I'd be laying Dawn Approach at his price. Looked a very good 2 year old but some horses don't have a great deal to find on the form book notably Cristoforo Colombo and Olympic Glory who could both have more improvement in them. And that 8 grand they've paid to enter Dawn Approach in the Derby is complete and utter madness...
What is 8 grand to sheik mo? Lol, probably about 5p to me or you! Dawn Approach will win the Guineas, and go into the Derby as the horse to beat. Don't forget he's was a late foal, so the fact he was so dominant at 2 proves what a beast he is. If anything Dawn Approach will get even further ahead of the competition as he catches them up in maturity. His dad was a derby winner so to dismiss him for that is laughable, I realise his mum was a speedy type but I wouldn't dismiss him for the Derby. Sea The Stars was never a guaranteed stayer on pedigree and look how he faired. Sometimes class can help them stay
A lot less than 5p i would have thought. Unless your minted shergar. BTW i hope you had your rare AP bet and lumped on at 7/4. Price long gone now.
Agreed that 8k is obviously pocket money for Sheikh Mohammed but theres noway I can be having Dawn Approach as a Derby horse. Was Mill Reef the last Coventry winner to go onto Derby Glory? Do we really believe he's that class? Jim Bolger laughed at the idea of the Derby when asked about it last year, He was sceptical of him getting 10 furlongs nevermind 12 furlongs around Epsom. There was more in Sea the Stars pedigree that suggested he'd stay being out of Urban Sea who had already produced a Derby winner in Galileo. The Dam side of Dawn Approach suggests alot of speed - I just can't see it personally He's obviously got a great chance in the Guineas but at 5/4 I've got to take him on this stage, I don't see him in the class of Frankel and I don't think this is a weaker Guineas than the one Camelot won last year which as turned out is one of the weakest renewals of the race ever run. I remember getting My fingers burnt very badly by St Nicholas Abbey. Im a big fan of Bolger and for him personally I'd love to see him win the Guineas for the first time but as a betting proposition 5/4 rubs Me up the wrong way. I don't see him as a 5/4 shot in this field...
He is actually 6/4 with PP, and yes I did have a lump on at 7/4! The reason he is that short is because his form figures read 111111, including 2 G1 victorys, and 1 of those victorys was on the same track over 7f. It is rare for a horse to win the Coventry and the Derby but he won the Coventry like a horse who wants further, that race was the closest he came to defeat, though once upped to 7f he was even more dominant, and a mile should bring out even further improvement. Saying he is no Frankel is harsh. No horse is Frankel, and il be amazed if I ever see another Frankel. He does however have far better credentials than St Nicholas Abbey did. So again comparing him to him is wrong. Obviously there could be a ringer in the pack, I remember how much of a certainty his Dad New Approach looked in the guineas, and he was beaten just by a horse he was miles superior than at 2. Only just though! I realise those risks, but even now I believe there is going to have to be something extra special lurking in that field to stop him. Frankel aside Dawn Approach has to go down as one of the most impressive 2 year olds for a good few years. I'd say even more impressive than his Dad. You also have to factor in the form of Jim Bolger aswell, the guy is on fire, you would be winning a small fortune if you'd been backing all his runners so far this season, and I'm sure he will have Dawn Approach in fine form for this. I'm going to put my neck on the line abit here, but il be amazed if he gets turned over
You could be right Shergar, Obviously at this moment in time he does look the most likely winner but I just don't like the 5/4 everything is a price and I wouldn't back him at 7/4 What I meant by the comparison to Frankel was I could see why Frankel was as short as he was antepost, I had no reservations in saying he was the best 2 year old I'd ever seen after I saw how he won the Royal Lodge. Even though it looked workmanlike in the Dewhurst I just knew he had something about him that looked out of the ordinary. I don't get that with Dawn Approach but like you've said were all unlikely to ever see another Frankel At the moment in time I think theres value elsewhere in the Guineas field, Cristoforo Colombo, Olympic Glory, Moohaajim at 16's. Breeding suggests he'd appreciate a step up from 6f. Looks to be an intresting year for the 3 year olds....
