Would love to find an angle for the World Hurdle given all the staying hurdlers from last year are going chasing.... must be some value about i just cant seem to find it!
You might find one after the West Yorkshire hurdle tomorrow - Ballyoptic 16/1 with Betfred and he romps home tomorrow IMHO
Bit risky given Ricci has said about the champion and they arent exactly glowing about him in the stable tours / interviews
Willie Mullins stable tour in today's RP- Eight page supplement to cover 160 horses in the yard!He still has a really strong stable even after GTown threw a strap and broke ties. Lost a few decent horses but I think he is better off without them gangsters anyway and he'll attract more owners now that's there is more room at the inn!
My only addition to those would be to lay Thistlecrack for the GC at 5/1. 5/1 ????????????? He may be a superstar but, looking at the Timeform Ratings (below), Thistlecrack needs to rise above his high hurdle rating to join in at the top of the chasing rankings; and he hasn't yet run in a chase. It is interesting that he is only 2lb below Faugheen and has a "p" indicating he could be even better than Faugheen. In the chasing ranks we have Vautour and Douvan rated 6lbs higher, also with a "p", and they are now seasoned chasers. If Thistlecrack is as good at chasing as he is at hurdling he still has 9lbs to make up on last year's winner. If he is better than his hurdling form then he will be something really special but at 5/1 that seems very skinny given the ratings and his total inexperience. He will have to come out and look ultra impressive on his début to justify that price. If he isn't impressive on his chasing début he might not even run in the GC. Good luck to those who took fancy prices early enough, especially Oddy who spotted this one before he hit the hurdling heights and has been singing his praises ever since. But at 5/1 it's a lay bet for me. CHASERS 183 DON COSSACK 182 CUE CARD 180p DOUVAN 180p VAUTOUR 175 DJAKADAM 174 UN DE SCEAUX 171p CONEYGREE 170 DON POLI 169 SILVINIACO CONTI 169 SPECIAL TIARA 168 GOD'S OWN 168 ROAD TO RICHES 167 CARLINGFORD LOUGH 167 SIRE DE GRUGY 166 MANY CLOUDS 166 SMAD PLACE 166x MENORAH 165 VALSEUR LIDO 164 PTIT ZIG 163? CHAMPAGNE FEVER HURDLERS 176 FAUGHEEN 174p THISTLECRACK 170+ ANNIE POWER 168p DOUVAN 168 JEZKI 167p ALTIOR 166 UN DE SCEAUX 164 MY TENT OR YOURS 164 NICHOLS CANYON 163P YORKHILL
I hasten to add though that I would never actually lay a horse because the idea of cheering a losing horse sickens me. Merely questioning the weight of confidence before jumping a fence.
Turning this around Ron I think I can make a case for why 5-1 is a cracking price using your logic!! 183 DON COSSACK - very unlikely to run and if he did would be a huge leap of faith 182 CUE CARD - ran very poorly and dont buy the Tizzards excuses. He was the best he'd been before the race then all of a sudden needed the run. Fear last years exertions will have left their mark and I dont think he will be as big a threat next year and will end up rated 172. 180p DOUVAN - surely CC bound? If not will he be mature enough for the rigours of a Gold Cup? Might need time to develop and likely to have other targets. 180p VAUTOUR - Ryairgate again?! If he runs in the Gold Cup would be a main contender but is he 60/40 to run in it at this stage? 175 DJAKADAM - bridesmaid and just not quite the class..... a fair yardstick and one you would hope he could edge 174 UN DE SCEAUX - going to France and 0 chance of running. Add in doubts around Coneygree and actually 5-1 aint so bad!! Would I be lumping on - absolutely not. Is it value - probably not but dont think its as crazy a price as it first seems.
What's the best horse THISTLECRACK has beaten in the last 12 months though? I'd say it's Alpha des Obeaux, who got badly beaten at Punchestown on his next start and hasn't exactly looked that good in two beginners chases this term. The horse hasn't beaten anything like what he'd be facing in a Gold Cup. 12/1 should be his price, for all he did look a complete natural last week, I did like the run but he's just a bonkers price. Worth bearing in mind he's also an 8 year old now, so not likely to have that much improvement left in him. Contrast this to DJAKADAM, whose a year younger at 7, so may improve a bit and he's already went close in two Gold Cups. At 16/1 he's surely an infinitely better bet as you know he's already proven himself in this class.
Loads of formlines Beefy through horses he's beaten. For me most importantly he hasnt been anywhere near bottomed like most of the staying hurdlers who go chasing have.
Just watched Thistlecrack's début over fences. Very assured, jumped very well, very clever at one fence but showed inexperience at the next by ballooning over (might not get away with that at Cheltenham) but very impressive début I must say. Didn't look like a novice at all. Obviously didn't beat anything but head in chest, clearly enjoyed himself. Will be interesting to see him taken on for the lead in a strongly run race before Cheltenham. If he comes through that looking as good then the 5/1 might not look so skinny. Very interesting.
Agreed Ron - we didnt find out a great deal other than he looked a confident and assured jumper. Real test will be when hes amoung or behind horses and having to spot a stride with distractions and limited view or time to adjust.
Thistlecrack due to run next at Cheltenham's Open Meeting - should tell us a lot more both in terms of track and opposition
With the very sad losses of Vautour and Avant Tout will this mean that Willie steps up Douvan to 3m quicker than expected. He has no Gold Cup contenders - I know Djakadam but imo he falls just short of being a winner
Shaneshill? It's about time he got his head in front at the Festival and his RSA run was very impressive. I know Willie has said he thinks he's one for staying hurdles but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt. The report said poor ol Vautour was in the field with Shaneshill when he suffered the injury so there's a story there too come March. 33/1
Black hercules looked the best novice stayer in his barn last year. Enough speed for the JLT aswell. He would be my pick
