Friday's Meetings Epsom Downs Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:50p.m. The Oaks Off @ 4:30p.m. Market Rasen N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:20p.m. Catterick Flat 8 Races 1:50-6:05p.m. Tramore(E) N/H 7 Races 5:40-8:55p.m. Bath(E) Flat 7 Races 5:45-9:00p.m. Doncaster(E) Flat 7 Races 6:00-9:10p.m. Goodwood(E) Flat 6 Races 6:10-8:50p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Looking at the final field for the Oaks and, more importantly the likely going, it seems obvious there is no Ballydoyle superstar in the race. Ryan Moore chooses Magic Wand from the 5 O'Brien trained runners (out of a total field of 9) based, one assumes, on her having run the best trial of the 5 in winning the Cheshire Oaks. She has, however, previously struggled with cut and if you take a strict formline through Dermot Weld's Jaega (which I admit can be risky), she has a bit to find with Bye Bye Baby - who in turn looks totally exposed and is difficult to fancy. Ruling out Magic Wand also rules out Forever Together (beaten by her at Chester). I Can Fly quite clearly can't and is gladly overlooked which leaves the totally unexposed Flattering, ridden by last year's Derby hero Padraig Beggy, as possibly the one to spring a surprise at around the 20/1 mark. She absolutely sluiced up on seasonal debut at Cork over 10 furlongs, winning by 10 lengths from the race-fit Samasthiti (whose form ties in with Jaega) and may not have appreciated the good-firm ground at Lingfield when beaten into 3rd behind Perfect Clarity and Cecchini (Moore dropped his whip in the finish). Clive Cox's Perfect Clarity reopposes and is respected but I just think ground conditions might enable Flattering to turn the tables. Whilst Wild Illusion won the Marcel Boussac on soft, that was over 7 furlongs and I have reservations about her stamina on a testing surface. Her dam Ruhm got extremes of trip but was only a handicapper (highest OR 103) and her other daughter Really Special (by Shamardal) was well short of top class. If the rain forecast for today doesn't materialise and the ground dries to be nearer good by the off, then you can take the above with a pinch of salt. But if conditions are testing then the call is a sporting each-way bet on Flattering.
Some well-bred fillies in the Oaks. I'm veering towards Nathaniel's daughter Perfect Clarity as he was so good on soft ground and she comes from a sound female line which has thrown up good horses. Magic wand is attractive and for those Yorkshire types out there traces back to Lionel Holliday's Lost Soul (his best family and the family of Harzand).. Wild Illusion should not be inconvenienced by the going being by Dubawi. She comes from the Irish family of Ardross who would make one think that she should get the trip. I like Give and Take a lot but those last 2 furlongs may be a stretch. From the de Walden Fame and Glory family she is well-bred and has bags of stamina in the bottom half of her pedigree but difficult to see Cityscape getting a horse to get 12f at this level. Like the breeding of Ejtyah as she traces back to one of Marcel Boussac's last good fillies and more recently has been a top class Aga Khan family. If the going was good to firm I'd rate her the best outsider. I'm backing Perfect Clarity to give Nathaniel consecutive Oaks winners.
If she goes on the ground, I'm with Perfect Clarity. Will be suited by the course too. Otherwise I'm with Flattering to reverse the Lingfield form I think she will go on the ground as Nathaniel won on soft and the sire of dam's best form was on soft. Also produced Enable who definitely goes well on soft It's a balance of will she be better on soft and how much difference did dropping the whip make at Lingfield. The difference in odds looks silly so I would have 2 points on Perfect Clarity at 7/1 and half a point on Flattering at 28/1
Ron if you get a minute re-watch (preferably with Amanda) the Oaks trial at Lingfield - Flattering (to my untrained eye) looks to have a relatively high knee action meaning she would have hate the ground there - am I right or just imagining? It certainly looks more pronounced than Perfect Clarity.
Veteran 606ers, can you believe there is a horse in the Tramore bumper tomorrow named; EOS I **** you not! Trainer has a very good record in Tramore bumpers too!
Shame there isn't one called Eez .................... Might this be a case of "more research required"?
Hi Oddy. Just looked at that race with Amanda. Can only compare those two horses as we didn't have time to look at any other runners. Based on that race Amanda would back Perfect Clarity to beat Flattering on any ground, especially over 12f. Flattering does have a higher knee action but that looks to be (purely based on their action during the race) due to her shoulder not being as good as PC's (ie PC appears to have a better layback of shoulder which would make her the more efficient of the two over 12f). If the horse doesn't have a good layback of shoulder, then to get the stride necessary to match the drive from the rear it will have to lift its front legs higher to clear the ground. That is a loss of efficiency which will cause the horse to tire the further it goes. It may be that Flattering will not stay the 12f. Whereas PC has a lovely layback of shoulder, and has a winning mentality. Can't say whether she will beat the other horses but is a very nice horse and will beat Flattering tomorrow. Neck, block
PS. The only reservation we would have is that we were not able to look at the horses' conformation side by side and were judging based on their actions in the race. If Flattering's neck was out for some reason in that race it would have affected her action and head carriage (note the difference in the two horses' head carriage when the chips were down). If that were the case and she has since seen the osteopath, then we would have got the wrong impression. Unlikely but you never know. Another thing in favour of PC is the way she stomped her front feet down to gain extra push, gaining ground in the process near the finish. On an easier surface that would be an asset.