He's absolutely the right favourite on everything we have seen. He has a good combination of speed and the New Approach stamina should see him through nicely over a mile. The Derby would be great to watch but perhaps there are stamina doubts. Then again, not many slow horses tend to win Derbys these days! I'm convinced Pour Moi would have won over 10 pretty easily, Sea The Stars did, Camelot will be better over shorter, so you can never say never. For me though he looks a bit like a George Washington- ideally suited to 1m but could get 1m 2f under the right conditions. Its early days for New Approach offspring so its hard for us to compare him to anything- let him do the talking I say and we'll see where we sit after The Guineas.
I havent been this confident about a horse since So You Think in the Prince Of Wales last year. Love him, the head, the eyes, he is the real deal, New Approach without the temperament is what im picking up from listening to Manning and Whelan. I dont think he will stay as well as the great one, and he will never be a Frankel or a Sea The Stars but he is a serious Group 1 miler and he is a special horse in his own right. Im pretty sure it will be Guineas then Irish Guineas, and if Bolger has his way, St James Palace. He only has an entry in the Derby because the Sheik wanted it. As for the dangers, I dont see anything legit at this stage, Bolgers are on fire and according to Whelan he is improving all the time, "different gravy" he said. please log in to view this image please log in to view this image Hopefully he is still odds against on the day and I will go in again, always the risk with antepost, checking everyday just to make sure nothing has happened.
A contraversial opinion I know, but I think New Approach was more talented than Sea The Stars, he just didnt have a great temperament
Haha, that's what opinions are all about Shergs, and with horseracing theyre all unproveable! Sea The Stars for me still gets underrated. I think he'd have made some 4 year old too, went through the gears very easily for a 12f horse. I remember his Arc win when he pulled like a lunatic for half a mile and he still put the race to bed in seconds and saw it home. That wasn't a bad bunch of 3 year olds either, and he beat them all. New Approach from what I have watched on youtube was very good. I don't understand why he didn't go to the Arc- did they give reasons at the time? (I wasn't watching racing then)
He got injured after the Derby and after his run back in the Juddmonte and lacklustre run in the Irish Champion it would have been madness to take on Zarkava. It looked as though he wasnt the same horse, but the Champion Stakes was arguably his best performance and had Bolger known he was back to that level then he might have considered the Arc imo. Plenty will tell you they were scared of Zarkava tho to put him down, even tho she was probably the greatest filly of all time.
Hi there, I have been lurking here for a while without posting, but as I like the flat season I decided to throw my hat into the ring. I noticed that nobody has mentioned Reckless Abandon. He has course form over 6f. I noticed his pedigree is fairly speedy, do people think he will not stay the mile? Personally I feel Cristoforo Colombo is very ordinary and is only rated because of his trainer. Dawn Approach certainly looked dominant last season, and though he was campaigned intensively, Bolger followed a similar approach with New Approach. He certainly has the race experience to cope with the hustle and bustle of a large field G1 race.
My personal opinion on that horse is that as good a 2 year old he was, i think he had very minimal scope for improvement as a 3 year old and will get left behind this year.
Reckless Abandon is staying sprinting, Clive Cox said he won't be going for a mile trip. He more than likely will head for a crack at the Diamond jubilee stakes at Ascot over 6f Welcome to the boards.
Hawkeye, why do you think he's got minimal scope as a 3 yo? Even if that's true, and I completely disagree, does he need to improve? Wouldn't his 2 yo performances give him a fantastic chance of winning the 2000?
He was born on the 23rd of April, so he was already beating horses who were 3 months older than him last season, so chances are he has more development left in him than alot of his rivals from last year
One of the handicappers thought that as well, he certainly wasnt your typical precocious 2yo, he will improve at 3 I have no doubt about that. Others are certainly open to more improvement physically but they have a fair bit of catching up to do. Because he is a short price now for the Guineas a lot of people will start looking for reasons to oppose him and if this game has taught me anything at all, its that if you look hard enough for a reason you will find it. For me he is absolutely bombproof in the Guineas, the proverbial jailcase. Unbeaten World Champion 2yo, best son of the champion first season sire, Coventry, National Stakes, Dewhurst. Horses he has beaten have won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, the Phoenix Stakes, the Flying Childers, the Superlative, the Vintage, the Richmond, the Railway, the Molecombe, the Cornwallis and the UAE Derby. When the game gives you those rare goodthings at odds against, you take them with both hands.
Completely agree Joe, he's a very special colt. Other than Frankel he's the best juvenile I've seen for along long time. There is nothing entered in the Guineas that I'm worried about, as the rest just seem like much of a muchness to me. Hence why the bookies are going 9/1 the rest of the field
