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Effect of Brexit

Discussion in 'Watford' started by Davylad, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    “The time for easy slogans is over. Let's treat the British public like the grown ups they are and have the mature conversation we need,”

    Ruth Davidson writing in the Telegraph
     
    #3861
  2. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Apart from UKIP, whose very being has run its course, the only parties in the 2017 general election to lose vote share are all the anti Brexit groups, Lib Dems, Greens and SNP.

    The people clearly do not want to hold up Brexit.
     
    #3862
  3. yorkshirehornet

    yorkshirehornet Well-Known Member

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    I am sorry but this is another example of the faulty logic you often employ SH. I wont bother to detail it but this is simply an association not a correlation
     
    #3863
  4. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    Writing in The Observer on Sunday, Will Tanner ( one of the PMs former aides) said: “The prospect of another election hangs Damoclean-like over the Conservative party.

    “Whether it comes sooner or later, one thing is certain: the message needs to change.

    “If the party chooses to build a new consensus, it can triumph. If it reverts to the free market fundamentalism of the past, it will fall.”
     
    #3864
  5. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    It is impossible for you to argue with the facts. The anti Brexit argument failed to convince the British public which is why these parties lost vote share. I'm quite happy to be associated with facts rather than listen to the illogical views of one of your 'friends' etc

    UK vote shareafter 650 of 650 seats
    Party %
    CONConservative
    42.4
    LABLabour 40.0
    LDLiberal Democrat 7.4
    SNPScottish National Party 3.0
    UKIPUKIP 1.8
    GRNGreen Party 1.6
    UK vote share change since 2015after 650 of 650 seats
    −%
    +%

    LABLabour
    +9.5

    CONConservative
    +5.5

    LDLiberal Democrat
    -0.5

    SNPScottish National Party
    -1.7

    GRNGreen Party
    -2.1

    UKIPUKIP
    -10.8
    Find a constituency
    Search Consituencies by Postcode
    Constituencies A-Z
     
    #3865
  6. yorkshirehornet

    yorkshirehornet Well-Known Member

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    The point is the GE was not on Brexit... it was not a single issue vote. So can only say there appears to be a link but there is no significance in the bald data
     
    #3866
  7. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    Quite true, but the PM made a huge play for the country to support her on her view on Brexit. They didn't, and no matter how you choose to use figures, she had her majority taken away. She is clinging on like a dead leaf to a tree, but sooner or later the winds will arrive and blow her away.
     
    #3867
  8. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    What was very clear - there was no support for the anti Brexit parties. Brexit will happen, deal or no deal.

    If our beloved Conservative leader should fall there will be another elected very quickly. You will not see a repeat of the embarrassing Labour Party situation whereby nearly all of the MPs gave their leader a vote of no confidence, only for him to cling on for dear life.
     
    #3868
  9. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    #3869
  10. yorkshirehornet

    yorkshirehornet Well-Known Member

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    I see yet again YOU resort to emotives.... one of the things you complain about.....

    and

    sentence three is fact with no significant meaning as yes that will be an outcome if a leader falls

    sentence four is fact too.. ( and you could even say your beloved Conservative leader is hanging on for dear life)


    I don't see much serious debate in this???
     
    #3870

  11. yorkshirehornet

    yorkshirehornet Well-Known Member

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    #3871
  12. Bolton's Boots

    Bolton's Boots Well-Known Member

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    " there will need to be some form of new border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, in order to avoid smuggling between the UK and EU."

    Dare I be flippant and suggest that, if any such illegal activity does occur, the Tories will be at the heart of it anyway...
     
