Hopefully its ok for me to start a new thread for tomorrow. 2.30 Ascot Lutine Bell 14/1 I really like the look of Mike Murphy’s runner tomorrow as he runs for one of my favourite trainers as his horses always seem to progress. After a successful beginning to his career with Sir Mark Prescott, which included 2 victories and 3 placed efforts ranging from 5f to a mile, he moved to his current yard in November last year where he romped to a winning 6L debut over 7f on the AW. Although winless since then, Lutine Bell has performed with a fair deal of consistency since, performing very admirably in 4 of his 6 subsequent starts. After being raised to a mark of 92 after the 6L victory, Lutine Bell’s mark has remained static at either 92 or 91, the former being todays mark, which I think is extremely lenient considering the excellent efforts he has strung together. After producing a below par 2nd effort for the Murphy yard, Lutine Bell produced a decent 1.12L 3rd behind Angels Pursuit and Seek the Fair Land, again on the AW. On his next start, Lutine Bell returned to the turf and ran out an excellent 1.56L 4th over 6f behind the excellent Horseradish, who subsequently ran a very credibly 1L behind Hoof It off a 4lb mark before being sold to Hong Kong. He was staying on strongly towards the finish, showing that a step up to 7f would be ideal. Perhaps more interesting than Horseradish, was Waffle, who finished only 0.75L behind tomorrows selection. Subsequently, Waffle ran an excellent 2nd to Deacon Blues at Royal Ascot, only narrowly failing by a neck as the line came too soon. In correlation with the form of this race, and off a 1lb lower mark today, Lutine Bell surely has an excellent chance. However, Lutine Bell has run another 2 excellent efforts. On 21 May, after a disappointing run at Ascot, Lutine Bell ran finished a good race to finish 1L 4th behind Crown Choice. This was another good run, emphasising the normally excellent standard that Lutine Bell runs to. On her final start, Lutine Bell was quite luckless from start to finish when finishing 3.31L behind Dungannon, a horse he finished 0.75L in front of on May 21 with only a 1lb swing in the weights and who reopposes today. According to the trainer, “the starter hesitated for a split second before opening the stalls which resulted in Martyn taking the hood off the horse a fraction early. The horse hit the gate and bounced back onto his hocks just as the gate opened” and after meeting traffic, he could not get into contention. Murphy futher cited “We were both thrilled with his run but disappointed as with a clear run he would have won.” This reaffirms my believe that Lutine Bell is well capable off winning of her mark of 92. LTO Lutine Bell missed the kick and ran an excellent race to finish 0.75L 3rd to Piazzo San Pietro, who reopposes tomorrow, with Lutine Bell being 4lb better off. PSP had a bit in hand that day but I think Lutine Bell can beat him. Lutine Bell is only 1lb higher for tomorrow and surely has a very good chance. This is a very competitive race with the excellent Ritual going for a 5 timer and Macs Power, who ran a great race on the wrong side at Royal Ascot. Another of my former selections Johannes opposes here too and looks to be getting back to his best off a nice mark. Pat Dobbs takes the ride tomorrow and although theres about 5 horses I could have put up for this, I will stick to my gut which is telling me Lutine Bell will win this.
