Okay folks, if you are planning on making the trek to Chantilly for the Arc or Arc weekend, here is something that you might like to know: On the France Galop site for Chantilly, the tickets for normal admission on Arc Sunday (2 October) are being advertised at €30. Given that virtually the whole card is made up of Group 1 races, many will not consider that to be too much – it is a little under £25 at current exchange rates, so on a par with many British courses offering lesser quality cards. Arc Sunday at Longchamp last year was €20, presumably a price inflated by Treve being on course for an Arc treble. If you are planning on going for the whole weekend, France Galop are currently advertising a weekend pass for Chantilly at €35, which has to be bought in advance. I am not sure that you can buy them on the gate on the Saturday like you could at Longchamp. It might be time for some to start putting a few Euros in the piggy bank...
With Royal Ascot (principally the Hardwicke, Ribblesdale and the Prince Of Wales) and the Prix De Diane out of the way, the Arc market has not changed markedly. At the top of the market (from OddsChecker): 5/1 Postponed 8/1 Minding 10/1 Harzand 12/1 US Army Ranger 14/1 La Cressonniere, New Bay 16/1 Order Of St George, A Shin Hikari, Makahiki, Duramente, Almanzor Of those that raced this last week (other than Diane winner La Cressonniere), The Queen’s Dartmouth has entered the betting at 25/1 and Highland Reel is 33/1. Sunday’s Chantilly action sees Prix Du Lys winner Spring Master offered at 33/1 and, interestingly, Diane runner-up Left Hand also 33/1. Whereas I have my doubts about Jean-Claude Rouget’s winner over the extra distance in October, Freddie Head’s Dubawi filly looks a good prospect at the odds. Of those mentioned, Dartmouth would need to be supplemented.
If you have plans to go to this year’s Arc at Chantilly, here is some advice. You cannot do a day trip on the Eurostar. The first Eurostar arrives in Gare du Nord at 11:47 and you have no realistic chance of getting the direct train to Chantilly twelve minutes later. I flew BA to Charles de Gaulle arriving at 9:40 and was at Gare du Nord just after 11:00 (RERB = €10). I could have taken RERD but with eleven stops before Chantilly, it takes nearly an hour, so the 11:59 Amiens train (€8.70) arriving at Chantilly 12:18 made most sense. According to France Galop, capacity at Chantilly is 30,000. I can only assume that they propose to erect some sort of temporary stand on the infield because there is absolutely no way that the main grandstand and facilities has a capacity of more than 10,000. The attached photos show the main grandstand three-quarters of an hour before the first race – most of this area filled up with racegoers by first race time – and the parade ring (foreground) encompassing the winner’s enclosure (left) behind the grandstand.
Met one of my friends on the bus yesterday. He is an avid racegoer and attends the 'Arc' every year. He advised me this year's event is all-ticket. His plan is to make a recce by going to Chantilly three weeks earlier for the 'Trials' day to get the lay of the ground. Good planning says I. Thought about a visit this year however glad I did not book flight and hotel as I have just returned from an 'extended' trip to Koln to see BAP. Planned trip of four nights spun out of control and lasted twenty four nights. At least within that period I managed to pick up a ticket (friends in Koln) for Germany v. Northern Ireland in Paris so had a two nighter in the French capital. Have had to cancel proposed trips to Mittenwald/Munchen and Auteuil in November. Ho-hum.
I am going to the Prix Vermeille, Prix Neil, Prix Foy and Prix Du Moulin card as well. I never really had any plans to go the Arc weekend as I figured it would be packed and the last twenty yards near the winning post will be cordoned off for the World’s media like Longchamp but with no alternate viewpoint because of lack of space. I pretty much only go to the races these days to see the best horses in the best races and take some photos. I did not get one decent photo of the Prix De Diane because (just like the Muppets that go to Ascot) the French all held up their mobile phones trying to take rubbish photos with a device clearly not designed for the job. They will have got small blurred images whilst I got nothing at all with my 35mm SLR designed for the job because I did not have a front row view. It may not be as busy on 11th September as Diane day had obviously been targeted at women and families.