Just six in the Coronation Cup thanks to the soft ground and a son of Frankel. Naturally Cracksman is a ridiculously short priced favourite but it would be no surprise to see him turned over by Hawkbill, equally adept on the easy ground having won the Eclipse in such conditions two years ago; and third in this race last year. Idaho won the Ormonde last time and was third in the Derby two years ago before famously losing his jockey when favourite for the St Leger; however, he has always come up short in Group 1 company so surely needs the other two to underperform. It is hard to make a case for any of the three outsiders, with all of them needing to find a lot on official ratings to bother the front three. Despite the apparently open looking nature of the race this year, The Oaks is contested by just nine fillies, five from Ballydoyle guaranteeing that at least some of the money will be heading over to Ireland. Wild Illusion has inherited favouritism thanks to her fourth in the 1000 Guineas and ground conditions will be no problem for last year’s Prix Marcel Boussac winner. On the Guineas form she theoretically holds I Can Fly, who never went a yard at Newmarket. Magic Wand won the Cheshire Oaks (with maiden Forever Together well beaten in second) and looks to take the same route as last year’s victor, although whether she is as useful on soft ground is questionable given her failure to win two maiden races in such conditions. Also from Ballydoyle, Blue Wind winner Bye Bye Baby has no ground issues but comes here pretty exposed (this will be her ninth race). Unbeaten Perfect Clarity needs to step up significantly on her Lingfield Oaks Trial win (with Flattering third) and is also a bit of an unknown on the ground. Musidora winner Give And Take also needs to find improvement after her workmanlike victory in what does not look like a great race on the Knavesmire, where Ejtyah was third. Just for the sake of nominating one, I will go with Give And Take as she is tactically adaptable and will handle the ground. If conditions do not dry out by Saturday afternoon, The Epsom Derby Festival is looking like a no bet this year.
Best race on the card at Epsom looks like the 3.45. Lots of cd winners in the race and I'm taking on the jolly with brorocco. With a clear run should have won this last year. Still well handicapped and the trainers horses always seem to run well here. Cheers.
All over Pastoral Player @ 33s in the last @ Epsom, back at Epsom think it'll get back to winning ways
Interesting and informative posts! Just for an interest while watching the Oaks will have a couple of wins and a R/F on Wild Illusion & Forever Together. Both will surely stay, and should handle the drying ground. The weather map from the BBC is very odd, as Epsom has just about the only rain drop on the location indicator things. Good old England really does have localised rainfall! Also noticed that SL pick these two, thieving b******s.
Backed it last week Chelsea must have been a pipe opener. Is getting on a bit but on a good mark. The one that worries me is the bottom weight for that old rogue Ellsworth.
Kinda busy, so don't post every day. Done two lots today. First one is those up to 7/2. Note that Arctic Sea is running for me again today after getting horribly squeezed against fence and denied win at Brighton LTO: Epsom 14:00 Outright Betting True Belief 10/3 Goodwood 18:40 Outright Betting Pogo 10/3 please log in to view this image 9/2 Bath 18:50 Outright Betting Zarrar 7/2 Bath 19:25 Outright Betting Arctic Sea 10/3 Goodwood 19:45 Outright Betting Tricksy Spirit 3/1 Bath 19:55 Outright Betting Coronation Cottage 3/1 Done these in win singles, win doubles at 2/5ths of singles unit stake, same for win trebles, then win 4folds, 5folds, 6fold at 1/5th singles unit stake. --------------------------------------------- The second list has added those which were 4/1 or 9/2 on Oddschecker. In one case I only got 7/2 from Betfred. These 10 have been done in small stakes singles (so I've added to the singles stakes on previous list) and win trebles at 1/2 singles stakes. Epsom 14:00 Outright Betting True Belief 10/3 Goodwood 18:40 Outright Betting Pogo 10/3 Bath 18:50 Outright Betting Zarrar 7/2 Bath 19:25 Outright Betting Arctic Sea 10/3 Goodwood 19:45 Outright Betting Tricksy Spirit 3/1 Bath 19:55 Outright Betting Coronation Cottage 3/1 Market Rasen 15:25 Outright Betting Pixiepot 9/2 please log in to view this image 9/2 Epsom 17:50 Outright Betting Galloway Hills 7/2 Doncaster 18:00 Outright Betting Mr Tyrrell 4/1 please log in to view this image 4/1 (shd) Goodwood 20:50 Outright Betting Victory Wave 9/2
