Frankel valued at £30million

From today’s Racing Post:

Wednesday’s brilliant Sussex Stakes winner could be worth at least £30million, according to expert estimates, with one analyst declaring him “the horse that’s impossible to value”, writes Nancy Sexton.

Jim Wordsworth of bloodstock insurance company Anglo Hibernianm which handled the insurance of Dubai Millennium, explained that the colt’s value was based on Frankel retiring to stud at a fee of £100,000.
“Assuming Frankel [who is likely to race at four] stands for between £80,000 and £100,000, his value – and I stress it’s a rough estimate – would be based on the income he would generate by covering 100 mares a year over a three-year period”, he said. “On the basis that he would stand for £100,000, that equation equals a rough value of £30million. But really he is a horse that is impossible to value”.

Agent Hugo Merry was also of the opinion that the unbeaten son of Galileo could command a fee of £80,000 on the basis of what he has achieved so far.
“He could certainly stand at the same level as Sea the Stars,” said Merry, “and at €85,000, he has been the most expensive horse to retire to stud since the downturn.
“On what he has done so far, I would think £80,000 is a fair price. Realistically, there is only one horse that can stand for over £100,000 and that is Galileo – and he’s an owner/breeder type of horse.”

Frankel is just one of a number of high-class colts who could retire to Juddmonte’s stallion division within the next two years, among them Workforce, Mutual Trust, Byword and Twice Over.



My personal opinion is that they have over-egged the value considerably! It is too simplistic to say that if he covers 100 mares at £100,000 over three years that makes an income of £30million!
It does not take into account that Juddmonte will send a large number of their own mares to him, so no money will change hands. It also does not take into account the fact that you do not pay the stud fee if the mare is not in foal. No stallion covering large books has a 100% fertility rate! Galileo himself had a fertility rate of 75.6% from his 2009 coverings (189 mares produced 143 foals).

When the talk about Sea the Stars and his stud fee took place at the back-end of 2009 I put an estimate on his annual earnings at about €4-€5million and I’d say the same for Frankel.
As good a horse as he is, you can’t justify a huge stud fee for an unproven horse – those days are gone.
The most expensive stallion in the UK at the moment is OASIS DREAM (also a Juddmonte stallion, what an embarrassment of riches!) who stands at £85,000. But he is proven with no less than 7 Group 1 winners from his first 4 crops and progeny earnings of around £4million.

Anyone else have thoughts on this subject?

 

I'm not an expert on breeding like you PN, but I would have thought Frankel would be more valuable than Sea The Stars to begin with, I know Sea The Stars proved his class over different trips, but Frankel has won his races in a manner that even STS wouldn't be able to match.

I was always led to believe that a top class miler was more valuable than a middle distance horse, I know STS won the Guineas, but after that he was campaigned over further, Frankel to me has proven to be a much quicker horse than STS, and as far as I'm aware breeders prefer speed.

You also have the added bonus that Frankel is from the sire of all sires Galileo. I know STS is better bred on the dam side with his mother being an Arc winner, but I would have still thought the Galileo influence in Frankel would boost him above STS.

On a side note PN, what would your opinion be on the value of Galileo's stud fee? It must be an absolute fortune

 

I completely disagree Shergy on this one. Sea the Stars showed he is much more than a miler. Something Frankel has yet to do. There's no doubt STS would, at this moment in time, be a much more valuable stallion imho

 

Sea the Stars and Galileo are half-brothers - their dam lines are identical! So Frankel and STS have a lot of similarities in their pedigrees.

You are right that milers are usually worth more than middle distance horses, but again the manner in which STS won his races was good enough to attract the 140-odd mares he covered last year. I'd be interested to see how well his book holds up this year.