    #3872
  13. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    Yes it probably is flippant. :emoticon-0100-smile

    When on holiday this year I met a farmer from the south whose land is right on the border. He crosses it about 30 times a day on a tractor. The lorry driver who collects the milk from his farm also goes from one side to the other, going to farms in both north and south. Going by the rules that some of the Brexiteers want, he would have to pay duties every time he went across the border. The economies of the two countries are completely entwined. At present people from the north go and fill up their cars with fuel from the south, while people from the south go and buy clothing in the north. Put up cameras and car recognition cameras and they will be pulled down the day after they are erected. It is no wonder that no one from the the UK or EU has any idea how to deal with the problem, but my farmer was very worried that the nationalists from the south and north that he didn't support would use the situation to create violence again.
     
    #3873
  14. Chris 13

    Chris 13 Well-Known Member

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    The Irish border issue is almost impossible to solve - free movement of people from mainland Europe to Southern Ireland and then with no borders, free movement to the mainland UK - maybe free movement will remain and if so no problem but otherwise in about 4 or 5 years it may be civil war again.
     
    #3874
  15. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    Spot on Chris, and this is what really makes me angry. It took years and years to bring people often unwillingly to create a peace. It required politicians from both of the main parties in England, an American President and the EU to bring it about and guarantee the peace, and now for some half baked ideology all of those years are being put at risk. Ask someone who wants to leave the EU how to solve the problem, and you get no response. All that is of interest to them is what is in it for England. To hell with Ireland, Scotland and Wales. When the first deaths happen again I hope they can live with it.
     
    #3875
  16. Hornet-Fez

    Hornet-Fez Well-Known Member

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    More tiresome deflection. I've said earlier that they haven't got the cojontas to get us out of this mess.
     
    #3876
  17. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    It was entirely rational and correct for the majority that voted for the UK's dash for freedom to put the Irish border as a low priority of issues. It cannot be good for society to allow the threat from a few hundred paramilitary thugs to decide the Uk's relationship with the rest of Europe.
    The problems and the answers lie entirely with the Irish people. Most of the disagreements have nothing to do with Brexit, this just gives those wishing to make political gains an opportunity.

    There are two obvious and simple solutions, either the majority in Northern Ireland that voted to stay, campaign for a united Ireland or probably the best option is for Ireland to also leave the EU to protect its close trading relationship with the UK.

    Although Ireland has gained greatly from being a member of the EU it also caused substantial damage as they were unable to dampen the excesses in the economy which led to the financial crash. The inability for nations inside the Euro zone to control their own interest rates has been an unmitigated disaster to numerous members, especially to Southern nations.
     
    #3877
  18. yorkshirehornet

    yorkshirehornet Well-Known Member

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    It goes without saying that this is probably the biggest problem with Brexit.... coupled with the fact that the present Govt are in bed with the DUP.

    This looks to be a sorry mess.
     
    #3878
  19. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    Totally wrong. Northern Ireland is as much a part of the UK as Hertfordshire. London is also part of the UK and doesn't wish to leave the EU. Your argument goes that they should therefore be allowed to go along a different path. If it is good enough for the Irish to choose the way forward, then it is good enough for those in London to go the same way.

    To suggest that a campaign for a united Ireland is possible is silly. It is not going to happen. Your parties desperate decision to pay out 25% of what we paid the EU last year, gives the DUP the whip hand. I think you should be careful when you talk about thugs when you look at the DUP and some of their links. The Irish have said on numerous occasions they are not leaving. Your only suggestion is to break up the UK, something that some predicted would happen if the vote went the way it did.
     
    #3879
  20. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    I'm afraid you have it wrong again.

    There is history of UK governments giving Northern Ireland the option to vote to join The Republic of Ireland if there was a clear majority to do so. I am not campaigning for a united Ireland it is clearly the sole business and preference for them. I would imagine most past UK governments and UK citizens would be perfectly happy to ditch N.I.
    There are well organised thugs on both sides, many involved with organised crime and politics, no reason to pander to them though.

    If the EU insists on implementing a common tax regime throughout the EU it will damage one of Ireland's main trading advantages, this would lead to immense pressure for them to leave. Ireland is just starting to understand the difficulties to their economy that will be caused by not following the UK out of the EU.
     
    #3880

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