Why is it a ludicrous idea to do what they feel is best for the horse? Sir Henry has judged his career perfectly so far by allowing the horse to tell him when he is ready.
I dont think Sir Barney was being disrespectful to connections Princess. I think Sir Henry is perfectly correct that the horse, any horse in fact, lets the trainer know when he's ready to race and part of the trainers skill is reading each individual horse and i would guess that it's this skill that seperates those that can simply train to those who understand horses as well. I think what Sir Barney was finding absurd was the idea that the horse could let us know where he wants to go next in as much he can communicate through his behaviour his well being but clearly not whether he wants to go to France for a 12f or Ascot for a 10f. This is clearly the connections job to decide and i think we fear that the safe route will be taken rather than what every racegoer would like which is to take on another challenge. I would dearly love Frankel to sign off with a stunning 5 length victory in the Arc but were he mine i may well decide to go to Ascot as well. I think if connections say the Arc could contain possible, however unlikely, complications so we have decided to play it safe and go to Ascot then no one will have a problem but Sir Barney's use of the word absurd i feel only referred to the idea of them suggesting the horse was deciding between the two by letting us know. The only possible way the horse could have let them know i guess is if Tom Queally came back after the York race and said he was emptying and did not want any further but i would find that a surprise. Wherever he runs i think he will win and even if he never ran in either no one can knock what he has done with any credibility in my opinion.
Yep, certainly wasn’t being disrespectful as I'm a big fan of both the horse and his connections. Just find it ludicrous re the chioce of words that they use when they say the horse will ‘tell them’ where they go next. What Sir Henry, Lord Teddy, Tom Queally, et al will do is take everything on board and then make a decision where to go next. It could be the right one or it could be the wrong one but ultimately they, and they alone, will make it. By saying ‘the horse’ will tell them where they go next seems to be an attempt to pass the buck away from what, at the end of the day, can only be a human decision. Meanwhile, I read the ‘Racing Post’ at lunchtime and if that publication is to be believed then it will almost certainly be the case that Frankel ends his career in the ‘Champion Stakes’. One point of reasoning behind this was because connections wanted to boast the legacy of the ‘Champion Stakes’ and by having Frankel on its ‘roll of honour’ the race would get a huge boast which would inspire others, in the future, to target that heat rather than the Arc and subsequently one day it could rival’s Longchamp’s Group 1 prize. Crickey, that’s almost as much spin as employed by ‘New’ Labour under Mr Boom and Mr Bust!
Sorry, I didn't mean to accuse anyone. What I meant was that it is not so strange to allow the horse to "tell" you where to go next. You judge his wellbeing, his fitness, his attitude, etc and that is the guide. I suspect you are right Barney that he will go for the Champion Stakes, and is it so unusual for an owner to want to support a "local" race? The only reason Cirrus des Aigles will run in the Champion Stakes is because they cannot run him in the Arc, otherwise I am sure his connections would rather run in France.
As far as I'm aware Frankel cannot talk (he can do a lot of other remarkable things though) so him 'telling them where to go next' relies on connections interpreting the evidence they have at their disposal to determine which route would be in the horse's best interests. If you were unable to read a horse well enough to ascertain whether the Champion Stakes would be a more suitable target than the Arc or vice versa then you would be a piss poor trainer. Sir Henry Cecil is most definitely not a piss poor trainer. Of course, it is not cut and dried and I am in no doubt that he would win either race, and almost certainly both were he given the opportunity, however connections will certainly be able to read the horse to ascertain where to go next.
