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Effect of Brexit

Discussion in 'Watford' started by Davylad, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    I certainly think the UK can achieve quicker deals. Time wise, the EU has proved to be hopeless at negotiating deals as all 28 members have had to agree. The UK will only have to be concerned with what suits us. Having friendly relations with the US will be so advantageous. There is no reason the UK cannot agree mutually beneficial bilateral trade deals, fairly quickly. Non EU trading partners can offer the same deal we currently have as current EU members, any desired tweaks can take place over time.

    The remainers are desperately devising obstacles which are not there.
     
    #1921
  2. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    You sound like Michael Gove not trusting the so called 'experts'.
    :emoticon-0102-bigsm
     
    #1922
  3. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Lots of comments from the remoaners about the Sterling's drop in value against the USD this year.

    Have you noticed the Euro has dropped much more value against the USD since 2014. There is now talk of the Euro further weakening, maybe dropping to parity with the USD. Was 1.40 Euros/$ now 1.05 Euros/$, serious devaluation.
     
    #1923
  4. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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  5. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    How many Turks were going to descend on the UK any day now according to Farage, Gove, etc? Free movement for them to take over the country when the EU admitted them. All talks are now frozen by the EU despite the buffoon Johnson asking for them to be allowed in. <doh>
     
    #1925
  6. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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    <laugh> <laugh> <laugh>

    Sir John Major has become the second former prime minister within 24 hours to question the Brexit process, saying there is a “perfectly credible” case for a second referendum on leaving the European Union.

    Speaking shortly after Tony Blair argued in an interview that Brexit could be reversed if the public changed its mind, Major said that the 48% of voters who wanted to remain should not be subject to the “tyranny of the majority”.

    The former Conservative prime minister said in a speech at a private dinner on Thursday that the opinions of remain voters should be heard in the debate about how Britain left the EU, the Times reported.

    In his first intervention over the issue since the 23 June referendum, Major said he accepted the UK would not remain a full member of the EU, but hoped any Brexit deal would mean the UK remained as close as possible to EU members and the single market, which he described as “the richest market mankind has ever seen”.

    Whatever happened with Brexit, he said, he could not accept that those people who voted to remain should have no input on the terms of Brexit.

    “I hear the argument that the 48% of people who voted to stay should have no say in what happens,” he said. “I find that very difficult to accept. The tyranny of the majority has never applied in a democracy and it should not apply in this particular democracy.”

    Major argued that it must be parliament, not the government, that made the final decision on any new deal with the EU, and there was a “perfectly credible case” for a second referendum on such a deal.

    Major was addressing a dinner and question-and-answer session commemorating the 100th anniversary of David Lloyd George becoming prime minister.

    Earlier on Thursday, the New Statesman published Blair’s comments about the possibility of Brexit being halted.

    In an interview to mark his return to commenting on political matters, Blair said he was not predicting Brexit would not happen, only that there was a possibility it would not. “It can be stopped if the British people decide that, having seen what it means, the pain-gain, cost-benefit analysis doesn’t stack up,” he said.

    Such a turnaround could arise in one of two ways, both of them hinging on negotiations over access to the EU’s single market, Blair said.

    “Either you get maximum access to the single market, in which case you’ll end up accepting a significant number of the rules on immigration, on payment into the budget, on the European court’s jurisdiction. People may then say, ‘Well, hang on, why are we leaving then?’

    “Or alternatively, you’ll be out of the single market and the economic pain may be very great because, beyond doubt, if you do that you’ll have years, maybe a decade, of economic restructuring.”

    Theresa May’s spokesman dismissed the idea of a second referendum.

    “We’ve been clear all along that the people of the United Kingdom have given the government a very clear instruction to take us out of the European Union,” he said. “Even Sir John has accepted that we are going to be leaving the European Union.”

    Asked about the idea of the 48% of remain voters having no say, the spokesman said such issues were being raised in Commons debate and in the work of the Brexit select committee: “All these opinions will be fully aired and fully debated.”

    He dismissed Major’s notion of the “tyranny of the majority”, saying: “It was a full and fair, democratic vote, and the majority voted to bring Britain out of the European Union. It is now the job of the government to deliver on the will that was expressed on that vote.”

    The Liberal Democrat leader, Tim Farron, said: “When a former Conservative prime minister publicly comes out in support of a Lib Dem policy, it shows we are the only sensible party on Brexit.

    “The British people voted for departure but they didn’t vote for a destination, and they certainly didn’t vote to make the nation poorer and risk jobs. The haphazard way May’s cabinet are handling Brexit makes the case for a referendum on the deal stronger each day, and we’re glad to have growing cross-party support for this campaign.”

    Like Blair, Major was notably more pro-EU than many other MPs in his party. The former Tory prime minister’s time in office was marked by persistent battles with his backbenchers over Europe.

    The peak of the disruption came in 1995 when Major stood for re-election as Conservative leader against the leading Eurosceptic John Redwood in an attempt to regain his authority on Europe.

    Major’s comments are likely to enrage some of his former foes, such as Redwood, who are still in parliament.

    **********

    Cameron's swivel-eyed loons comment is starting to make more sense, most respectable politicians are saying Brexit is a terrible idea/we need a second referendum.

    Only the far-right xenophobes and people that think they can make some cash from it are for it.

    Next year is going to be interesting. Looking forward to going on some marches, haven't been to one in ages, might have to wait until the summer though as it's bloody freezing!! :smile:

    The Revolution is coming, the older generations accepted the neo-liberal bribes and have nice cosy lives, while today's youth are suffering for your perks. Wonder if you can get a guillotine on a Black Friday deal... <whistle>
     
    #1926

  7. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    Even Micheal Howard the one time leader of the Tory party has come out and stated that for May to try and use people as bargaining chips is a disgrace. "She should wear a badge of shame, as she could have stated that EU citizens living in the UK would have the right to remain, and our nationals living in the EU would have had a similar assurances given. This could have been done and put away ."
    It seems that for an avid leaver to turn on her in this way says that she is in a hopeless situation and is not dealing with it at all well.
     
