The EU debate - Part III

I can count to 4, I even have a certificate that says so

 

4th Wayne (Dan)?

 

Ffs! americanised twaddle on an eu thread

 

I don't mind a caravan holiday tbh. I'm not called Wayne though.

 

He won't have even watched it himself. But he'll expect you to. And to give an opinion, which he never does.

 

You keep making feeble, inaccurate claims like that, instead of posting about brexit.

Funny how some claim I'm transparent and apply thoughts I never made, yet others clearly need spoon feeding. You ladies need to get your act together.

The economy was everything for some, and leaving was going to lead to financial Armageddon, yet when something's posted that shows the economy is okay, and the EU is in poor state so we're probably better off out, we get silly attempts to personalise things as a tool to avoid discussion.

 

Because you constantly prattle on about things you clearly know **** all about.

Deutsche banks's problems have nothing to do with the EU. Their major problems are an enormous derivatives book, which there are major concerns about the valuation of. Mainly because many of the more complex derivatives are next to impossible to value accurately. They allegedly have a book of around $45 trillion!...

Plus they have major problems with the US justice dept over misseliing mortgage backed securities. They are currently subject to a $14 bln fine.

They do have large cash reserves, however.

The problem, as we saw in 2008, is loss of confidence - whether justified or not - that can easily turn to panic. Your shares get sold down to nothing, your credit lines get pulled, and you're dead.

 

You're a touchy tart.

Its problems may or not be EU related (I never said they were), it's influence on the Greek situation had an influence for example. but the consequences certainly are.

There's talk of needing to bend the bail out rules again to save it, which could be the salvation for the Italian banks, as they could be used as a precedent as they're falling apart.

A bail out would cost the EU members.

If they don't get it right, which ever way they go could make the brexit vote academic.

 

The global banking system took a seismic shock in 2008. It has never made a recovery, indeed as have not the major economies of the world. And ever since there has been a global problem.

Italian banks have been a basket case as long as I can remember. It's really nothing new....

If I'm a touchy tart' you're an ignorant one!...

If the European banking system collapses, you won't have to worry about your precious Brexit. It'll take the global economic system down with it...

 

There's no IF.

It's good that you're now opening up to the global influence on our economy, rather than limiting things to it all being EU based. The Deutsche and Italian banks are in a poorer state than many and as you say, they've been deteriorating and limping along for long enough, and the bill for propping them up is liable to fall to member states more an more in one form or another.

 

That's not strictly true Spain, the US economy has grown by around 15% and the UK by around 8% since 2010. The only economy which has stagnated is the EU (overall not individual member states).

 

Growth is still way down on pre recession levels.

You have only to see where global interest rates are, that tells you exactly how fragile the global economy still is!...

 

Because today's banking is a global business, you dullard!...

I will repeat, Italy's banking system has been in crisis since time immemorial!...

 

I agree. It's part of why I kept mentioning the global situation when people mentioned changes in economy and blaming it all on brexit.

 

Two separate issues, entirely.

Brexit will damage the UK economy at a time when it was showing good signs of returning to healthy growth.

We had all the benefits of being members of the EU, but were not members of their potentially disastrous single currency experiment.

Unfortunately, that has all been thrown away because too many little Englanders are scared of foreigners!...

 

Growth has averaged around 3% since 1992 and since 2010 at around 2%, with this year being close to 3%, so whilst you're right, not the huge hit some have argued.

You have also changed your tune. When I mentioned that I voted remain because I didn't think we could cope economically, you rubbished that claim and told me the economy was fine?

 

I have not changed my tune at all.

The economy was going along nicely pre the referendum. It has held up better than I expected, but I fear that it's mostly the Lag factor.

Next year the lower pound will start to bite on prices and inflation. If, as expected, the public has less disposable income, they will pull in their horns, and growth will slow,

 

Whilst we are not part of the failing euro, as a member state, our contributions would have likely had to raise to bail out the European banks.
The UK is likely to have the largest growth of all of the European member states, so perhaps the EU benefits aren't as great as you are making out.

 

Not entirely separate, and nothing to do with the repeated nonsense about little Englanders or 'fear' of foreigners. That's just the attitude people rejected in the referendum, and gets ridiculed now. Have a look at the video by the socialist I posted earlier.

Being yolked to a crumbling EU is going to be an unnecessary burden on our economy. The economy would have dropped, and if it does next year, that will be ignored by some, who will still try to blame it on brexit.

 

Why do you say was when it still is? Where's the financial Armageddon you and others were predicting?
I think it will bite next year, but the £ has gained some ground on the € and $. This may (I hope) lessen the impact. Time will tell.