How long will the EU last?

A year of political unrest

4 December: Italian constitutional referendum. Voters go to the polls in a referendum called by prime minister Matteo Renzi to ask if Italians approve of reforms on which he has staked his political future. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement, under its founder Beppe Grillo, right, currently heads the polls. Grillo hailed Trump’s victory as a vindication of his own maverick stance. Renzi has said he will resign if he does not win.

4 December: Austrian presidential election. The Austrians are re-running a presidential election that could see Norbert Hofer of the rightwing, anti-immigrant Freedom party, become the first head of state from the far right to enter office in an EU state since 1945. The result of the first election in May, in which Hofer, right, came within 31,000 votes of winning, was scrapped due to irregularities in counting the postal ballots.

15 March 2017: Dutch elections. The Freedom party of rightwing populist and anti-immigration campaigner Geert Wilders, right, is neck-and-neck in opinion polls with prime minister Mark Rutte’s liberals. Wilders, who attended the Republican party convention earlier this year, has imitated the Leave campaign in the UK referendum, saying Dutch voters must “take back their country” on election day.

23 April/7 May 2017: French presidential elections. The first round of voting will be on 23 April and the leader of the anti-EU Front National Marine Le Pen is widely expected to progress to the decisive runoff. Then she is most likely to face veteran centrist Alain Juppé, a former prime minister, in the decisive vote on May 7. Juppé is favourite in a country that remains broadly pro-EU, but there is nervousness that a shock is now not impossible.

September or October 2017: German elections. Germany is the least likely country to see a populist leader. However if the euro-sceptic (by German standards) Alternative für Deutschland, led by Frauke Petry, right, beat their current poll ratings, which are in the low teens, by a big margin that in itself would constitute a shock. Angela Merkel has not announced if she will stand again but her CDU/CSU is well ahead, albeit damaged by her approach to migration.

I wonder what the odds are of at least one of these leading to a referendum with a result like Britain

 

It's the end of the EU...

Each European country is moving towards mainly right wing populous parties ...

We won't end up with facist states but we will move away from what was wanted from the EU with a lot of voters wanting to curb free movement of people , immigration etc

 

The Brussels elite must be ****ting themselves. So much for threatening to give Britain a hard time

 

Too long.

 

As long as Ulster is Protestant, I'm happy.

 

2 years, 3 months and 7 days.

 

Clock started

 

Thousand year Union still in its infancy!

 

Looking like yet another 23 pager from GC shrewdie, Ronald

Guy has POTY sewn up and it's mid-November.

 

It's not the end of the EU

France and Germany will never have a far-right government, that's not even something to suggest without sounding like an uninformed spastic.

After Brexit kicks in no one will want to leave. The EU is doing fine, much better than us so I reckon just leave them to it and avoid reading Murdoch rags that have condemned the EU every day for ****ing decades.

Let me guess Pud, you're a Torygraph reader?

 

'The Brussels elite'



Ron < Richard Littlejohn

 

Maybe, at one point, anyone who thought Trump would win sounded like one of those.

 

Nope, this is different, France have a 2nd round of voting and if, as predicted, Le Pen gets through the entire country (minus the scum that vote for her) will unite to stop her from progressing. It would be the equivalent of Labour/Tory voters uniting to outvote UKIP. They wouldn't stand a chance.

In Germany it's ingrained in their culture nowadays to refuse any association with facism/far right stuff. No ****ing chance any far right party stands a chance of getting elected.

Brexit happened because this country is full of uneducated scum that were mobilised by the right-wing rags. Took several decades to indoctrinate enough of them though. This country will be ****ed in a couple of years time...

 

I see you jumped and made a few incorrect assumptions ...

1 - No...I don't really read newspapers and certainly don't buy them and 2- I never said any countries have a far right governments and I certainly didn't single out France or a Germany ... you did.

But in my opinion ,and the opinion of many well informed people, the EU will either end (ok I admit this is probably unlikely in the short term) OR will change significantly compared to its original aim . Ok , maybe not in the immediate future but in the long term. It won't exist as it does today IMO .

Many people across Europe want change ...not the majority just now but right wing populous parties are gaining followers and voters ...and they may end up getting in positions of power or influence - given the set up of many European governments. The current populous parties are not traditionally facist .. traditional right wing and right wing populous are slightly different and are built in concerns of the day.

Le Pen is probably the exception to whom I'm referencing ...however , did France not ban the niqab? And now banned the Burkini ?

Also , I voted remain ya fanny ...I think the UK has cut it nose off !

 

Personally I think it was wrong to have a referendum. Maybe the EU is doomed but I didn't feel it was right to alienate ourselves by rocking the boat. It may have been better to merely support whichever major country threatened to come out first

What I still find intriguing, and it doesn't seem to have been mentioned in the media at all (which I find incredible), is that nobody has a clue what the terms of a Brexit will be (assuming it goes ahead) yet the country voted for it (ie without knowing what they were voting for). And yet there are still those who say "The country has voted" and "We must honour the referendum result" It is a ****ing joke

I've copied below a post I made on my home forum

 

The EU is finished.

A dead duck.

 

Aye,sterling nose dived and by March it'll be on a par with the Euro and me looking to that cos plan a trip to see the Toon and I'll be quids(euros) in.

 

Duck soup. A bad joke.

 

Just as GC settles down after offensive-tag-gate, Ron drops another R-BOMB and, as per the script, the unemployed social misfits of GCers engage in another massive spat as various pseudo intellects of various obese forms argue over the good, the bad and in venoms case, the uglier parts of the European Union.

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