Cheltenham 2012 will see plenty of horses sent of 5/2 or shorter, more than I can remember for many years. Surely they can't all win but let's look at the contenders. Arkle Chase – Sprinter Sacre A devastating winner of the Game Spirit at Newbury on Friday has seen Spirit Son become many peoples Festival Banker. After pulling hard he sauntered clear of experienced rivals after an emphatic round of jumping. There are questions to be asked, can he pull like he did on Friday and still win? Will he get up the famous hill? We have seen many novices that look like bankers come unstuck at The Festival therefore…………BLOWOUT Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly Convincing winner of the race last year despite pulling very hard early on. Looked even better at Punchestown and after a facile win on seasonal debut looks very hard to oppose. The new kids on the block Grandouet and Zarkander look like giving the champ most to do but I believe Hurricane Fly will be to quick for Zarkander and has the stamina and willingness to battle to put Grandouet to the sword………..BANKER Mares Hurdle – Quevega With all Quevega’s challengers taking up other engagements the race has once again been left at this mares mercy. Only handicappers to beat and she should do this without coming off the bridle. The slight negative is we haven’t scene her this year but then again we never do………………BANKER RSA Chase – Grand Crus Grand Crus put in a quite brilliant display in the Feltham over Christmas, which saw him, become very short for this race and also the third favourite for the Gold Cup. We saw last year with TFR that getting close to Big Bucks can over rate some horses, this may not be the case with Grand Crus but winning in such style at Kempton is completely different to Cheltenham………….BLOWOUT World Hurdle – Big Bucks Going for a fourth straight World Hurdle and 16 consecutive victories over hurdles, has so much speed and stamina that even when it looks like he may be in trouble Big Bucks always pulls out more. He looked to be laughing at Grand Crus last year and can only see one outcome this time round…………….BANKER Gold Cup- Long Run Back to winning ways in the Denman chase when giving weight and a beating to some high class horses. This years Gold Cup looks to be a match between King Kauto and Long Run. The Gold Cup trip never seems to bring the best out of Kauto and as much as I would love him to regain his crown I can see the younger legs of Long Run galloping past up the Cheltenham hill to glory once more……….BANKER
It's Sprinter Sacre not Spirit Son. You can add Sizing Europe to that list aswell, he will be about evens also. I know it's not supposed to happen, but I wouldn't want to oppose any of them, il list them in order of how certain I think they are. 1. Big Bucks 2. Sprinter Sacre 3. Quevega 4. Hurricane Fly 5. Grands Crus 6. Sizing Europe 7. Long Run If all of these do go in, then the bookies are going to do there boll0cks
I for one hope you're spot on cityhull as I have Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run in various combination bets. Biggest bet is a double on the 2 most bombproof in my opinion - Quevega & Big Bucks. I did the same double last year, wish I'd done it the 2 years before as well
Thansk Shergar, slip of the mind! I've edited the post. Completely forgot about Sizing Europe, for what it is worth he has looked better than ever this year and doesn't seem to have any real challangers so would have him as BANKER Oddy I have Big Bucks, The Fly (9/4) and Long Run in a big treble should have added Quevega really
Im with you on that Oddy, Quevega is most bomb proof of the lot for me as she wont have to come off the bridle to win her race. BB will undoubtely get a test if Dynaste and the other pretenders turn up. Cant understand the odds personally as Quevega still longer odds than BB....
Interesting that you feel a novice chaser who has never seen the Cheltenham fences and who is 0-1 at the course is a bigger certainty than Quevega, who is 3-3 at the course having won those races by an aggregate distance of 28.5 lengths, and whose biggest rival is officially rated around 20lb worse than her. And for the record I think Sprinter Scare is a serious horse....
Grizzly.....I haven't seen Quevega on a racecourse for almost a year, I know she comes there fresh every year, but that would be my only slight negative, even though il still be backing her. Sprinter Sacre is the best horse in training, and he will win the Arkle by as far as Geraghty allows him to. You may think I'm talking rubbish, but I've been spot on from day 1 of his chasing career, and I will be amazed if anything can get him off the bridle in the Arkle, nevermind beat him
I don't think you're talking rubbish at all and of course we're all entitled to our opinions, I'm just questioning your judgement that a novice chaser is a bigger certainty than a proven course/distance winner, and if the conversation is about getting a horse off the bridle then no better example than last years Mares where Quevega won literally with her head in her chest by 10 lengths, and that came on the same day Sprinter Sacre came there tanking and failed to get home, I do accept there is likely to be significant improvement in Sprinter Sacre a year on though....