Galileo's fee is currently advertised as "Private". As it's peak, Sadler's Wells' "Private" fee was rumoured to be IR£250,000. The current rumour mill puts Galileo on about €175,000, but I have heard that the horse is not in the best of health and his book of mares was dramatically reduced thie year. How true that is, I do not know, but if it is the case you can expect Coolmore to snap most of them up before they reach the sales ring. Rumour has it that Ballydoyle have around 50 Galileo 2yos this year alone!

 

Or Oddy you'd get almost 2 Frankel's for Fernando Torres

 

PN....Ah right, I had forgotten Galileo was also from Urban Sea, so fair point. I know STS is a very marketable stallion, How could he not be with his pedigree and race record, but I don't believe he had anywhere near the same natural ability as Frankel has. STS won the 2000 Guineas, and wasn't even sent off favourite for the Derby, that's because he won the Guineas in a workman like manner, not in the style of a superstar. It was only after the Derby that people started to take STS seriously.

I'm not surprised Galileo is in bad health, he probably needs a rest, it must be like being married to a nymphomaniac. He has produced plenty of classy horse's though so even if things do slow down for him, there are plenty to carry on the bloodline

 

Beef....I've replied to your comment in the first paragraph to PN

 

The rumour of Galileo having health issues is really interesting. I wonder if this is news that been a little late in coming out? If it's true, Coolmore must be looking for a replacement. Will then try going down the same line or put most of their eggs into the High Chaparrel basket?

Frankel for mine would be a better option as a sire than Sea The Stars, as he has the speed badly needsed to lift the pace of the middle distance crop. I think that is one of the main reasons why Coolmore paid so much for So You Think.

 

NEW APPROACH stood 2011 at £22,500.
His first yearlings sell this year, so their reception will dictate his fee for next year. His book has held up ok, covering 125ish this year, which is not far off his numbers from the previous 2 seasons.

Cyclonic - Galileo had surgery for colic in 2008 and I hear he has never really recovered from it. He may well have had another bout this year but I can't be sure.

 

I'm sure I'm repeating what many of you already know but Frankel very nearly WAS Coolmore's!

Juddmonte bred Danehill had when he was sold to Coolmore they retained breeding rights in him - ie the right to send a certain number of mares to him every year free of charge. The deal was that from the mares, Coolmore and Juddmonte would take it in turns to have first pick of the foals. When Danehill died the right was transfered to Sadler's Wells and his sons. This is why Coolmore raced Kind's (Frankel's dam) brother POWERSCOURT

The year Frankel was born it was Juddmonte's turn to take first pick.

 

I seem to remember another story along those lines Princess, I think it might have been Secretariat, but please don't hold me to it.

 

Have never understood why Juddmonte's Zamindar (sire of Zarkava etc) stands at £12000

 

I've always said, if I had the money, I'd send a mare to Zamindar. I think he's hugely underrated. I think his problem has been that he lived in his brother's shadow a the start of his career.
He then spent a year or two in the States where he contracted an equine STD, which put mare owners off him.

He's also not much of a sales horse. He's more the type the owner/breeders use, much like Cape Cross.

 

If I had a mare she'd be paying Zamindar a visit. I'd also use one of Dansili's brothers (probably Champs Elysees)

 

Sorry, misfire!

 

Surely he's worth more than that?! If i had the money i'd definitely buy him at that price. Frankel plus £5m or Sergio Aguero? No contest.

I thought Coolmore paid around £20m for a controlling half share in So You Think. If that is the case then surely a value of £30m for Frankel is realistic and possibly pessimistic.

 

Frankel may be valued at 30 million by insurers but he is worth alot more than that, Mr Abdullah clearly has chunks in the bank, so I don't think he would even entertaining the prospect of a 30 million bid. End of the day everyone has there price, even Mr Abdullah, I'm thinking 200 million+ would be the only bids that would make him atleast consider a deal.

They say his stud value would only be over 3 years, but he could go on breeding easily til he is 16-17 maybe more, obviously that would depend on how his first lot of offspring get on, but if I had 30 million I'd be more than happy to buy him as a stallion