A quick update (need to go back through the older races to update subsequent winners) Maiden 11 opponents 0 previous winners 8 subsequent winners (from 11 runners) 3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Nathaniel, G1 Colour Vision , G3 Genius Beast) Conditions 2 opponents 1 previous winner 1 subsequent winner (from 1 runner) Royal Lodge 4 opponents 4 previous winners 1 previous Listed winner (Klammer) 3 subsequent winners (from 3 runners) 3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Treasure Beach, G2 Slim Shady, G3 Klammer) Dewhurst 5 opponents 4 previous winners 3 previous Group winners (G3 New Greenfield, G2 Saamidd, G1 Dream Ahead) 4 subsequent winners (from 5 runners) 2 subsequent Group winners (G1 Roderic OâConnor, G1 Dream Ahead) Greenham 5 opponents 5 previous winners 1 Previous Group winner (G2 Strong Suit, also G1 placed) 3 subsequent winners (from 5 runners) 2 subsequent Group winners (G2 Strong Suit, G1 Excelebration) Guineas 12 opponents 12 previous winners 7 previous Group winners (G1 Roderic OâConnor, G1 Casamento, G1 Pathfork, G2 Saamidd, G3 Rerouted, G3 Native Khan, G3 Broox) 5 subsequent winners (from 12 runners) 4 subsequent Group winners (G1 Roderic OâConnor, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Slim Shady, G3 Casamento) St Jamesâs Palace 8 opponents 8 previous winners 6 previous Group horses (G1 Grand Prix Boss, G1 Wootton Bassett, G1 Dream Ahead, G1 Zoffany, G2 Excelebration, G3 Rerouted) 4 subsequent winners (from 8 runners) 3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Dream Ahead, G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold) Sussex 3 opponents 3 previous winners 3 previous Group winners (G1 Canford Cliffs, G1 Rio de la Plata, G2 Rajsaman) 1 subsequent winner (from 2 runners) 1 subsequent Group winner (G2 Rajsaman) QEII 7 opponents 7 previous winners 7 previous Group winners (G1 Poetâs Voice, G1 Dick Turpin, G1 Immortal Verse, G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Side Glance) 2 subsequent winners (from 5 runners) 2 subsequent Group horses (G1 Excelebration, G3 Side Glance) Lockinge 5 opponents 5 previous winners 5 previous Group winners (G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Ransom Note, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Windsor Palace) 1 subsequent winner (from 4 runners) 1 subsequent Group winner (G1 Excelebration) Queen Anne 10 opponents 10 previous winners 9 previous Group winners (G1 Helmet, G1 Excelebration, G2 Worthadd, G2 Strong Suit, G2 Red Jazz, G2 Premio Loco, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Windsor Palace, G3 Side Glance) 1 subsequent winner (from 9 runners) 1 subsequent Group winner (G1 Excelebration) Sussex 3 opponents 3 previous winners 1 previous Group winner (G3 Bullet Train, though Farhh 3 x G1 placed) 0 subsequent winners (from 3 runners) Juddmonte International 8 opponents 8 previous winners 6 previous Group winners (G1 Planteur, G1 Twice Over, G1 St Nicholas Abbey, G2 Sri Putra, G3 Windsor Palace, G3 Bullet Train) 0 subsequent winners (from 4 runners) (Fahhr & St Nicholas Abbey G1 placed) Champion Stakes 5 opponents 5 previous winners 5 previous Group winners (G1 Cirrus des Aigles, G1 Nathaniel, G1 Pastorius, G1 Master of Hounds, G3 Bullet Train)
G1 winners beaten: Canford Cliffs: 2010 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE); 2010 St James’s Palace; 2010 Sussex; 2011 Lockinge; 2011 Queen Anne Casamento: 2010 Racing Post Trophy Cirrus Des Aigles: 2011 Champion Stakes; 2012 Dubai Sheema Classic; 2012 Prix Ganay; Colour Vision: 2012 Ascot Gold Cup Dick Turpin: 2010 Prix Jean Prat (FR); 2011 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY) Dream Ahead: 2010 Prix Morny (FR); 2010 Middle Park; 2011 July Cup; 2011 Sprint Cup; 2011 Prix de la Foret (FR) Excelebration 2011 Prix du Moulin (FR); 2012 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR); 2012 QEII Immortal Verse: 2011 Coronation Stakes; 2011 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR) Grand Prix Boss: 2010 Futurity Stakes (JPN); 2011 NHK Mile Cup (JPN) Helmet: 2011 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (AUS); 2011 Caulfield Guineas (AUS) Master of Hounds: G1 Jebel Hatta Nathaniel: 2011 King George, 2012 Eclipse Pastorius: 2012 German Derby; 2012 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Pathfork: 2010 National Stakes (IRE) Planteur: 2011 Prix Ganay (FR) Poet’s Voice: 2010 QE II Rio de la Plata: 2007 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR); 2010 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY) Roderic O'Connor:2010 Criterium International (FR); 2011 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE) St Nicholas Abbey: 2009 Racing Post Trophy; 2011 Coronation Stakes; 2011 BC Turf (USA); 2012 Coronation Stakes Treasure Beach: 2011 Irish Derby; 2011 Secretariat Stakes (USA) Twice Over: 2009 Champion Stakes; 2010 Eclipse; 2010 Champion Stakes; 2011 Juddmonte International Wootton Bassett: 2010 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR) Zoffany: 2010 Phoenix Stakes (IRE) That's 50 Group 1 races.
