Transfer Rumours The Summer Transfer Rumour Thread 2016

I've always felt the best way to gamble is just bet it all. Me and my friend used to do this, but I wouldn't have the discipline to do it on my own. The trick is you have to be able to shrug off a huge loss and go about your day.

Whenever we went to Vegas, we'd split like $500-600 between us per day. First thing in the morning, we'd get up and go to a table and bet the whole thing. If we lost, we'd treat it as a relaxing day. Just hang out by the pool, watch some sports, walk the strip, maybe go hiking or play some disc golf or just sight see. You can actually have fun very cheaply in Vegas. But if we won, it was party time and we'd have big steak dinners, hit the clubs, and whatever. Actually do something fun with our winnings.

It's not like we beat the house odds or anything. But we did have the opportunity to go up $500 and then between us have $1000 to spend in one day, which you are very unlikely to do if you are betting multiple $5 or $10 hands. The more you play, the less variance.

Ultimately, we didn't win or lose any more than everyone else. Except that we spent 16 hours a day doing fun vacation things, instead of 16 hours sitting at a table.

 

It's called the martingale, and it's a great example of black swan events. In normal practice, you'll walk away a winner the most of the time; however, the odds are ultimately stacked such that you will lose at some point, and potentially to a catastrophic extent if you choose to extend the pattern into large sums to recover your losses. Conversely, wins will be fairly low relative to the stake, so it's incremental gains weighed against a collapse that becomes more likely the more you play, and eventually becomes inevitable.

So if it has worked up to this point, I'd suggest counting your blessings and quitting while ahead, heh.

 

I play the reverse martingale when I go to a casino. I bet minimum on evens and let it ride to a set amount. So if the minimum was £1, I might set the set amount to £128.

It's great fun having a £64 bet on red that's actually cost you £1 - I feel I get terrific value for money.

But, back on topic, this isn't what Saints are doing. Hopefully the plan is to play exciting football, end up above half way, bag the FA Cup and the Europa.

Vin

 

Yeah but the trick is, you're not really beating the odds. You're just being smart enough to walk away from the table when you're up. IF you are indeed smart enough to walk away from the table.

The reality is most of the time you will finish the sequence and be exactly 1 bet up. Then you start over again, and lose that bet to go even. You spend most of your time down, and every few bets or so, you recover to go about even. And then your friends get mad and are like "Come on, man. We've been waiting 20 minutes on you to go and eat at the buffet, will you get up and leave already?!??" And you are two bets into a losing sequence so you end up giving the house their advantage anyway.

 

Yep. It's called, amongst other things, the "Stop At A Winner System". It's hooked and broke more gamblers than a fishing tournament in a well stocked lake.

 

Yeah, though the trick is not merely walking away from the table, it's staying away in the future. Which is really the basis for a lot of gambling: if you've gotten lucky, the only way to remain lucky is to retire a winner.

 

So true, unless its done for fun. That way, just know when to walk away & don't consider it money down, but money spent instead. Gambling does not always have to be a problem, it can be a pleasant entertainment.

 

I am too mean to even think of gambling. In a moment of madness many years ago I backed a horse each way for a shilling. It lost and I said never again. I sometimes buy a Saints Foundation Lottery ticket but see that as a donation as I never bother to look to see if I've won.

 

I bet once and lost....never again. I suppose it is different if it is part of an evening out....you could just factor it in as part of the cost. I am amazed how many people will tell you that they have come out on top after an adult life of betting....that must be why all the bookies are broke.

Recent scientific research shows how illogical people are...they are more likely to stop if winning, whereas losing makes people reckless. Apparently been shown to be true for chimpanzees as well.

 

I'm not and have never been a gambler. Could never justify risking what little, disposable income I had, on something that might go tits up.
My youngest son has been working in the cash office of a Southampton casino, for 10 years or so, and there aren't many big or regular winners - and many that do win big return the next night/week and give it all back plus a bit more.

 

The way to stop yourself wasting money is to save it so you can see it mount up. I love eating tea and cake, but, every time I miss an opportunity to do so, I put the money in a piggy bank. The positive reinforcement means I often deliberately go home without my cake fix. By next year, I will have enough for a city break somewhere. I did it when young and bought my first tape deck. If you normally bet a £5 a week....that is a guaranteed £260 against a small chance of more which you will probably spend betting or drinking. The best choice is a combination of both...have some fun, but save some as well.

 

The way to stop yourself wasting money is to save it so you can see it mount up.
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The way to respect money is work hard for it. That's what I tell the young people, but they have this glazed look, so I don't think they are listening......
& a couple of them I'm responsible for!

 

My friend's grandson is disabled and the sole heir for several people, so one day he will be a millionaire. He has started working in a supermarket during the holidays....he is as proud as punch of the money he has earned by doing overtime. And we are proud of him.

 

Gambling: The sure way of getting nothing for something.

 

Transfers. Could be worse: https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/everton-transfer-thread-2016.81190/page-4871

Vin

 

I'm sorry for this also as I am normally one of the more positive posters on here, but since Puel has joined I've not listened/watched one video in full. After a few seconds I give up and wait to read the reactions on here. It may be a language thing (I'm not knocking it as if I did an interview in French it would be oui and non), but I just cannot warm to him at all. I also for some bizarre reason have zero confidence in him at the moment and feel this could be a bit of a Remi Garde appointment. Sorry guys, but really struggling with this.

No7

 

Same. Hoping to god he proves he is the right appointment, but from the change of style to the lack of charisma I just don't see it. After the gooners we have 3 home games in six days, I suppose by then we will know something we don't now.

 

That's him talking...he does throw himself into training and enjoys it, so not as dour as he comes over in interviews.

 

As Nicholas Monsarrat said: efficiency forgives everything from alcoholism to sodomy.

I don't need Puel to be charismatic, entertaining or interesting, I just need him to be good at his job.

Vin

 

It raises an interesting point though. Ron's profile maybe attracted bigger players, so is there a side issue? Just raising the question.