ive said all along I expect a deal to be done which keeps most things as they are. If the government draws a hard line in the sand over immigration then they are massive ******s who shouldn't be in charge of the negotiations. If common sense prevails we will keep full access to the single market (including passporting, allowing our financial sector to maintain its strong position) and cave in on immigration demands.
yes said deal would be the norway model. nothing will actually change bar zero influence over EU and zero voting rights while the EU changes terms and conditions for all trade partners at will. The immigration line is the greatest pile of poo ever as 90% of racists votes were over Africans, Caribbeans and arabic/ indian subcontinent immigrants which has zero to do with EU. it is absolutely hilarious that white racists... hate white eastern Europeans that much.. I can hand on heart predict that UK has zero and i mean ZERO change of retaining passporting of the euro. access to single market is the sole objective now. there are too many interests in 27 other states to get that passporting that the UK has painted itself into a very narrow corner. There are enough in europe who would rather burn the uk to the ground in punishment and take the pain themselves than allow the contagion on exit to spread. Germany and france but mostly germany rules the EU. they have literally tortured greece for years when in fact just writing off the whole debt would not have cost much in the overall scheme of things. they are spiteful and controlling and rather than front up we have ran away... and what happens when a dog runs form a fight? yeah its got to roll over and show its belly everytime the big dogs are barking. Well germany will bark its commands and May will roll over.... they all know whats coming... financial secotr won't get a pass. car industry is not getting any pass.. no ****ing chance.... so all this kite flying will blow up in their face. the kites are already showing the weakness of our hand. we need x cos nissan said they'll move.. a whole 6k jobs in sunderland has us worried.. thats the level we are at.
Passporting will be at the heart of negotiations on our side I'd imagine, I expect we will pretty much keep things the same in regards to the single market. I disagree though about countries rather see us crash and burn. Recent comments out of Sweden suggest a softening approach from EU countries and a will to get a deal done which keeps the UK as a strong trade partner. European jobs are effected by the UK crashing, those countries don't want that. Eurosceptisicm amongst the Scandinavian countries would be fuelled by the mistreating of the U.K. Which ultimately would negatively effect there countries over the vanity of the EU project. A deal will be done which basically keeps the relationship as is, but allows greater autonomy for the British government outside of the EU.
I think the mistake that May and some tories have made so far is to suggest that it's clear that the vote for leaving the EU was about immigration, they should have focused on other areas of contention. They are potentially backing themselves into a bad corner to be in. It would be terrible if this posturing ultimately meant May doesn't go for the right deal in an attempt not to look like she failed as PM to deliver on immigration.
The immigration issue is huge for some people(but not others of course), its not(at this moment)an issue for me as it doesn't affect me directly, but if their was a fairer system within EU immigration laws the issue wouldn't have needed to be part of the referendum. How many people actually move from their respective national nations of for example Britain, France, Germany to Poland or Lithuania etc for a better life, better job prospects or better healthcare? The odds are stacked against the richer EU nations and if thats what a lot of brexiteers voted for it obviously is going to be high on the PM's negotiation list, access to the single market won't happen unless we keep the freedom of movement within the EU laws after brexit according to plenty of top hitters in France and Germany, as things stand the referendum was a waste of time and money which shows that if politicians actually listened to their electorate's fears on the major issues that matter and actually debated and voted on them within the houses of parliament the referendum wouldn't have been needed or happened.
Immigration brings votes for the many racists and closet racists of our country. From the corners of the UK where immigration is not a problem you have people in uproar over it because they see the headlines of the S*n and Daily Fail, and somehow believe that this effects them in some bad way. It was the major argument that was ever going to work for the leave campaign and it did. It's how Trump is so close to becoming the President.
I remember that documentary they had a month after the vote on the Beeb. They went to Sedgefield, Tony Blair's old manor, and were speaking to some retired and redundant old miners. 'Well there's far too much immigration and no control over it, and that's stopping many round here getting jobs' they universally opined as to why the area had voted @ 80/20 leave. The local MP, interviewed separately, said that the demographic was 98.2% English white in the area.
I saw that mate, they interviewed some dole wallers who were blaming the Poles for them not getting a bigger council house and a job (in that order) Conditioned by the Tory press and a racist **** like Farage, to believe that all of societies ills could be cured by stopping the flow of immigrants. I'm sure it suited plenty to have a different excuse for their failure in life.
No chance of it. I quote: "Subject to its fulfilment of conditions under the relevant single market directive, a firm authorised in a European Economic Area (EEA) state is entitled to carry on permitted activities in any other EEA state by either exercising the right of establishment (of a branch and/or agents) or providing cross-border services. This is referred to in Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (FSMA) as an EEA right and the exercise of this right is known as ‘passporting’." this law will be repealed no 1. have to be in EEA no 2 would you let a foreign power who has no linkages bar a few treaties passport the sterling... like china for example? that no 3 there is no way the vested interests will allow it. no chance. also uk has already damaged eu countries gorwth and there are going to be serious hawks in germany, france, finland, etc that will nail us to the wall.. others such as netherlands and the basket cases will want us in. sorry but you are very optomistic on this and its just not happening IMO. this si the crown jewel and germany will want it.
everyone knows the eu has stupid immigration rules. They were designed to be a federal state but the issue was everything was great right up until they let in however many eastern european countries all in one blast. I do not however believe for one moment that the richer eu states suffer at all. whats actually happening is the rich get richer and the trickle down effect drives wider market places across europe in the long run. The eu laws have 4 pillars. uk has to accept all 4 to get into eem. btw.. nroway has... is norway adversely affected? nope.
