Whether you are a casual twitter user, or someone who can't go 5 minutes without checking it, you might have seen a squad player re-tweet a picture of the League One trophy shortly after the away win against Bournemouth (something I didn't see, but have heard/read it elsewhere). From that game, you sensed that the team were confident of going on as they have for pretty much most of the season, with our only two defeats stemming from two heavily deflected goals against Stevenage, and Leyton Orient respectively. It wasn't just our result against the Cherries, but the fact Sheffield United lost at home to Oldham, Wednesday held at Rochdale and Huddersfield drawing 3-3 at home to Bury. It was a meant to be a feel good moment to savour, as it's rare for everything to swing so suddenly (especially in the manner considering the last minute goals). But since then we have managed to pick up 4 points out of a possible 15. Included in those results are the debacle against Notts County and another surprising home defeat to Colchester. Add in Saturdays result and we've now lost more games within a month as we did in 7. Fortunately, earlier results and form allowed us a 12 point gap over our nearest promotion rivals, Sheffield United. That lead currently now stands at 8, but over Sheffield Wednesday, who apart from a blip at home to Walsall, look completely rejuvenated under new boss Dave Jones. Sheffield United are currently 9 behind, but with a game in hand against newly crowned Football League Trophy champions, Chesterfield. I'm not buying in to that game being a given towards United, as Chesterfield are currently embroiled in a relegation battle, and will be in a buyont mood after lifting a trophy at Wembley. Also, despite being in two separate Shires, a lot of the fans deem this as a derby(shire, geddit?) due to the relative short distance between the two clubs. Worst case scenario is a United win, reducing our gap to 6 points. Come Saturday, Charlton host Leyton Orient in a London derby at the Valley, whilst Sheffield United make the journey north to Hartlepool. Neither games are easy, but with respect to league positions you'd think Charlton should pick up all 3 points, whilst United will have a tougher time getting a win against Jeff Stellings boys. However, after this game I think United only have 1 tough fixture left in MK Dons away. I see potential banana skins for us in all three away games - Oldham (1-1 anyone?), Preston and in particular, a play off chasing Carlisle. I would like to think we could manage a minimum of 4 points from those games, meaning we would at least 3 home victories to make the title safe (I don't even want to consider settling for a automatic promotion place). Within my theory, I'm accounting for Sheffield United to pick up somewhere between 18-22 points, which would be an extraordinary effort- but possible. Sheffield Wednesday on the other hand have the toughest run in - playing Huddersfield, Colu and Brentford away. Im not ruling them out, but that is not going to be easy picking up maximum points from those games, plus winning all home games in the process. So, the impetus still remains with us despite recent form! Did the re-tweet show over confidence, which was perhaps reflective of the whole squad? Was it a question of thinking the job was done, and taking their foot off the gas? Sadly, I think thats the case. None of the teams we have lost to are better than us, and nor have we played anywhere near the standard that the team set earlier in the season. CP will surely be reminding his team of that today (you'd also assume he did it after Colu and Notts C). But right now, the boys desperately need back to back wins to bring a sense calm. Not only the fans, but evidently themselves too. In turn - we need to make sure we don't get on the players back at home. Turn out in voice and show them that we are fully behind them, and they'll return the gesture. It's not going to take much in terms of points to secure that title, but be sure it requires a mountain full of effort on that pitch to ensure it.
I like your analysis, SuperC. I said a while ago that It would probably be like the season we won the Championship, when we raced into a huge lead, ran out of gas near the end, took 2 points from our last 6 games and won by 2 points from Man. City. I'd take that right now!
I agree completely Super. I got shouted down for being negative when I made similar points over the weekend (I described it as squeaky bum time). I wasn't. I was simply reflecting the reality of the situation we find ourselves in. It's ours to win or lose which is a fantastic position but our form and the appearance of several loanees feels like déjà vu.
If the team remains as professional as it has been all season then we will go up no problem. I have every confidence that Chris Powell will not let them get carried away before time.