My only visit to Chantilly was for the Prix du Jockey Club in 1999 when Montjeu won easily. One of the few times I have placed a Couple Ordre and been successful.. Still wasn't happy though as I had placed a substantial ante post bet on Montjeu in the Epsom Derby; this of course went down the tubes. Loved the walk from the train station through the woods to the track. Always remember my mum and I having a picnic just outside the station building; seem to recall a bakery and other food store just across from the station. Cannot imagine what it will be like on Arc day with all the crowds making their way from the station to the entrance to the track.
I can see myself nipping down the bookies for an ante post bet before Sunday. Andre Fabre’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner Ultra is scheduled to make his seasonal bow in the Prix Eugene Adam at Maisons-Laffitte. If he runs any sort of a credible race, then the horse that beat the 2000 Guineas winner will not be 40/1 and 33/1 with the bookies on Monday morning.
It is absolutely no surprise that the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes underwhelmed the bookies with regard to the betting for 2nd October at Chantilly. Coolmore have four horses in the market shorter than Highland Reel and much more likely to be chosen by Ryan Moore on the day. Known to favour quick ground, the winner Highland Reel is still available at 20/1 for those interested, whilst Dartmouth is a 33/1 chance. Erupt and Wings of Desire can be had at 40/1.
Very rare I'll back one antepost on the Flat but I've made an exception and taken 8/1 on Minding for this year's race before she, highly likely, wins today's Nassau and gets trimmed. Looking at the field we know it takes an exceptional older male to triumph here, Postponed for me has yet to go into that particular bracket so I couldn't have him. Missing the King George through injury hardly enhances confidence either. The 3 year old colts have a better chance but as O'Brien's US Army Ranger has next to nothing to find with Harzand, they will have a strong line whether the filly can beat him. The assumption is that she seems their number one and looks as good a filly as they've had in years. It could just take something special to beat her considering the allowances the fillies get, she's also ground versatile and the 8/1 looks tasty enough to me at this stage.
I dont doubt that Minding is good enough to be a big player in the Arc, shes a class filly, versatile and bombproof mentally, but im not sure she is being campaigned ideally to win an Arc. La Cressonniere has only had 3 runs so far and will probably only have one more before, she had the class and speed to win the French Guineas and won the French Oaks from a difficult position, the 1m4 is the question mark but she looks the value to me at 14/1, good prep and all the right tools for the race should she stay. They might run in the Vermille to find out.
I thought about backing La Cressonniere when she was 20/1 but she showed too much speed winning the Pouliches (and subsequently the slowly-run Diane) for me to think that she will be a stayer. I seem to recall that Jean-Claude Rouget nominated the Prix Jacques Le Marois as the next race for her. Whether they would then go for the Prix Vermeille as well is open to question; however, whilst the Vermeille has proved a good trial for the Arc, it is rarely run like a proper twelve furlong race; and if she scares off any likely opposition, it will not prove that she stays the trip if it turns into a typical French canter round and sprint in the straight. The owner’s racing manager said they could stick at ten furlongs and go for the Champion Stakes at Ascot, so she might not show up at all.
Id be very surprised if she didnt go for the Arc, either via the Vermille or the 1m2 race at Deuville that Avenir Certain won before running in the Arc. If not the Arc, then the Prix De Lopera on the same card would be more likely than Ascot I think as Rouget has Almanzor for the Champion. Heavy odds on to run in the Arc for me provided she wins her trial.
From yesterday. Unbeaten stablemate La Cressonniere, who won the French Oaks in June, will warm up for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in a Group Two at at Deauville later this month. Rouget said: "La Cressonniere has the Arc as her target, but first she runs in the Prix de la Nonette (August 23) and we'll see after Deauville."
