As soon as May becomes Prime Minister to it will rise again. When the deals get done it will go up again. Elections in France and Germany next year will make it rise due to Euroscepititism.
Which backs up my point that certainty is good, but uncertainty is bad. And we've just thrown businesses the biggest ball of uncertainty since 2008...
I have not said uncertainty is good? I know it is bad for business, i said that in a previous post. I also said that We have had a major change and things will settle down. Just seen Euro at 1.20 what happened to all the project fear projections that it would fall through the floor? It's not happening and you can write detailed arguments about 'what if' but as far as I can see, things are starting to get back on track. However, i will agree that this could be short lived as it has a bounce but forecasts are looking good.
I never said you did say that. I was using what you said as further validation of what I said. What I will say is that your read on how good things will be is very different from the feelings of every single business I have had contact with over the past three weeks, and they certainly don't share your unbridled optimism.
Well i am sad that every business you have had contact with feel that way, i also find it starnge. I guess the company i work for is forward thinking and not so pessimistic.
Everyone is looking ahead. Business cannot afford not to. They also cannot afford to be unreasonably optimistic unless the underlying economic circumstances make that an option. I would worry about companies that ignore the risks that all companies currently need to consider.
So no actual discussion points coming from you? No actual spelling out the benefits? I thought you'd done your research? Or have (as I strongly suspect) all the so-called 'benefits' been proved false? Please Goldie, if you're looking to provoke, carry on as you are. If you're looking to engage in debate and discussion, you really need to try harder and actually have a point...
I'm not looking to provoke you, Chaz - the benefits of leaving the EU have been spelled out many times on this thread. Did you read my reply to you at #5368 for example? You may say the benefits aren't worth the temporary uncertainties, but to claim there aren't benefits suggests you're seriously in denial
This one: There's no 'benefits' there. There's an admission that we can't control our borders either inside or outside the EU, there's a false statement about the ECJ/ECHR which presumes that anyone trying to get into the country that we may not want will already have the court on their case (clearly not true - we CAN and DO refuse entry to them, they then need to go raise and win a case, which is very different from the picture you paint), your linked article refers to the ECJ and NOT the EU (and we're still very much subject to the ECJ irrespective of whether we're in the EU or not), and you then repeat the Leave mantra that 'everything will be alright'. Not a single benefit to being in the EU, on the one post that you direct me to. I am sat here at present becoming more and more certain that my thoughts on this whole sorry mess that the Lying Leave Campaign led us into are spot on, and no one has yet presented a coherent position, based on truth and objective evidence, that this is anything but a massive error of judgement by the 17 million Leave voters.
I am agreeing with Goldhawk on this one Chaz. For someone who claims ''I am a business analyst' i don't find your argument that convincing. You mentioned the dollar which i said was inflated and all you seemed to worry about was it's position today? Agree that is important but good analyst's look at long term projects. You also made a huge error yesterday describing the Brexit team as 'disappearing' yet every news team/analyst/political expert has said they will get certain jobs? I am pretty sure Chris Grayling and Dr Liam Fox will also be offered jobs as well. I understand you were a remainer and some points i agree with you but you do sound a bit 'doom and gloom' in parts. Your comments about 'every business you have spoken to' also came across as a negative (especially for business). As i said i am not an economics guru but business's go through many challenges and the there is always a certain risk with that. Like the chap on Sky news said earlier that this is an amazing time to forge new friendships and deals. I think i am in his camp.
