As Andy said the other day, you get a better idea of what is happening by listening to the select committees than a PMQs session. A damming report came out of the FCO Select Committee yesterday about the troubles the last Government has left for the new regime. An extract from the summary talks about gross negligence. Finally, in our April 2016 report on the implications of the referendum on EU membership for the UK’s role in the world, we described the FCO’s apparent lack of any contingency planning for a vote to leave the EU as “regrettable”. Since the referendum, the extent of the Government’s lack of preparation for a potential “leave” vote has become more evident. In the light of the appointment of the new Prime Minister on 13 July, the previous Government’s confidence that basic planning for the practicalities of implementing Brexit could be undertaken at a leisurely pace after the vote now appears at best naïve and at worst negligent. The previous Government’s considered view not to instruct key Departments including the FCO to plan for the possibility that the electorate would vote to leave the EU amounted to gross negligence. It has exacerbated post-referendum uncertainty both within the UK and amongst key international partners, and made the task now facing the new Government substantially more difficult. The lack of contingency planning inevitably means that the Government’s plans are tentative and just emerging. We intend to examine these at the earliest available opportunity, including how the Government plans to consult other interested parties in the UK. Listening to the chairman of the committee it became clear that even politicians did not know what the implications of a leave vote would be, and his belief was it would be many years before we could produce an effective team of people to get a good deal for the UK.
To be fair what possible contingency planning could have worked? Brexiters were a wide spectrum of people motivated by different aspirations. None of them had a clue what they wanted from Brexit - and there were and are various different priorities amongst them. Remainers correctly identified that there would be uncertainty that would affect sterling and shares - and they were correct - but nothing could have prevented the fall of the pound or stock markets around the world reeling. The Bank of England is independent of government and did indeed have plans. However as we saw from ERM days no country is powerfu enough to seriously impact global market forces on currencies. Just what does the FCO Select committee believe could have been done in advance of the referendum? It is clear now that nobody is managing the stock market or currencies - they cannot be settled until theterms of Brexit are worked out. It was ultimately for those who think Brexit can work to tell us how - Remainers did not - and still do not - believe it can be anything other than negative.
July saw a dramatic deterioration in the economy, with business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009. The downturn, whether manifesting itself in order book cancellations, a lack of new orders or the postponement or halting of projects, was most commonly attributed in one way or another to ‘Brexit’. BBC News
http://www.connexionfrance.com/fran...ovement-single-market-18291-view-article.html " PRESIDENT François Hollande has promised that Britons living in France will be welcome to stay in the country after Brexit, but warned the UK that it cannot expect access to the single market without free movement. At a joint press conference with new Prime Minister Theresa May following a meeting at the Élysée Palace, Mr Hollande said: "There is no doubt that French people in the UK will be able to continue to live and work there, and equally British people who are in France can continue to work and spend as much time as they want here." He is the first European leader to publicly guarantee the future of expat Britons in an EU country. "
http://chronicle.gi/2016/07/spain-could-veto-brexit-talks-margallo-says/ I wonder how Theresa MayOrMayNot will handle this? All previous reference to a Spanish veto has been aimed at Scotland & the wish to remain in the EU. That having been proven to be nonsense, it now seems that Brexit is in danger unless UK give up Gibraltar...
Morgan Stanley issued the following note to investors. http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-economic-consequences-may-never-happen-2016-7 If it wasn't so dry the grass would be getting even longer.
Nobody abroad can prevent Brexit - Article 50 invokes it and is a done deal once applied. All the Spanishcan do is be difficult on any deals - and ultimately the power of the big economies will force them to comply - Germany rules OK Not seen you here since I returned BB I think - hope all is well with you - assume you were pro Remain?
Gibraltar economy so tied up with Europe too... and I think it was 94% In favour of remain.... another very tricky one
Boris has been telling the UN that we can stay in the single market, retain the passporting rights and restrict freedom of movement. Does he know something that is not obvious to the rest of us?
Two days before the EU referendum last month, May said it was “inconceivable” that there would be no hard border in the event of Brexit. She told the BBC: “If we were out of the European Union with tariffs on exporting goods into the EU, there’d have to be something to recognise that between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. “And if you pulled out of the EU and came out of free movement, then how could you have a situation where there was an open border with a country that was in the EU and had access to free movement?” Today a month later she is visiting Northern Ireland. Theresa May will reassure the first minister of Northern Ireland that there will be no return to border checks for people entering the UK from the Republic of Ireland despite Britain’s vote to leave the EU. May said she wanted to underline her commitment to the Belfast agreement, arguing that “peace and stability in Northern Ireland will always be of the highest priority for my government”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/brexit-deal-free-movement-exemption-seven-years I think that there might be a lot happening behind the scenes as Redwood is getting all worked up again.
Looking interesting....... a face saver for all sides? NO major institution wants BREXIT as we have noted again and again This likes like "Schengen PLUS"..... The article reports Boris... as though he has been reined in.... and that is part of a deal. “I’ve absolutely no doubt that that balance can be struck, and over the next few weeks we’ll be discussing that in the government and with our European friends and partners,” Johnson said Looking very hopeful for a way forward.....
I would be very sceptical of this. Such a special deal would open the way for other countries to do the same. Also the argument of population density applies only to England and not to the UK. as a whole. Britain would have a negotiating position on this if they had successfully controlled non EU immigration, which they haven't. It may also give the Brexiters the idea that even more concessions are on the way if they push harder. How can other European states take an emergency break for the UK. seriously when they, themselves, have higher European migration - eg. Italy has over a million migrants from Rumania, how are they supposed to react to such a plan ?
If it became a big issue for other EU countries then maybe they would demand it too - but would they be willing to have areferendum with an out vote to get it - I strongly doubt it especially as you keep telling us Cologne - the other EU member states do not seem as bothered by movement of people which they have experienced for centuries - unlike the UK
I agree on Europe's borders Leo. With or without Schengen they have always been porous - how could it be otherwise when a country like Germany has 9 land borders ? Unless you build a barbed wire fence around the country there will always be a way through - however, such a situation can lead to more xenophobia rather than less. Disregarding that, Britain has more experience of immigration than most other European countries, due to its colonial past. This has always marked Britain as being a little bit further in matters 'multi cultural'. Can you imagine any other European country having a Moslem as lord mayor of its capital ? Or where policewomen can where a headscarf as part of their uniform ? People of immigrant descent are ok. to play for the French or German national football teams but you will not find them as highly represented in eg. the civil service as in the UK. this is something which Britain can be proud of - look around for a German policeman of Turkish descent and you will have a long wait.