The home defence of the Arc is starting to look like just the Jean-Claude Rouget stable. The Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville proved to be a replay of the Prix Du Jockey Club, as Rouget’s Almanzor led home Zarkava’s son Zarak again. Reportedly the plan for the winner may be the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Given that John Gosden’s Royal Artillery was just over two lengths third, this may not be great form but the winner had plenty in hand. The big disappointment of the race was Andre Fabre’s Ultra who was never travelling and trailed in well beaten. Fabre got compensation later on the card when New Bay was victorious in the Group 3 Prix Biron against four very ordinary rivals. Fans of conspiracy theories might be more willing to believe the French racing rumour mill now. There is allegedly a virus going around Chantilly, hence the lacklustre showing of many of the Criquette Head-Maarek and Andre Fabre strings of late. Rouget trains at Pau so his yard would be unaffected. The action at Deauville did not have a huge impact on the Arc market. Wootton Bassett’s son Almanzor is available at 16/1, as is New Bay. There are only five French horses in the first twenty of the betting – and Rouget is responsible for three of them: 14/1 La Cressonniere and 16/1 Zelzal being the other two. At the head of the market, Derby hero Harzand and Coronation Cup winner Postponed share favouritism at 6/1 ahead of Oaks heroine Minding at 8/1. You could be in for a long wait. The best I can see is 25/1. My each way on Ultra is balancing on the rim of the bin.
Shirocco, Danedream, Novellist and other 'German' horses would seem to have put paid to the 'stupidity' shown by UK bookmakers. Will wait and see if the 25/1 offered by Stan James is bettered!
The Arc looks between the two 3year old fillies now. La Cressonniere could be top class or she could just be another jog and sprint merchant, found out when she's in a better run race. Who knows, but she's very hard to knock at present. As an older horse, carrying the weight, Postponed looks to have a heck of a lot on his plate to beat these two. His Juddmonte beating of one of the most substandard King George winners in recent times shouldn't be good enough. Also his beating of Found, looks below standard when we consider that one was (again) beaten on the Knavesmire by another Classic generation filly. Those liking the Epsom Derby form probably wished they hadn't seen the Royal Whip on Sunday either which again brings me back to the fillies. Out of the pair I still think Minding wins this, she's more proven, and the 8/1 looks seriously overpriced based on recent events.
Agree Beefy, I think Minding and La Cressonniere are the best 3yos in Europe this year. I thought the Derby form was strong again but it looks very shaky now, plenty thought it looked a poor Derby going in and the form has started to unravel a bit, Idaho only beat Housesofparliament in the Voltigeur, USAR well beaten the other day, Humphrey Bogart well beaten by Kings Fete in Group 2, Stellar Mass and Red Verdon from the Irish Derby probably Group 3 horses. Harzand is a tough horse and you couldnt write him off on soft, but not sure hes actually beaten a Group 1 horse this season. Postponed looks the top colt but he has a massive task to give the fillies the weight as Orfevre found out. Many form lines suggest there isnt a lot between Minding and La Cressonniere on paper but I think the French filly is more suited to the race and has had the better preparation, Minding upside is she has won at the trip. Both fillies have shown they can overcome adversity as well which is a must for this race. Minding murdered for a run in the Oaks and still won comfy, La Cressonniere 2nd last and wide turning in for the French Oaks, took a bump in the straight and still won comfy from Left Hand who had a perfect trip round the inside. I think the French filly is improving still, she was really electric today beating a Group 1 winner dont forget, I think she will leave them standing in the straight with that burst.
I wouldn't write off the Derby form based on US Army Ranger- he's a big baby and was coming back from a setback. Idaho hasn't done it much harm. I still think Mindings most impressive win was the Oaks so I hope they get get back over 12f but the fact she is 8/1 makes me wonder if she will even be aimed at the Arc. Knowing Ballydoyle she'll be in the pissing Champion Stakes Have to give Varian some credit because Postponed has looked a different horse this year he really has.
