Newmarket or Bustino as the resident breeding experts.

 

Darley put out a press release on Sunday night to say they had bought 50% of the breeding rights to GH but that he would remain entirely the Oppenheimer's property until the end of the season, so he's still calling the shots as far as any more racing goes.

Interestingly they are softening towards a trip to Breeders' Cup, GH has a "Win and You In" entry for winning the Irish Champion and Gosden has been out to Keeneland to look at the turf track.

 

Frankie says the last 1.5f was the fastest finish he has had on a horse, obviously he will be exaggerating but does anyone know if the sectionals prove it was a better than average last 1-2f?

 

https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/timeform-sectional-debrief-special-arc-weekend-2015-5102015

found something on it.

 

The upgrading of horses with regard these statistics just proves one of my biggest issues with jockeys who do not make effort to secure a better position from the start.- holding up a horse intentionally amounts to giving a head start in all but the fastest of run races, gaining cover is one thing giving head start quite another. The upgrade of Limato speaks hugely of this as everyone knew Limato was finished by his start as was never going to make up that ground.

 

Have to remember though, you can't burn the candles at both ends. Spend more at the beginning and you'll have less at the end, it's a delicate balancing act.

 

How Limato even got close enough to challenge I don't know. There was a mix up coming out of the stalls and he was clearly affected. He and the horse that leaped in the air trailed from the start and looked to have no chance coming into the straight. The results say "Dwelt slightly and held up in rear". Joke analysis. What race were they watching?

 

Having read the Timeform sectional article and re-watched the race, Treve's jockey rode a stinker. I think the pressure got to him and he overdid the waiting. It was not a fast pace and Treve, fighting for her head, was being held back too far off the pace; so much so that:

"sectionals show she would have had to run the last 600 metres in less than 33.33s to prevail. If not impossible, that would have been very difficult indeed at the end of a 2400-metre race, even for a mare of Treve’s prodigious ability. As it is, she ran 33.69s, against Golden Horn’s 34.01s,"

"The ground was firmer than good on both days: “good to soft” (which it was still being advertised as on Saturday morning) it was not. The only reason why more track and race records were not endangered is that many of the races proved to be tactical affairs. This applies to the Arc itself. Golden Horn’s winning time of 2m 27.23s is one of the quicker ones in history but is relatively modest given the conditions.".

Note. All the cars parked by the side of the track were absolutely covered in dust.

No doubt about it, even though I don't think Treve was at her best, the race was tactical and Frankie won that hands down. Well done to him.

 

I think Golden Horn would beat Sea The Stars over 12f but over 10 I'd go with STS.

Both of Golden Horns 12f wins in the Arc and Derby looked more impressive than STS wins in both races, particularly when you take into account where he was drawn in the Arc. I think the horses Golden Horn beat in both races where better too.

Golden Horns weakness is he's not the quickest, so he's had to tough it out from the front over 10, but over 12 I think he has really shown his class

 

Seems a bit odd as 6 horses finished faster