I've not let myself get carried away this season, but it's starting to get serious now! How many points do we think we will need to finish in the top 4? In my head I've got 70 as the benchmark. That leaves us 28 points from 16 games. 9 wins, 1 draw. Almost a victory every other game. In comparison Liverpool would require 12 wins. Spurs 11 and arsenal 11 plus a draw (presuming they lose tomorrow)... All from 16 games. Looking at our next 6 games, Swansea, qpr, West Ham, Liverpool, west brom and palace, there is very realistic chance we could collect 12-15 of the 28 needed. Leaving us on 54-57 with 10 games to play... Dare we dream ?
I'm daring to dream. I have an Arsenal supporting friend in my halls at uni. He still thinks we will choke. He's been saying for months.
I have nine wins as the target as well, and it's scary how easy it has become to look at the remaining schedule and find possible routes to that figure. Win two of the home matches against Swansea, West Ham, Liverpool and Tottenham. Beating Palace, Burnley, Hull and Villa at home makes six. Find another three in eight away matches that include QPR, West Brom, Everton, Stoke, Sunderland and Leicester. That's way too plausible.
Imagine what might have been if we had got something out of the home ManU match and the Arsenal game (which we could have done).
I see no reason why we couldn't beat Chelsea or Man City, but similarly no reason we couldn't lose to a lower side. These things happen.
This exactly. We lost to burnley at their place... Results like that are only going to become more common as the season ends near and teams fight for their lives...
Yes, we can dare to dream. 42 points. I think we are safe and can dream about another season in the Premier League
Too true FLT - as for where we finish - I am trying not to think about it too much. ''Each game as it comes'' as the old saying goes. Watched the game last night with some Geordies in a sports bar. All the EPL games are shown live here, so I kept looking from one huge screen to the next watching how Liverpool, Spurs and Man Utd were doing before our game started; it felt unreal. Then when the game began I said to them that before I would have been happy to go to St James and get a draw, but it feels so different; that intensity of where we might end up.
It all feels rather unreal, but with this group of players and this manager, anything is beginning to look possible. Of course it's helped that the teams immediately below us have all under performed so far. If we can finish above Spurs and Liverpool, which has been my personal dream for some time, then there's a good chance that will leave us in the top 4. I don't fear Man Utd, and I'm beginning to doubt whether Arsenal will pull off their traditional late rally for 4th (now watch them win today). But if Arsenal do take one of the top 4 spots, then the other one is between us, Spurs, Liverpool and Man Utd. I fear Spurs the most of all those. Just imagine if 25th April is a CL qualification 6 pointer.
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I am now absolutely believing in our chances of CL qualification. Looking at the past 10 years 4th place points qualification, the average is 70.9 with the highest being 79 (2013/14) and the lowest 61 (2004/05). In those years, sub 70 points has given qualification Phew this is going to be a roller coaster ride for the next few months COYRs
I think it will come down to a bit of luck with injuries and suspensions, Lose Fonte or Forster or Pelle for more than the odd game and it could unravel.
I don't want to get ahead of myself but it's definitely possible and my Arsenal-season-ticket-holding friend says he's more confident of catching Man Utd than us!
I streamed the second half of the Man United match yesterday and they looked terrible. And this was against a QPR side with Clint Hill at left back, a natural wing back as orthodox right back, a striker in right midfield and a central attacking midfielder in left midfield. All thrown together by a manager who has seemingly given up and constantly criticising them (implicitly) by moaning about his lack of funds to replace them with... Van Gaal is like Redknapp at the moment. Shoehorning players into a system that does not work. He is worried that he doesn't have the pace in his front two but is two scared to drop one of the highly paid megastars. So instead of using his pacey players as wingers in a 4-2-3-1 (Valencia, Di Maria, Januzaj) he is forcing Di Maria up front and Rooney into central midfield. And leaving two 25m + central midfielders on the bench every game (granted at least one of those two is definitely not worth that amount). It is bonkers. I am not surprised Arsenal are more confident of catching them!
This was something that had crossed my mind earlier this week. I think that Man Utd will eventually creep in to a Champions League position but the fact that we are grinding out unlikely looking results makes me believe that this is well within our grasp. The statistics regarding the number of shots on target our defence has allowed really surprised me and it gives me confidence that this team can go on and achieve this goal. It would be a travesty if Arsenal got a CL place and I'm not really convinced that Man Utd are deserving of one albeit I still think they have one of the strongest squads in the country. Spurs may be a surprise package yet I think Liverpool are too far off the pace. By rights, Southampton deserve a tilt at the CL on the basis of the season so far.
True but these things tend to average out over a season. I'm sure we will win a couple we don't fully deserve.
My only concern is that the chasers keep on winning, especially Spurs who seem to get from potential losses week in week out. Of course it is in our hands AND I haven't looked at who's playing whom. Inevitably some of the top teams will be taking points from each other.
I'm sure RK's attitude will be to ignore everyone else's results as there's nothing to be done about them. If the second half of our season goes like the first we'll be fine. Vin