3.15 York Moyenne Corniche 20/1 This is an extremely competitive race to solve but I am going to go for the hugely in form gelding trained by Brian Ellison in the shape of Moyenne Corniche. The fantastic record of 11 Ellison means he warrants respect. This well bred 6 year old, despite only winning once in his career, is a very consistent horse and can definitely play a major role at the finish. For the vast majority of his career he has been campaigned at 8f and it wasnât until he joined the Ellison yard in late 2010 that he was campaigned over the more testing middle distances. This seems to be ideal for the horse as in his 5 starts for the Ellison yard to date he has finished 2nd three times and 3rd twice, although one of the thirds was disqualified. In all 5 runs for his current yard, he has finished 1.28L or less behind the winner and is quite unlucky not to have gotten his nose in front. The form of his effort in Hamilton seems to be panning out well with Foxhunt, who finished just behind todays selection, winning subsequently twice, including an impressive 2.25L victory last week at Royal Ascot. With Moyenne Corniche having being campaigned at 1m 6f as his longest distance, his ability to stay the trip is a big doubt. However, Brian Ellison gave an interview on ATR recently stating that if he stayed the trip (which he thought he would) he would have a massive chance. LTO Moyenne Corniche looked the winner all over in the Northumberland Plate as he travelled like a dream but just didnât stay the 2m. He is dropped back to 1m 2 1/2f tomorrow and although I would absolutely another couple of furlongs. Still, he has won over shorter and I still think he is capable of winning at this distance and looks vastly overpriced at 20s. The excellent claimer Sam James, who I have noticed seems to be on half of my selections, is intriguingly brought over from Ireland for 1 ride which I think is very significant. This gelding is clearly in good health and I am hopeful that despite only one win to date Moyenne Corniche can come home in front. This is a hot hot race though and Moyenne Corniche will have to be at his absolute best to take this
Early one for me, SPIFER, 5.55 Newmarket Fallon rode this one last time out at Kempton over 1m2f, and finished like a train, stepped up to 1m4f tomorrow should relish the trip, and hopefully compensation awaits (for me anyway!!!) and is a decent bet for me, no prices yet though.
Im off to York as well for the 1st time tomorrow. Ive been convinced to back Group Therapy in the 1st after reading peoples comments on here. I like Pekan Star whos is getting a bit to short now at 4/1 but I think he'll win so it doesnt matter what price really and I like Ladys First in the 4:25, not sure what price she is at the miute though
As I'm going to York I'm gonna concentrate on York. Makes sense aye.. 2:05 York - Hamish McGonnagall Tim Easterby has endured a brilliant year so far and I think it can get better in the opener tomorrow; This 6yr old who has performed well in group company this year can enjoy this step down in class and collect this prize at a course where he has performed creditably in the past. 2:40 York - Vulcinite trained by Ralph Beckett and still relatively unexposed of this level having won 5 of his 9 starts. Performed well on seasonal reappearance at pontefract lately when not having much room towards the finish; tried at listed level once again and will have my opinion come on alot for the run. Still has stamina to prove at this distance but worth a go in a competitive heat. 3:15 York - Pekan Star A half brother to Blue Ksar and French Derby winner Blue Canari, Pekan Star has come into his own when upped in trip to ten furlongs and being by Montjeu would suggest that middle distances are his trip and with him only being lightly raced he can get of the mark here. Yes he's 4/1 but the bigger the field the better the favourite as the saying goes. I've heard good reports and apparently this Roger Varian trained colt is a monster.. therefore he's my NAP of the day. In the rest of the races... 3:55 Captain Bertie has an ew chance... 4:25 - Discression has an obvious chance to open his account... whilst Last Bid 5:00 can have give Tim Easterby a double on the card. At HQ Fort Bastion & Striking Spirit can start the day off well (The latter... Tim Easterby again.. attracted to his runners today for some reason) That should clear me out for the day LOL Will update in morning with any info I receive.
If these stay at the prices forecast they look pretty good to me: Salisbury: 6.15 Redact 2/1 7.50 Marahab 9/4 8.25 Elrasheed 4/1 8.50 Azamera 15/2 Hamilton 6.30 Midnight Dynamo 10/1 Newmarket 5.55 Spifer 5/1 and at 66/1, I have to have Winker Watson ew in the Darley Cup
I have work committments unfortunately and will be away from TV/laptops but do have some selections to leave. Newmarket 2.55: SHAMANDAR 14/1 (NAP)- Excellent reappearance after two years off the track when 6th in Victoria Cup and was outclassed in a Group race subsequently. Back in a handicap today and dropped 2lb in the handicap. Should be spot on for this. 3.35: DREAM AHEAD 15/2- If Delegator is the one class horse in the race then Dream Ahead is the other. I thought he made a terrific reappearance behind Frankel and over the 6f today can really go close. Overpriced providing the ground doesnt harden. York 2.40 ICON DREAM 33/1 ew I retain my faith in this horse that it can land a staying handicap this season and has ran far better than the form figures suggest here. It MUST be closer in mid division this time though than out the back when running on too late in the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate. But has run well enough so far for Simcock. 4.25 LADY's FIRST 7/1 (Projected)- Bred to be pretty smart I think and the Fahey bandwagon rolls on. Favourite looks strong but of the newcomers this looks very neatly bred.
