Only 2 and a bit weeks away, so who do we fancy can beat the 11/4 fav Auguste Rodin, if any? I'm plumping for Noble Style at 8/1 We have seen form blown out of the window the last couple of days, and it happens every day of the week, especially when it comes to translating 2yo form to 3yo races. To a large extent, that can be expected as most good trainers look after their best youngsters with a 3yo career in mind. Of course some 2yos are so good and mature into very good 3yos as well but, unfortunately most of us don't get to see what the trainers see or their thinking. So form is all we have to go on With this in mind, I have tentatively gone for Noble Style and here is why: Chaldean's chances were given a boost today when the horse he beat twice last year won the Craven in a decent time in the Dewhurst Chaldean beat Royal Scotsman by a head, in a fast time on good ground Noble Style won the Gimcrack "going away" with Royal Scotsman 8l back in 5th, also on good ground (and a decent time). That was Noble Style's third run prior to that Noble Style won at Newmarket on fast ground, so acts on the course even on debut Noble Style won well at Ascot in a decent time all of Noble Style's wins have been at sprint distances but by Kingman out of a Pivotal mare, he should get the mile Auguste Rodin has never ran at Newmarket, has won his 3 races on heavy, soft and yielding. On his only run on good ground (his debut) he was well beaten by Crypto Force in a very slow time There are several that look to have decent chances. We don't know how good these unbeaten colts are We don't know how well many of these 2yos have trained on. 2 Newmarket winners have done so So there are some ifs, but there are a few big IFS about the favourite, which is why I go against him, especially at those odds I have only given my reasoning for beating the 2 favourites, not necessarily all the rest
I get it that you’re not keen on Auguste Rodin ( subject of my French thesis) and I tend to have doubts myself. And what’s wrong with Little Big Bear? Is he not going for the English Guineas? He certainly progressed last year and is hard to fault. For the 1000 Guineas, Tahiyra certainly appeals at 4/1. On form, she should be much shorter, but might the Aga Khan target the French equivalent with her? If she’s 4/1 on the day, that’ll do for me.
As I said Tam "I have only given my reasoning for beating the 2 favourites, not necessarily all the rest "
I think this Classic is very open. I very much liked Isaac Shelby today and if it comes up soft in 2 weeks he could go close. Would Chaldean have beaten him today? Who knows.
I was quite taken by Canberra Legend's victory in the Feilden Stakes. He won despite paddling through the dip, powered up the rising ground and looks a nice type. I'm not sure whether he will take up his entry in the Guineas, on breeding they will probably look to go Dante then Derby but in an open-looking 2000 Guineas he could be a lively outsider. 33/1 available in places but you'd want NRNB before taking a chance on him.
I will declare before I start that I was a Chaldean fan before Frankie got ejected from the saddle on Saturday; and I am prepared to accept the excuses about the other horse bumping him. Now I will leave it until the day of the race as the ante-post market is not worth playing with the going to take into account. As has become the case in the last twenty years, the trials races have become largely irrelevant as many trainers (especially Aidan O’Brien) have just gone straight to the Classics. I have thought that Auguste Rodin was not a Guineas horse so punters should wait until the day of the race. If Ballydoyle run several then oppose him (it is just a Derby trial) but if they only run a couple he is the real deal. His Derby price is a joke as it is based on where he lives – if he wins the Guineas he will be Even money for the Derby and you would be best off watching the FA Cup Final! Of the Classic trials at Newmarket and Newbury this week, I saw no Guineas winners unless better horses run poorly. Whilst Remarquee won well, she lacks the experience to win at HQ.
After a frustrating Saturday afternoon I’m taking the positives where I can - despite being riderless Chaldean ran on to the line and looked very genuine. He battled when the winner came alongside him, having started to ease up, and he’s proven he can handle the undulations at Newmarket. I’m not losing hope just yet!
Noble Style drifting in the market. Now 16/1. Silver Knott now the top Godolphin horse in the market at 14-1.
August Rodin must be some horse but I was disappointed to hear that the CoC had his watering can out earlier in the week. He spoilt the race last year. Anything softer than good will be to his advantage. My money is on Indestructible. I thought that was the best trial winner this year. Must be worth an EW punt.
Still siding with Chaldean and 7/1 is a huge price for a Dewhurst winner going into this race! Probably given him the kiss of death now, but my money is on at that price. Won’t get to watch the race live as I’m out of town for a family wedding, but I will try to catch up on the result later in the day. Good luck all!
