As regulars on here may know and those from the old BBC606, each season partly in connection with the brb prediction league, I do a seasons points forecast thread for the Gills. These forecasts are created by me during pre-season on how I feel the Gills will do in their forthcoming season ahead for 2012/13. It is all light hearted stuff and nothing serious, however, when you come within 1 point some seasons of being correct, I thought I would share again my forecasts for this season. This season I have predicted a total of 83 points. For those that go and check the statistics on previous seasons and dependent on what season you look at, that total number of points are a fine line between securing automatic promotion and a play off place. We currently have 29 points after 12 games, while I had predicted 26 points after 12 games. So I am 3 points adrift! Not surprising when we are breaking the form book with our current points total. I had predicted no defeats within the first 12 games, Rochdale ruined my chances of succeeding in that area of my forecasts. There are obviously some negatives in my forecast as you would expect at some point during any season. I so hope I am wrong, my forecast predicts that will commence at Rotherham, through to Fleetwood (home) and York (away). Obviously not forgetting the long journey to Exeter before that, where I have predicted a solitary point. So in summary if my forecasts kept to there current track and excluding the additional 3 points we have picked up against that forecast. I would take those 83 points now, whether that be autos or play offs. But I know Mad Dog would not settle for second best in play offs. What games do you forecast will be the highs and lows of our season?
So another month has ended and to continue the theme of following the statistical progress this season our points total currently break down as follows: August - 9 points from 3 games maximum points September - 13 points from 6 games with 1 defeat and 1 draw October - 13 points from 6 games with 1 defeat and 1 draw You sometimes read comments looking around sites in regards to promotion by Christmas, whereas I hasten to add even if we kept up our current consistent season form, also bearing in mind our points per game are boosted slightly by achieving maximum points in August, the earliest I would gage auto promotion to be achievable beyond doubt would be the beginning of March, if there is no fixture backlog. Assuming 85 points would be the general requirement. So if we thought 35 points was a big achievement at this stage, its a little reminder that task is not yet even half done, with another 50 points required.
I'll say it again, once we reach 50 points total I know we are safe from relegation Then we can start looking at mid-table security, then play-offs then promotion.