I'll be having small investments on Modun and Eightfold. But bet of the day Fort Bastion 2.20 Newmarket.
This will be one of my biggest bet for a while. I have been waiting for Side Glance to run. IMHO I believe it's just a matter of time before he wins a Group 1. He is progressing nicely… SG dispatched of The Cheka well enough in a listed contest and The Cheka beat multiple G1 winners Regal Parade fairly easily in a group 3 contest afterwards. The Rectifier who came behind SG has also been running very well coming close twice in competitive races. On the previous occasion SG also beat St Moritz by 6L and a few others even further. A few have also been running well. The form is rock solid. I think Dick Turpin will come second. The only tiny threat I see if DT is back to his very best then it will be a close finish. I hope I’m not wrong about this. Ascot 3.45 Side Glance (4/1) 5pts win or 3pts EW (nap) Personally I will be doing at least 10pts win/EW but advise a more cautious approach if I have any followers.
I took 9/2 but already shortening up badly. Now 7/2 many places... 4/1 still available but doubt that will last long. EDIT: Damn Cityscape non runner. Heavy rule 4 reduction... I done the bet on betfair. I wish I did antepost now with bookies.
Morning all. I'm singing off the same hymn sheet as you STB Side Glance would be my main fancy on a very difficult Saturday. Though must say STB I'm most concerned by the small field and the high risk of a dawdling gallop could leave it a very messy race....That's more of a concern to me than Dick Turpin, who I think has lost the plot somewhat. Done a speculative punt on Dream Ahead Thursday night at 12-1 in hope they would get a decent amount of rainfall to soften it up but it seems conditions will be quick enough for him so don't really fancy him at all now.
Beef I also backed Dream Ahead EW... I've done a win, place only, place only treble with Paddys respectively for the Side Glance, Dream Ahead & Fox Hunt.
Good luck STB I keep thinking Hamish McGonagall looks a 'good thing' in the 14.05 but I hate sprints, especially these 5 furlong affairs
I think today I will have tiny wagers 0.1pt EW on prices 10/1+ and 0.1pt win otherwise on all the selections posted in the competition. I will gradually increase the bets if I'm doing well...
Very disappointed that Cityscape is an NR as the class between him and old Dick Turpin would have been a real highlight. A Group 1 in all but name. I would have expected old boy Charlton's runner to have been hard to beat this afternoon. But not one to dwell on 'what might have been' instead I will return to the 'here and now' and advise that today isn't really one that I like much. However at the prices the ones that appeal are Star Witness, in the old July Cup, Sir Michael's Modun, in the big 'un at York and across the county line at Ascot (2.30), in the big sprint handicap, it has to be the most progressive Ritual. Good luck one and all.
Excellent racing today and those that are heading to York should have a cracking day. Like the look of lots today, but have settled for a couple of Lucky 15's. My main one is: Ascot 2.30 - Mac's Power (Nap) Chester 4.00 - Wells Lyrical York 2.05 - Hamish McGonagall York 3.15 - Pekan Star Good Luck all.
2.55 Newmarket Mont Agel 14/1 To hungover to write anything substantial but fancy this 1 quite a lot. Put up a great effort 2 starts ago to lose by a neck to St Moritz, who has subsequently come out and finished 0.5L 2nd. Form of that race is working out nicely, with Mont Agel having no chance at all with the draw LTO at Royal Ascot. Hayley Turner takes over from Murtagh in the saddle, and she was on board for the narrow defeat. Drop down to 7f