Many thanks Princess, i will be printing this off. I think this is the most accurate way of rating form i have come across as it really does demonstrate the weight that should be given to a race regardless of it's grade and heratige. The performance yesterday although not breath taking as some previous runs was still immense when put into perspective that Nathaniel had won the Eclipse and was only done on the nod in the King George this year whilst CDA is clearly a serious horse and Frankel could be called the winner very early in the home straight. When we add to this just how exceptional Excelebration is and proved once again yesterday. I think for me there is little doubt that if tried Frankel could have won group ones at 6f 8f 10f and 12f this year. I think also your way of demonstrating form would show how without exception each classic this year was really poor, i am still trying to get my head around how Homecoming Queen has won the 1000 Guineas and its now October
Thanks Bluesky. As you say, the Classic form this year is pretty poor. A comparison between Camelot and Frankel shows that, by the end of their respective 3yo careers, Frankel had beaten 13 previous G1 winners and 6 of his opponents later went on to win G1s. In comparison, Camelot has beaten just 1 previous G1 winner (French Fifteen) and 1 subsequent G1 winner (Power)
We have to hope that the 2013 three year olds turn out to be a decent bunch and that Camelot does not get packed off to stud with excuses rather than facing them. Camelot was impressive at Epsom beating trees – just like Shergar – but can he actual produce the goods against some serious opponents? Frankel beat anything that was available, admittedly without leaving the country, and was not troubled to do so most of the time. He was a true champion and the statistics back that up.
A few more updates, just because I like to keep things nice and tidy! Maiden 11 opponents 0 previous winners 8 subsequent winners (from 11 runners) 3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Nathaniel, G1 Colour Vision , G3 Genius Beast) Conditions 2 opponents 1 previous winner 1 subsequent winner (from 1 runner) Royal Lodge 4 opponents 4 previous winners 1 previous Listed winner (Klammer) 3 subsequent winners (from 3 runners) 3 subsequent Group horses (G1 Treasure Beach, G2 Slim Shady, G3 Klammer) Dewhurst 5 opponents 4 previous winners 3 previous Group winners (G3 New Greenfield, G2 Saamidd, G1 Dream Ahead) 4 subsequent winners (from 5 runners) 2 subsequent Group winners (G1 Roderic O’Connor, G1 Dream Ahead) Greenham 5 opponents 5 previous winners 1 Previous Group winner (G2 Strong Suit, also G1 placed) 3 subsequent winners (from 5 runners) 2 subsequent Group winners (G2 Strong Suit, G1 Excelebration) Guineas 12 opponents 12 previous winners 7 previous Group winners (G1 Roderic O’Connor, G1 Casamento, G1 Pathfork, G2 Saamidd, G3 Rerouted, G3 Native Khan, G3 Broox) 7 subsequent winners (from 12 runners) 4 subsequent Group winners (G1 Roderic O’Connor, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Slim Shady, G3 Casamento) St James’s Palace 8 opponents 8 previous winners 6 previous Group horses (G1 Grand Prix Boss, G1 Wootton Bassett, G1 Dream Ahead, G1 Zoffany, G2 Excelebration, G3 Rerouted) 6 subsequent winners (from 8 runners) 4 subsequent Group horses (G1 Dream Ahead, G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Grand Prix Boss) Sussex 3 opponents 3 previous winners 3 previous Group winners (G1 Canford Cliffs, G1 Rio de la Plata, G2 Rajsaman) 1 subsequent winner (from 2 runners) 1 subsequent Group winner (G2 Rajsaman) QEII 7 opponents 7 previous winners 7 previous Group winners (G1 Poet’s Voice, G1 Dick Turpin, G1 Immortal Verse, G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Side Glance) 2 subsequent winners (from 5 runners) 2 subsequent Group horses (G1 Excelebration, G3 Side Glance) Lockinge 5 opponents 5 previous winners 5 previous Group winners (G1 Excelebration, G2 Dubawi Gold, G2 Ransom Note, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Windsor Palace) 1 subsequent winner (from 4 runners) 1 subsequent Group winner (G1 Excelebration) Queen Anne 10 opponents 10 previous winners 9 previous Group winners (G1 Helmet, G1 Excelebration, G2 Worthadd, G2 Strong Suit, G2 Red Jazz, G2 Premio Loco, G3 Bullet Train, G3 Windsor Palace, G3 Side