re passporting two options exist. Bilateral Agreements Switzerland currently has a series of bilateral agreements covering there trading relationship with the UK. They current have an agreement that allows Swiss general insurers to set up establishments in order to provide limited financial services across EEA countries. As the UK is a significant provider of financial services there is a chance that some agreement may be reached. However the Swiss agreement requires establishment passports, which means businesses would still have to set up offices within the EU if the UK leaves. Also as with the Swiss agreements, the services which they are able to provide under a passport may well be far more limited. Despite this, London’s status as a global financial centre, its influence in helping to set financial regulation globally and the fact it is currently compliant with EU directives on financial services, makes it likely that the UK is in a better position to reach an agreement so EU businesses can also retain access to the UK’s financial services. This means any agreement could well be different and more comprehensive than the Swiss bilateral arrangement. Though, as the UK is a net exporter of Financial Services, there will also be less incentive for EU countries to reach an agreement with the UK as without an agreement it will reduce competition for other EU countries financial services sectors. No Agreement If the UK leaves the EU with or without a trade agreement but no agreement to allow passorting, then a Brexit could have a fairly damaging impact on the financial services, an impact which without future agreement could permanently reduce UK access to the EU financial services sector. The reduction in access and the cost of relocating some services to another EU country in order for businesses to maintain the same level of services in the EEA are, other than economic uncertainty, likely to be the two biggest impact’s on UK financial services. Though financial services are likely, after the initial shock of uncertainty, to continue to grow and be a significant part of the UK economy, the reduced access, and the moving of some services will mean that compared to remaining in the EEA (whether or not we stay in the EU) to contribution of financial services to the UK economy will be smaller. A report by PwC estimated that cost of relocating services alone could have a -0.4 per cent impact on UK GDP by 2030 and the barriers to trade cause by the loss of passporting rights could reduce the contribution of financial services by between 0.6 and 2.2 percent. This is turn could mean between 70,000 and 100,000 less jobs in the short run, and 10,000 to 30,000 less jobs by 2030. not such a nice set up is it... EEM = cosy. outside EEM = deal means jobs flow out of country to EU HQ and it only makes sense to do so. NO deal at all and its meltdown in london.
Joking aside I have a prediction as to how this ends. We retain full single market access, have to pay a fee about 2/3rds of what we're already paying, we have to roll over on free movement BUT they give May a 'get our of jail' card by allowing the Govt to alter the benefits system so that EU immigrants can't claim a bean for an extended period of time after arrival. Net result, a pointless white wash, that was caused by Murdoch and thick ****s
But with more autonomy for our government and the ability to negotiate our own trade deals outside of the EU. I'd be happy with that outcome
It's the best we can hope for imo. There'd be just enough there to placate all but the racists and xenophobes, who can get ****ed anyway.
Interesting discussion. Worst case: we don't agree anything and we have to apply WTO tariffs on everything. Prices rise by 2-3%. Trust me, that's a drop in the ocean compared to the inflation that's coming so big deal. Our government will have a free hand to offset any tariffs to ensure we get new or retain investment. They do not now. What we get back. A ton. Not least the ability to vote in or out of office the people who make our laws. A true democracy. I hate how the right wing hijacked the whole debate and made it about immigration. It is not healthy. We need immigration to grow. Truth is that Europe is not working. It hasn't for years. It thrives because it protects its markets and makes laws that cannot be repealed and the beaurocrats who make them can never be voted out of office. It is a massive gravy train for the rich and elite. Whether you voted in or out, if our MP's do not support the decision of the referendum then we will have a serious constitutional crisis on our hands. We will no longer have a democracy but a new ruling class who think they know better than the general population. Very dangerous indeed.
nothing much bar the fact that all those places in wales and such that have moeny from EU have handed that moeny to westminister and hope it gets given to them ooops. No the reality is if we become eea then we accept all those laws the eu insist on in terms of their goods, we pay the eu for access like norway does (prob a small saving really) and we are dependant on politicians in Westminster to continue the investment in research and development etc etc etc. Do you trust Thersea May to do that?
2/3% I dunno.. 15%? You are right you get to actually vote on who sets laws. the reality of that is if scotland leaves conservatives prob have a lock on it. You are also right europe is a basket case but we've walked away and left it to them rather than try fix it. So when germany pushes on with its financial conquest of the continent and it all goes i nthe toilet we will end up dragged dow with it but won't have the veto's to stop it. and yes.. it is a gravy train. its a horrible one too boot but its in control of the continent we need to trade with most.
e 3% inflation is extremely conservative given that the pound has slumped approx. 16% against the Euro - so far. That is currently largely being swallowed by the supply chain, but that can't go on for much longer, then get ready! A true democracy you say.......interesting view given that our first example of the great British democracy post Brexit has seen our judiciary labelled as 'Enemies of the People' for upholding our constitution, and thus our parliamentary democracy. As a matter of interest , can you name one piece of EU legislation that you can't wait to see the back of as it's removal will have a tangible effect on your existence? Our MP's have a duty to ensure that Brexit is delivered in a way that is going to be the least damaging to our economy. If that means knocking back some half arsed proposal from May that lacks any substance, that forces her to come back with something that provides the assurances that safeguard our future, then so be it.