Has anyone read Geraghty's blog on ATR? - He says SS is the horse every jockey dreams of! That's a serious statement from a jockey who has ridden some decent horses! In my mind I'd still like to see SS "get" the cheltenham hill but a lot of people were opposing Hurricane Fly last year because he'd never seen Cheltenham. I've also read that SS had a wind op so maybe that will help? I'll probably be opposing SS but not with a great deal of confidence
I still think Sprinter Sacre is an uncertain banker. He was mightly impressive in the Game Spirit but hes never seen the Cheltenham fences and he faded badly when faced with the Cheltenham Hill in the Supreme last year, Maybe Nicky Henderson should employ Sir Ranulph Fiennes for the job as jockey, He might make it up the hill then! But to be beaten track records as a novice in second gear is freakish indeed if he can handle Cheltenham aswell as he's done the other tracks this year he will be hard to beat but a Banker... Not for Me! Big Bucks is a stonewall banker followed very closely by Quevega. I don't think Oscar Whisky will have enough in the locker to get past Big Bucks at the business end of the World Hurdle, I can't see another horse in the field capable of getting within 5 lengths of Big Bucks. As for Quevega, Yes we haven't seen her on a racecourse this year but she for the past 2 years shes had two races all season no prep race before Cheltenham and put away and re-produced at Cheltenham the following year to win another David Nicholson. There isn't a mare about who will give her a race over that distance at Cheltenham. She'll be hard to beat Sizing Europe as looked head and shoulders above any 2 miler this year, Unless Sprinter Sacre is unleashed in the Queen Mother and silences all the doubts about him staying on strongly up the hill, If he is aimed at the Arkle then I can't see Sizing Europe being beat in the Queen Mother. He thrashed Big Zeb just recently and his record around Cheltenham speaks for itself! Long Run looks beatable to Me, But thats the thing its beating him. I think theres only one horse capable of doing that in the Gold Cup field and that Kauto. Quel Espirit isn't good enough to win a Gold Cup IMO, He needs to find some 15-20lbs improvement between now and Cheltenham to even get near Long Run and Kauto Star. His record around Cheltenham is brutal aswell. I think the top two in the market will fight it out. Heart says Kauto, Head says Long Run (I'd be more confident in Long Run if that clown wasn't on top of him) Grands Crus is without a doubt the best novice staying chaser we've seen this year, Last Instalment was the biggest worry I could see but seeing as though he won't be there I think hes a justified favourite. I do think its a pretty intresting race, I've backed Join Together AP, I was very impressed with his last run at Cheltenham and backed him straight after for the RSA
With Nicholls yard suffering some sort of illness I would say Quvega is the biggest cert of the meeting. Big Bucks cant keep on churning out the victories. He hasnt looked bompproof this season. This year could be the one to take him on! Long Run is definitely the weakest on the list but surely only to Kauto Star.
I think if i were a bookie i would actually be worried this year as there has never been so many bankers that will be lumped on in singles and accumalators, they usually get away with it but i predict tears in the place of notes in the bookies satchels by the end of the meeting. In my book Quevega, Sprinter Sacre & Big buckes unbeatable Sizing Europe & Grand Crus solid in their position as favourite Long run & Hurricane fly Vulnerable I have been unimpressed with Long Run in particular, i think he has a class engine but does not jump well under pressure. If he has to jump at speed with horses right upsides him he is far from fluent, and he will not get away with this in the gold cup.
How as Big Bucks not looked bombproof? He's won 2 Grade 2's and a Grade 1 at a canter. He was eased to a walk in the Long Distance, Won on the bridle in the Lough Derg, And comfortably won the Cleeve with Mourad 17 lengths back in third who came out at the weekend beating Mikael D'Haguenet by nearly 6 and half lengths. Hes not been stretched in any of his three races so I don't understand that comment Stick...
He has hit a flat spot on every run this season Isty. Even on his last run when we expected it he traded 1/2 in running and Dynaste certainly looked like he was going to give him a race. As for Mourad, lol, Oscar Whisky is the opposition and if they had any Quvega! On Nicholls current form you wouldnt back him at odds on to win a championship race tomorrow! Or would you?
I get what you saying Stick but fortunatly the festival is 3 weeks away and like Nicholls as said hes headed into Cheltenham in 'poor' form before and ended up having a good festival. Im sure he'll be firing on all cylinders... I'd be more intrested in Quevega for the World Hurdle than Oscar Whisky if she went for it but she's likely to make it a 4 timer in the David Nicholson. Weather its tomorrow or next weekend I'd be confident in Big Bucks regaining the World Hurdle! Just My opinion
I tend to agree with Stick. I thought Dynaste had BB in serious trouble last time out but BB proved he still had it. That said could Dynaste improve enough to lay down a serious challange? Given Nichols issues BB is surely less Bombproof that he was and there are other quality horses in the race open to improvement. That said i think he will win. Is he a wheelbarrow job at current odds? No, i dont think so and if youve got a spare wheelbarrow around would be best emptied on Quevega. You can use the winnings for a free bet on BB after if you want!!
The same could have been said by the way Dynaste had Big Bucks at it early on at Ascot, But the way Big Bucks pricks his ears and wakes up to put the race to bed is why hes a genuine Champion. Dynaste may be open to more improvement but it still won't be enough...