    #1927
  8. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The PM's stance on this issue has been 100% correct. It would be have been foolish to have given EU nationals right to remain before she had secured our nationals right to remain in the EU. It is not her fault that the EU officials have been slow to agree this basic point. There was no chance of this reciprocal arrangement not being agreed. It has all been a lot of hot air about nothing.
     
    #1928
  9. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    It seems that you agree with Howard that it is not a problem so should have been dealt with, but then you say May is correct for not dealing with it. Not sure that you have a clear idea on this. Which EU officials have been dragging their feet over the issue? I would have thought for Howard to say she should wear a badge of shame is pretty damning. She is out of her depth, but then almost any politician would be in the current chaos.
     
    #1929
  10. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Her position on this is the most sensible. Most UK expats would have been livid if the UK had guaranteed EU nationals right to reside in the UK then the EU had wanted to negotiate our expat's right to live in the EU.

    Where Michael Howard is correct is in saying the EU is doomed and Brexit should mean being outside of the single market.
     
    #1930
  11. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Although this vote in the EU parliament is constitutionally meaningless Erdogan has warned he may let hundreds of thousands of migrants into Europe soon. Many more customers for the migrant camps in France I presume?
     
    #1931
  12. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    To be honest the discussion is meaningless - but a declaration which assured people of their rights would have been appropriate. The truth is that EU. citizens already living in the UK. and also British people living in Europe are covered by the so called 'acquired rights' of the Vienna Convention - which has nothing to do with the EU. Legal residents cannot be turned into illegal ones at any governments whim - the taking away of residence permits can only be done in the case of criminal offences having been committed (and that also only for a certain class of crime).
     
    #1932
  13. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    As I said the whinging was just hot air. It was always going to be sorted, it just had to be done the correct way.
     
    #1933
  14. Bolton's Boots

    Bolton's Boots Well-Known Member

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    In spite of recent opinions from south of the border, there is, I think, a very real possibility that Scotland will be able to block Brexit in the courts - or, at the very least, force May to hold a second referendum, if only to save face.

    Section 29 of The Scotland Act requires the Scottish Government to act in a manner compatible with EU law. That requirement would have to be removed for Brexit to go ahead - and any such removal proposed by Westminster would have to be agreed to by the Scottish Government. Highly unlikely, methinks. That would leave May with three options:-

    1) Call a second referendum, which, in the opinion of many, would likely result in the opposite outcome;
    2) Over-rule the Scottish Government;
    3) Dissolve the Scottish Government.

    If she elected to do either 2) or 3), I suspect the **** would fairly quickly hit the fan - and the break up of the UK would swiftly follow. So I reckon she will opt for the first course of action.

    Not that that will stop the eventual break up anyway... :)
     
    #1934
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  15. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    I would agree that steps 2 and 3 would be unthinkable without the Union breaking up in a very acrimonious fashion. A second referendum could come into question at some stage - on the final deal done with the EU. for example, but I would be reluctant to risk it now. Yes, there are some who have changed to the remain camp, also some of the older ones have popped off and a few younger ones have 'come of age'. But on the other hand even those who wanted to remain may realize that going back on the whole thing now - saying to Europe in effect 'sorry it was all a mistake' would be accompanied by a certain loss of face. Also, if a second referendum happened, and turned out 52-48 the other way the issue would not end there - do you think the Brexiters would accept the result ? Better to let the matter go......give the people a taste of 'Brexit' and see what the mood is like in 2 years time.
     
    #1935
  16. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

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    I think that there may be more than just that BB. The High Court ruled that May was trying to act illegally in bypassing Westminster. All opinion is that the Supreme Court is unlikely to overrule that verdict. The Scottish Government has been allowed to join the action, and one of the arguments is that legally it goes against the very act of the union. Former experienced government ministers advised May that she would be unlikely to win in the Supreme Court, and they could set conditions that would be far worse than existing, e.g changing laws, that would throw her timetable to the wind. The fact that the case is still going ahead suggests that she is playing for time, and could even hope that she will have a good reason to cast the blame for lack of progress and a reasonable plan elsewhere. Of course she could still withdraw from the appeal at the last minute, something that is quite common.
    Cologne, the only problem with your two year reasoning is that it is not clear if the UK government could change it's mind and withdraw the Article 50 application. If in two years things are looking bad, could the UK hope to continue with the same special arrangements that it has gained over the years?
     
    #1936
  17. Bolton's Boots

    Bolton's Boots Well-Known Member

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    To be honest, I can't actually see that a loss of face would worry the man on the street, however 'the taste of Brexit' would very likely be too bitter a pill to swallow in 2 years time - at which point it would probably be impossible to go back.

    I just like to think that this whole sorry episode will prove to be one of political suicide by the Tories.
     
    #1937
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  18. andytoprankin

    andytoprankin Well-Known Member

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    You're not suggesting they would moan about it, are you? ;)
     
    #1938
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  19. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The 'nasty' hardline front promised by the EU negotiators is already showing signs of cracking. The Bavarian Economy Minister, Ilse Aigner, has squealed like a stuck pig, demanding a comprehensive trade deal with the UK to protect jobs in Germany. She said the UK quitting the EU was a 'high risk' to the German economy.

    Reality will eventually set in.
     
    #1939
  20. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    Ilse Aigner is irrelevant SH. She is only active in local 'Lederhosen' politics for a party which doesn't exist outside of Bavaria.
     
    #1940

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