Glance) 2 subsequent winners (from 10 runners) 2 subsequent Group winners (G1 Excelebration, G2 Premio Loco) Sussex 3 opponents 3 previous winners 1 previous Group winner (G3 Bullet Train, though Farhh 3 x G1 placed) 1 subsequent winner (from 3 runners) 1 subsequent Group winner (G1 Farhh) Juddmonte International 8 opponents 8 previous winners 6 previous Group winners (G1 Planteur, G1 Twice Over, G1 St Nicholas Abbey, G2 Sri Putra, G3 Windsor Palace, G3 Bullet Train) 2 subsequent winners (from 6 runners) 2 Group winners (G1 St Nicholas Abbey, G1 Farhh, & Planteur 2 x G1 placed) Champion Stakes 5 opponents 5 previous winners 5 previous Group winners (G1 Cirrus des Aigles, G1 Nathaniel, G1 Pastorius, G1 Master of Hounds, G3 Bullet Train) 0 subsequent winners (from 1 runner – Master of Hounds G2 placed)
G1 winners beaten: Canford Cliffs: 2010 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE); 2010 St James’s Palace; 2010 Sussex; 2011 Lockinge; 2011 Queen Anne Casamento: 2010 Racing Post Trophy Cirrus Des Aigles: 2011 Champion Stakes; 2012 Dubai Sheema Classic; 2012 Prix Ganay; Colour Vision: 2012 Ascot Gold Cup Dick Turpin: 2010 Prix Jean Prat (FR); 2011 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY) Dream Ahead: 2010 Prix Morny (FR); 2010 Middle Park; 2011 July Cup; 2011 Sprint Cup; 2011 Prix de la Foret (FR) Excelebration: 2011 Prix du Moulin (FR); 2012 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR); 2012 QEII Immortal Verse: 2011 Coronation Stakes; 2011 Prix Jacques le Marois (FR) Farhh: 2013 Lockinge Stakes Grand Prix Boss: 2010 Futurity Stakes (JPN); 2011 NHK Mile Cup (JPN) Helmet: 2011 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (AUS); 2011 Caulfield Guineas (AUS) Master of Hounds: G1 Jebel Hatta Nathaniel: 2011 King George, 2012 Eclipse Pastorius: 2012 German Derby; 2012 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Pathfork: 2010 National Stakes (IRE) Planteur: 2011 Prix Ganay (FR) Poet’s Voice: 2010 QE II Rio de la Plata: 2007 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR); 2010 Premio Vittorio Di Capua (ITY) Roderic O'Connor: 2010 Criterium International (FR); 2011 Irish 2,000 Guineas (IRE) St Nicholas Abbey: 2009 Racing Post Trophy; 2011 Coronation Stakes; 2011 BC Turf (USA); 2012 Coronation Stakes; 2013 Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE) Treasure Beach: 2011 Irish Derby; 2011 Secretariat Stakes (USA); 2012 Turf Classic International (USA) Twice Over: 2009 Champion Stakes; 2010 Eclipse; 2010 Champion Stakes; 2011 Juddmonte International Wootton Bassett: 2010 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (FR) Zoffany: 2010 Phoenix Stakes (IRE) 53 Group 1 races.
Princess, is there any point in updating the Group One achievements of Frankel's beaten adversaries? After all, there are 33 English Group One Races every year in England alone (that's 99 in Frankel's career)-excluding France and Ireland. Therefore, the number of Group Ones won by Frankel's opposition is bound to increase year on year until all those horses beaten by Frankel have retired; likewise any top Group One winner. We are all agreed that Frankel was a great horse, but how good were those horses in that recent list of yours? The best on ratings was Cirrus Des Aigles and he lost far more races than he won. Doubtless his lofty latest rating of 133 came from direct comparison with Frankel. Most of them were rated below 120 and none of them (except CDA) above 130. Hence, if you are going to list the Group Ones won by Frankel's opponents, I'd have to say the "quality" of those Group One horses is what really matters. Personally, if I were offered a pick of any 100 horses I've seen in my lifetime, there wouldn't be one in that list I'd be interested in. At Group One level, I think they're a very ordinary bunch overall. I agree that this doesn't detract from Frankel's brilliance- and he can only beat what's put before him- but I have to say that, based on versatility of distance, quality of opposition, and essentially a "hand picked career" on UK flat tracks, Timeform has gone over the top in rating him the best flat horse in their history. There are several horses I would have backed to beat him at ten furlongs and, though closely matched, I think Brigadier Gerard had a better record at any comparable distance. Ultimately, it's all down to opinion.
