The only unity in the EU is amongst the fiddling eurocrats protecting their prized pensions. It is easy for them to posture in the early stages of negotiations but self interest will undoubtedly dominate later, the Germans will ensure that.
Don't make any assumptions about Germany SH. In September we may see a completely different government elected here.
There are many EU countries facing elections, the one thing they all have in common is massive increase in support of rightwing causes and eurosceptic ideas. The political left in most EU countries has been utterly rejected. On balance, I would predict the changes, like Trump's USA, will benefit the UK's cause.
There are only 3 countries facing general elections in 2017 SH. I can make no comment about what may happen in the Netherlands or in France. In Germany we have 3 state elections and one national one. There are only 3 possibilities in Germany. The first is that the present coalition holds on with a drastically reduced majority - the second is that they have to call the Greens into the ruling coalition (not sure if we will play ball on this) - the third would be a red - red - green coalition (the SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens). I acknowledge that the AfD will see an increase in their share of the vote - but the end result will be a shift in a leftwards direction.
Geert Wilders, is the soar away leader in opinion polls in his country's elections. He is calling for a quick exit from the EU because of Merkel's 'stupidity'. He states "We have a political elite at the top not listening to them and that is why parties like mine all over Europe getting votes" The political left in France is in disarray, they are predicted to not even make the second round of voting in next years elections. The Presidential election will probably be between a Thatcherite right candidate and a further right candidate with disastrous economic policies. The Italians are soon to have a referendum in which the present leftwing government could fall. There is the possibility that the Five Star Movement, who want a referendum on membership of the EU, being elected. Norbert Hofer, has a chance of being Austria's first far-right head of state if he wins next months election. Can you see a pattern emerging?
I get the feeling very strongly that you want the EU. to fail. Do you not realize the economic turmoil which such a thing would cause ? Can you not give credit to the fact that the EU. has, on the whole, been a successfull coming together of some very different countries to create the largest economic and political unit which has ever been established voluntarily - all others have been established by force. That the EU. has actually forged 28 different countries into the most successfull trading block in World history. Yes, there will be problems. One of those is that Germany is not suited for a leadership role - Britain and France could have had this had they ever cooperated fully, and if Britain had not always preferred to criticize from the sidelines. There are enough Europeans who, though not entirely satisfied with the workings of the EU, believe it is better to stay and reform from within rather than throw all their toys out of the pram like Britain did - and these Europeans are the majority. There is the World of difference between being Eurosceptic and running away.
I certainly want the present anti democratic set up to fail. I suspect most of the population in the EU are also uneasy about the current direction the eurocrats are wanting to head to. Most of the present serious problems are due to very bad decisions taken, without any consultation of the people, by these unelected eurocrats. Brexit, rise in the right wing and large scale terrorism can all be blamed on these selfish, elitist fools. Of course there are some successes but they have caused misery to millions of Southern Europeans. The EU is so fragile at the moment it will not take much to radically change the present make up. The fall in the value of the Euro against the USD should also be a major concern, the money market is losing confidence in the Euro project. The Greek debt problem is still to be address and Italian banks are in an awful state. Lastly, the anti EU attitude of the Trump administration could be the final nail in the coffin.
Angela Merkel has announced a dramatic u-turn on her disastrous 'open door' policy after her drubbing in local elections by the populist AfD far right party. Her mantra now is repatriation, repatriation, repatriation as she plans to deport 100,000 migrants who arrived in Germany last year. I wonder if she is thinking about her election chances next year? The EU will debate the 'temporary' allowance of national border control within the Schengen area early next year. With Erdogan of Turkey threatening to push over 3 million migrants into Europe I doubt if any fences will ever come down.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bori...ogant-european-union-brexit-2016-11?r=UK&IR=T it didn't take too long for the EU to lose patience, did it? Now they have an inkling of how many Scots feel after three centuries of rule by inbred Old Etonians...
Nigel Farage has announced that his march of 100,000 people to the Supreme Court in December will no longer take place due to a lack of interest. Should save some a train fare.
This from the man who advocates jail for women who have abortions - And who apparently doesn't know what Cuba Libre actually is....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38199310 Interesting article about what may be going on inside the Tory party. An example: Mr Grieve, former Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt, ex-transport minister Claire Perry, education select committee chairman Neil Carmichael, and Bath MP Ben Howlett, said the Richmond Park result must serve as a wake-up call for the party. "The Conservative Party needs to be alert that there is a moderate core of Conservative voters, who voted Remain, and who want to hear the Conservative government speaking above the noise of the Brexiters," the quintet wrote. "They do not want the Conservative party to be UKIP-lite, nor to hear that their desire for a negotiated Brexit, with all options open for the prime minister, is an attempt to delay the process or simply an expression of Remoaning." The Richmond Park result should be a reminder "that their votes have another destination if we don't get this right", they added.
The government is taking it's appeal to the Supreme Court next week in an attempt to overthrow the High Court judgement telling them to act legally. We were told that if they lost again, as seems likely, they would introduce a bill to get round the problem. That bill was published Friday, suggesting that they know already they will lose again. This hearing has now taken on even more importance as the Scottish and Welsh governments have been allowed to join the case and will raise even more problems about their standing within the UK and EU. For all those who thought it would be a simple exercise to change our relationship with the EU it must be a wake up call to comply with the law, or find a way to involve the elected MPs.
As a member of the electorate I never have been consulted as to the verity of a referendum.. It was the action of one party.Who make or change laws in our 'constitution'? Our elected government. The use of a referendum is legally flawed if parliament are not then handed a choice as to how to proceed
Theresa May orders crackdown on unauthorised leaks by ministers and civil servants, leaked memorandum reveals. The warning appears to reflect the acute sensitivity in No 10 over reports of government divisions, with claims of clashes between pro-Brexit ministers like Boris Johnson and Liam Fox and Chancellor Philip Hammond and of tensions between Mr Hammond and the Prime Minister. There was little sign that the warning had had any impact, with the Sunday papers continuing to report the behind-the-scenes manoeuvrings over Brexit. The Sunday Times said that Mrs May had given ministers the green light to draw up secret plans for a “grey Brexit” that would steer away from the demands of Leave and Remain hardliners. The paper quoted Whitehall sources as saying that Mr Hammond and Brexit Secretary David Davis had formed a “small clique” with No 10 to avoid a “hard Brexit”.
The EU is in trouble tonight as Italy rejects the government's requested changes in a referendum. Italian banks are basically bankrupt. The sovereign debt is huge. If the Prime Minister resigns it gives the anti establishment parties Five Star Movement and Northern League a chance of power. A referendum on Euro monetary membership would then be possible. Italy is desperate to be able to de-value its currency so it can compete with other nations.
The Italians were called to the polls to vote on an internal constitutional matter - which, if translated into British terms, would have been the same as restricting the powers of the House of Lords. The probability is, with Renzi's resignation, that we will see a transitional leadership until the planned elections of 2018. Why should there be new elections ? There were no new elections when Cameron resigned.
The Italians change their government regularly, mainly because of the terrible financial position they are in due to membership of the Euro. The Italian banks will be under renewed pressure from today. There has been a flight of money away from Italian government bonds. Although there has been a slight rebound the Italian fiscal problems still remain. The 'money' people have priced in fresh elections next year.