TBH We dont let many goals in - only 31 all season, by far the best in the top 6 . That will stand us in good stead in the run-in, and will give us the occasional point when we maybe dont deserve it. I also believe that the last 3 games we will win - mainly because we will be playing teams with nothing to play for (except maybe Wycombe), so Wycombe,Preston and Pools will be 3 wins - so 91 points minimum, plus whatever we can glean from the other 4 - for which i would expect at least 1 win and 1 draw - and thats being conservative , which gives us a total of 95 points, plenty enough for the the Trophy. Bookies dont make many mistakes, have a look and see what they think about our chances for winning the league... http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/winner and for promotion... http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/promotion and the predictions league which shows we (likely) need 2 wins and a draw to win the title and also for promotion too in the worst case scenario. http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/runin.html Dont worry, i'm not - and i've got 100 squid to lose on it !!!!!
If we were to take the last 7 games as an example of what could happen over the next 7 - lets assume that Sheff U win tomorrow, then the last 7 games for each club... Charlton 3 wins 1 draw 3 losses = an extra 10 points, giving a total of 92 points Sheff W 5 wins 2 draws 0 losses = an extra 17 points, total = 91 points Sheff U 3 wins 2 draws 2 losses = 11 pints more = 87 points Even if Sheff U convert 1 of their losses to a win and 1 of their draws to a win that would give them 92 points - same as us, but we have the better goal difference- at the moment.
Excellent summing up IMO, SC. I will feel a mild frisson of concern, not pressure or panic you understand, if we fail to beat Orient this weekend. They'll be there for the taking, a decent well managed side that has failed at any stage this season to put together a decent run or play up to its potential. We should win, and win well - if we don't, I think confidence will be badly shaken. 3-0 to us.
I think I replicate how you feel tewkes. Maybe it's not visible in my post, but I do think we will still win the league. It's just not as much as a given as it was a month ago. And regarding bookies- they will always make the team at the top favourites. It was only two weeks ago that man city were odds on to win the league. Maybe not at the same price as us, but I've never seen a team in second place be odds on .
Blimey, SuperC, did you type all of that out on your iphone? Good thread, though! Saturday will be the match when the faith is restored. I have one of those feelings in my bladder. Although it could be the diabetic medication again...?
blimey seconded! you`ll have to change your nickname to Homer as, at the moment, your articles are epic saturday will be fine. am flying in especially. i been a good boy recently so i fully expect to be rewarded with 3 points
Yes we need a victory on Saturday to calm the nerves, but just as importantly I'd feel a lot happier if our rivals all have a couple of bad results to stop their momentum, as in the worst, worst, worst case scenario there's the nightmare of both Sheffield clubs going on runs like Arsenal's current run (7 wins on the spin) and pipping us on the last day of the season... More realistically, we're just timing it so that we can get promoted at Carlisle
Not on the iphone - back at work y'day so wrote it on lunch with the comp (and perhaps a bit more in the afternoon ) Cal back in town eh? Better make sure we win or we know who bought the bad luck . Hopefully you will get to see a good game, and the boys turn it back on again. L.O are a good side, but as Tewkes said, they haven't filled their potential and haven't really been involved in either a relegation scrap or certainly not a promotion one. But London derbies are always a tricky one!
They have Mooney, Spring, Rachubka, Omozusi, and Campbell-Ryce in their squad, and they use them a lot. How many of those would we want in our first team instead of the players we have? They are an average Div One side and no better. That doesn't mean they are a bad side or incapable of beating us if we play badly yet again. I think there are no bad sides in our division and I would fancy any of the teams in the bottom five positions to bounce back next season if relegated, assuming they can keep their squads intact.
Does Omozusi have day release every Saturday? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...i-jailed-bid-gang-revenge-murder-witness.html But I like Rachubka and Campbell-Ryce.. the former, someone who was in goal the season B'pool got to the Premiership before missing the next season through injury, and Campbell-Ryce was someone I suggested the club look at in January. Then they have Dean Cox, Jimmy Smith, Dean Leacock and Marc Laird, aswell as Ryan Dickson and Taiwo on loan. I think they are a good side who have underachieved this season.
I liked Campell-Rice. He reminded me of Robbo, and I was disappointed with the way Rom always got the nod ahead of him.
Agree FHB- he always looked like the best of the youth in those days, but curbs went through that stage where he wouldn't trust them in the first team.