Fair point Tam, I guess I've arrived on updating the list as it took a lot of work in the first place!
I still update my list, but I have lists for many top horses (both recent and old) and the most interesting exercise comes in comparing them. For example, Frankel's form and the exploits of his victims blows out of the water anything that Camelot's opposition have achieved. Furthermore, while Dawn Approach has very good two year old form, so far his three year old form has not looked so hot, though it's obviously very early in the season. Meanwhile Sea The Stars' form still gets the occasional franking, even four years on! I first started the exercise several years ago when someone claimed Goldikova hadn't beaten any G1 winners- soon proved that wrong! A similar disagreement over the strength of Black Caviar's opposition was resolved with a form breakdown (G1 winners roll out of her races left right and centre). Obviously just the pure figures don't tell you much without context, winning distances, ratings, form of the secondary G1s etc. I did start a project that recorded the G1 winners in the G1 races won by Goldikova's beaten rivals, but it got too extensive very quickly. It's just a fun exercise for me, and once you get started you don't want to stop!
Princess, your efforts are always much appreciated, but I do think it depends on too many factors to have real merit. I've just thought that it would be interesting to see how many Group One winners a horse like Dahlia beat. I know she beat Group One winners in six countries and raced for five years- although her strike rate was only about 30%. At the end of the day, Frankel was one of the greatest horses seen, but his contemporaries overall weren't a purple bunch. Also, comparisons aren't really necessary. His quality and memory are enough.
An amusing open letter to Tony Morris from Laurie Williamson in the RP a few weeks back. Reading Tony Morris’s usually excellent column in the Racing Post (August 18) and listening to some of the television pundits lately is enough to make a devoted racing fan want to book a one-way ticket to Switzerland to end it all. “Never see his like again” and “not in my lifetime” figure prominently and regularly in their summations. Oh dear, oh dear, for goodness sake cheer up. Being older than most of you let me offer you some reassurance. I have been fortunate to see at least 5 Frankels in my lifetime, so the new coming is probably just around the corner. Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef and Dancing Brave would all have won and dispatched the same opposition with exactly the same aplomb. Nothing Frankel achieved in his 14 races would have been outside the compass of these great champions. I cannot say the same is true should the boot be on the other foot though. Neither I nor even Frankel’s connections, by their actions, confidently claim he would win the Derby, St Leger, King George or Arc, as his predecessors did in their pomp. So don’t worry unduly Tony. After all you have your lovely granddaughter Rosie to think about now and Frankel’s reputation to defend. At three years I guess Rosie will not have seen Frankel strut his stuff, but the day may well come when she rushes back from the races to visit you at Morris Towers. “Grandad Tony”, she dashes in and cries. “Grandad Tony, I have just seen the greatest racehorse ever.” “No you haven’t my dear,” you calmly reply. “That is Frankel”. “Frankel, Grandad Tony? I remember his name. Did he win the Derby?” “No my dear,” you reply. “Did he win the Arc Grandad?” She enquires , buzzing with curiosity. “No my dear”. “Did he beat the winners of the Derby and the Arc, Grandad?” Rosie asks, growing increasingly cautious and suspicious. “No my dear” is the curt reply from a now-subdued Grandad Tony. “Oh,” says Rosie, trying hard to be positive, “he must have been very fast then Grandad and broke lots of course records?” “No my dear, he didn’t.” “Oh Grandad Tony. You are funny!” Laurie Williamson was Brigadier Gerard’s lad.
Laurie Williamson frequently sends letters to the Racing Post on the topic of Brigadier Gerard. He refuses to acknowledge that any horse before or since is worthy to lick BG's shoes. Not too dissimilar to someone else many of us know
