Purely an opinion. You have little evidence to back it up. India as an example is doing a huge amount of trade with the EU and an ever decreasing amount with the UK. The Indians are looking for more freedom to travel in and out of the UK, not less, and while they get the freedom that goes with trade within the EU, the UK will continue to suffer. Just about every nation is now looking to sign deals with trading blocks, not individual countries. Theresa May followed in Cameron's footsteps to India and came back with just as much as he did, almost nothing.
There is much evidence for my stated reasons for supporting Brexit. Today John Mann, the Labour MP who recently polled his electorate, which voted mainly for leave, found immigration was the main concern. After Brexit, the UK will be more able to allow bright Indians, and other highly skilled non EU nationals, to move to the UK when it is not compelled to take vast numbers of unskilled EU nationals. India increased investment into the UK by 64% in 2014, now the third largest investor country. The UK is also the third largest investor in India. Quite a good base to build on I would say. In 2016 the UK has retained its position as Europe's top investment destination, although this will obviously dip until Brexit is completed. The UK will remain a vastly more appealing destination than France for FDI. Many FD investors have commented along the lines of 'you would have to be mad' to invest in France. You should be more concerned with the mess that France is in at the moment.
Hopefully Trump, who openly called for Britain to leave the EU, will keep his word to treat Britain 'fantastically' after Brexit. He has promised to scrap a free trade deal with the EU in favour of 'individual deals with individual countries." Another victory for Nigel Farage, the most underrated politician in the UK. However not all good news, his views on Nato are extremely worrying. It could certainly encourage Putin to expand his external boundaries.
mm..... i am in for that... if it comes to anything... I imagine a whole group of so -called Brexiters will be looking after their own interests, dual nationality, EC registered companies etc
Due to the planned Brexit one of the obvious downsides is a reduction in the value of sterling which forecasters have stated may increase inflation to 4% next year. There are however some upsides. It has given our exporters a real boost, increased holidaying in the UK and increased tourism into the UK. A recent forecast by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has announced a remarkable set of numbers on the prospects for the current account deficit. They expect the deficit to virtually disappear in 2018, followed by three successive years of annual surpluses. The UK has not achieved this in the last three decades. This also assumes Britain stops paying contributions to the EU in 2019-20. This only leaves in excess of 1.5 trillion to pay back at some time!! Obviously welcome news but subject to many variables.
I can certainly see how tourism will benefit. In the last 2 or 3 years the NZ $ has risen from about 3 to the pound to $1.7. However, the demand for outbound UK tourism is fairly inelastic. The gains from inbound tourism should be offset against the losses from outbound tourism. Even if people decide to have cheaper domestic holidays the propensity to buy imported goods with the money not spent on tourism is much higher than usual.
Meanwhile: The UK trade deficit widened to £5.2bn in September from £3.8bn in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Exports decreased by £0.2bn, while imports increased by £1.2bn.
This year's average is expected to be 4.5% of GDP, next year 1.7% of GDP and disappear in 2018, very encouraging. The UK's debt level is about 85%GDP. France is much worse at over 96%GDP, public debt much higher than the UK with growth much less and unemployment rates increasing to over 10%, this is more than double the UK rates of 4.9%.
The French are the wealthiest Europeans individually, and rank fourth in world terms. The French are also among the least indebted populations in the developed world with households owing less than 10% of their assets. 98% of French household have some savings in the bank. The same cannot be said about the population of the UK, as figures show. The average person is in debt to the tune of £29,770 making a total of £1,503 trillion of personal debt. You can trade figures as long as you like over how governments operate the economy, but at the end of the day it comes down to how individuals feel. Would you rather have some money in the bank for a rainy day, or would you wish to be £30k in debt?
The UK does have a problem with personal debt although your figures includes mortgages against vastly more valuable properties compared with France. The UK is somewhere near average in Europe with many countries, considered success stories, having much greater levels of personal debt, including Denmark, Holland, Norway, Sweden etc. Of course, debt is no problem if people have jobs so they can afford to pay back their debts. You have failed to comment on the rapidly worsening French state debt mountain with no sign of any plan to address the causes. France does not appear to have the politicians or the public will to seriously enact the economic reforms desperately required.
Good morning, SH. The difference between personal debt and state debt is huge, though. Personal debt is something we all understand (thankfully we only have a tiny mortgage and no other debt) but states have far more options open to them to reduce/increase debt. This misconception was jumped on and exploited by dearest Maggie who used to liken the state's finances to a lady's purse (patronising old bitch) and reared its ugly head again under Cameron. In terms of democracy, well covered on the other political thread, what appals me is politicians' deliberately misleading the public because it is expedient to their own power needs.
Agreed, state debt can be eroded by many means including good old fashioned inflation. Although interest rates are currently at rock bottom the cost of servicing a national debts is huge. I'm sure the UK pays something in excess of 30 billion a year, money that could be used for better causes, investment, NHS, lower taxes etc. Once we stop our national debt increasing, forecast for 2018, we must have a serious plan to actually repay the loan.
The fact is our dear friend Blair should've paid off during the good years. He's not the first to pretend the good times are all down to the PM - Maggie did exactly the same. This is what I mean about politicians putting themselves before the electorate. Am I naive to think it's possible not to do this?
Good post. The problem is politicians are primarily only interested in how history views them so they concentrate on short term policies. I suppose if they have to bear in mind they need to be re-elected every so often it is understandable. However it should be possible to obtain cross party agreement to put in place a structured plan to gradually pay off the debt mountain. If governments are seen to irresponsibly run up huge debts what example is that to our young people? I agree with OFH, the personal level of debt in Britain is far too high. I don't agree with imposed credit controls but there is not enough information, especially in schools, to educate people on taking on too much debt. Saying that I have been guilty of taking enormous financial risks in the past.
The normalisation of massive personal debt (excluding mortgages) is what worries me. I know people who owe 5 figure sums to credit card companies, e.g. someone who put their wedding on a credit card and then transferred it all onto a mortgage. I agree that education re debt is poor; ironic really as it is that sector that is putting people into such colossal debt at a young age. Rather than teaching our young people that education is a burden on the economy that needs to be paid back, we should make them understand that the country is investing in them and expects to receive that investment back from resultant higher rate returns in the future. I hate the fact my 19 year old niece, a hard-working, really smashing kid, will leave university with greater debt than my wife and I have on our mortgage. She's not a burden, she and her ilk will be paying my pension (should I live long enough to receive it ).
My youngest daughter has approx £40k student loan which is increasing all the time. I'm not sure much of it will ever be paid off.
Another problem is that politicians are tied to a 5 year electoral cycle - ie. things have to look good within those 5 years or they don't get re elected. This works against long term planning or investment.
The Labour Party is unwittingly co-operating in one respect that it is taking the pressure off the Tories's concern about re-election so maybe some long term planning can be implemented.
