The EU debate - Part III

Apart from this comment

 

And obviously this comment too

 

Deutsche Bank: Five reasons the European rally could falter.

Investors who have been singularly focused on the US election are ignoring key risks that threaten to derail the recent rally, particularly in Europe.

That’s the view of analysts at Deutsche Bank who said on Tuesday they remain cautious about European equities heading into year-end.

Since the lows on November 9, the day after the presidential election, European stocks have risen about 3%, tracking moves in US markets amid hopes for fiscal stimulus there and lower regulation.

Economists at Deutsche say tax cuts and increased government spending could boost US GDP growth to above 3% in the second half of next year.

But the firm’s head of European equities, Sebastian Raedler, said that won’t necessarily translate into “meaningful upside” for the European market in the near term, and he offered five reasons why:


Italian referendum
Deutsche’s European economists now see a 60% probability of a “No” vote in the Italian referendum on December 4. Peripheral bond spreads have widened over the past week, but European equities have yet to react, Raedler notes. “As a consequence, peripheral spreads now point to 5% downside for European equities.”

Chinese capital flight intensifies
Deutsche’s currency analysts claim that Chinese capital flight is now as intense as it was in the second half of last year, “pointing to an increased risk of a disorderly Chinese FX devaluation, especially if the Fed hikes rates on December 14.”

Risk of lower oil
Oil prices have fallen by 17% from the mid-October peak, as the dollar has risen back above its January peak, Raedler says. Deutsche’s FX strategists predict the buck will fall a further 5%, which could translate into a sharp decline for crude, possibly to $30 a barrel from the current level of about $45. A decline below $40 “is likely to lead to renewed financial stress via widening US high-yield spreads,” argues Raedler.

Higher bond yields
Expectations for more government borrowing in the US have lifted bond yields there and dragged European rates up, too. According to Deutsche, that’s reduced the relative attractiveness of European stocks.

“The 40 basis point rise in European real bond yields since the end of October has already reduced the fair-value [price-earnings ratio] by 5%,” Raedler says. “If bond yields keep rising,this will put further pressure on equity and credit valuations.”

Trump tail risks
So far, the market has focused on the benign elements of Trump’s agenda, particularly the prospect for significant fiscal stimulus. But Raedler notes that there is a risk these plans will be watered down or delayed and that other “less helpful” policies, such as import tariffs will come to the fore.

 

It was a joke aimed at Hull's quite dull string of copy and pastes. If history is anything to go by we'll be told soon he doesn't agree with the posts but just wants to stimulate debate and anyone suggesting he has any sort of agenda is deflecting.

 

Only the government have subsequently denied that she meant an interim deal.

Comes to something when downing street is denying the words of the prime minister

 

They've been contradicting each other and issuing denials ever since she formed her cabinet. She's overseeing a complete shambles.

 

We are heading towards disaster with the Right wing progressing to the front of their countries and this is our biggest nightmare..........Right wing leaders are all power mad and will never agree with any other right wing organization let alone anyone else and that is why countries have always try to stop getting into power.....With the biggest right wing leader to get power in trump and Theresa who has moved from the centre right to full on right wing and France and others moving in that direction then we are heading for WW3 in the coming future as right wing countries fail to agree or compromise on anything Just look at the biggest right wing leader of all time Adolf Hitler and others recently like Saddam Hussain and others...They were all right wing leaders.......Beware how powerful the right wing can be now we have Trump who is heading as the most powerful leader in the world.....Support right wing at your peril.....

 

That's increasingly obvious, unfortunately.

It's s **** up, rapidly becoming a public **** up!..

 

It's hard to separate the "tongue in cheek" and the actual abuse on this thread!!

 

Get yourself a paper bag, put it over your nose and mouth and breath normally

 

Well after 827 pages of the third thread on the subject my not tongue in cheek opinion is that he's a sly **** who hides behind links and the more extreme headcases on the thread rather than be open about his beliefs.

 

As I've mentioned to some other fools, perhaps your problem is more that your perception is wrong, and you're acting like a pollster who claims that they're right, and the voters got it wrong.

An easy way to find out, would be for you to try to have a conversation, instead of popping up with inane drivel or a determination to prove your view of me is the correct one, which is just pointless and dull in the extreme.

 

I tend to skim over a lot of it now and certainly don't open the links. I do find Hulls posting style a little strange and don't really care what his true beliefs are, as they are unlikely to make a difference to my own views.

 

I appreciate the condescending post. Maybe after a few thousand pages, hundreds of your posts and several months I have an opinion of you based on your actions in this thread.

 

Why does it have to be an adversarial issue about beliefs, be they real or imagined? Why can't it be a conversation to explore possibilities relating to the issues?

People seem determined to add there own bizarre twists to what's posted, which just leads to tedious exchanges and pissing contests. What they often try to call evasion, is often simply a refusal to accept their peculiar prejudice and attempts to pigeon hole and label.

 

To be fair Hull, it is very difficult to have a conversation with you as you very rarely answer any questions. The comments above are typical. You keep claiming that people misinterpret you, but when challenged, just repeat the same comments.

 

Or maybe you're just a bit of a bigoted, prejudiced bore that pops up with pointless comments from time to time.

 

If they ask a relevant question, I'll happily answer, if they're clearly trying to twist what's posted to suit their agenda, my answers will quite likely look confusing, but that's more because the question is fallacious.

 

The people posting praise for Hitler and the desire for strong right-wing politicians are perhaps those likely to have a prejudice.