Afternoon all. We may not be using the same meaning of the word "benefit". I understand where Chaz is coming from, but I respect that Goldie thinks he has answered the point. Humour me in my attempt to clarify and achieve greater understanding between us, will you? If you're a reader who knows this sort of stuff already, please don't feel patronised, that's not my intention. Imagine you're selling your car to someone. You might tell the buyer that it has a 200BHP engine. That isn't a benefit - it's a feature of the car. If you also added "which means you'll be able to overtake safely on country lanes" then it still might not be a benefit, because you don't know if that is important to the buyer. If they do want to overtake safely, the 200BHP feature gives them the benefit of "safer overtaking". If they don't care, it means nothing to them. Using Border Control as an example: "We can control who comes into our country to live and work" is a feature of Border Control, not a benefit. Adding, "which means we can reduce the number of Polish plumbers coming here who work for less than the existing rate charged by British plumbers" might be a benefit if you're a British plumber being undercut all the time, but not if you run a plumbing company and want to employ less expensive staff. Benefits depend on who you are and what you want How about Sovereignty: "We'll be able to make our own laws again without an EU court affecting us" is a feature, not a benefit. What are the benefits of being able to do that? Anyone?
You're right to point out a certain subjectivity, BD. But it's a fact that because of immigration, we're adding 1 million to our (already dense) population every 3 years. We need to have a proper system of control for EU and non-EU immigration, and if there's a will, there's a way. Theresa May has to deliver this, or she'll be a failed prime minister. On Sovereignty, particularly the rule of law, I'd just repeat what I said in #5368 "We have 1000 years of judicial history - countries from all over the world have their contracts governed by English law out of respect for its veracity and fairness, and they want their disputes resolved by English Courts because of the trust placed in them. Now, suddenly, we have a Continental court shoved on top, supreme over all our courts." In the EU we have Continental judges from a number of countries overruling our most senior judges. Have a look at the legal system in Italy. It's a fiasco. Luxembourg's legal system is highly unsophisticated. We've got judges from Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia even Romania overruling our highest courts. To say we're dumbing down our legal system is an understatement. Let English judges make the decisions that govern us. If they mess up, they'll be removed. Let British politicians make decisions that govern our lives - if they mess up, we vote them out
'Claims'? I'm not 'claiming' to be an Analyst, it's a fact. It's been my job for the past twenty years. So please don't suggest I'm not very aware of my position. My point on the dollar is valid. Depending on where you look, you can pick pretty much any date that supports your position. The ONLY relevant figures are the ones immediately before the referendum and the impact since. That's obvious. As for not looking 'long term - I assume (for the sake of not getting into an argument) that you're not suggesting that I'm a bad analyst. Analysts look at long, medium, and short term situations, issues, risks, and propose strategies and solutions to make the best possible outcome on all of these. The long term view is usually an unknown, and the situation is clearer and easier to forecast the closer to the present you get. That's why a weatherman can tell you it'll rain tomorrow, but not that it'll be sunny next year - the data simply isn't clear. And that's where we are now. The long term forecasts have far too many unknown elements, and the outlook for next year, or three years time, will only become clearer when we understand the impacts of the short-term and medium-term situations. Trouble is, they are also unknown pretty much, because of the economic and political upheaval of the past month and the fact that so much still needs to be agreed. As for the Leave team disappearing - they ran faster than a roadrunner as soon as it looked like they might be held to account and have to do any actual work. For Boris, this was all about the top job. He's coveted the PM job since Eton, and when he realised that it would not all be plain sailing, he stood down rather than admit it was too tough. Gove was cynical but transparently naive, IDS has said one thing since the referendum, which was 'I back Leadsom'. Well that turned out well, didn't it? And Farage quit again, but not until he insulted all of those who had been paying his wages for the past seven years. Finally, this whole 'doom and gloom' thing. Again, someone has to look at stuff that's going on with the eye of a realist. Business hate uncertainty, and that's what is affecting business most right now. It's stopping companies from moving forward, because they do not understand the environment into which they will move. That's the same for all business people I have spoken to through my work - a uniform concern about what the future will be either next month, next year, or five years down the line. There's rarely been such a lack of confidence in their business forecasts, because there are just so many unknowns. And businesses cannot afford to simply dismiss these risks, which are all assessed on both likelihood of occurrence and impact if they do occur. Trust me - you may think I'm being negative (and my view may appear on the surface to be so) but this is very real and a very truthful appraisal of what I'm having to work with at the moment. I'm not saying any of this to be contrary, and I'm not saying any of this as a Remain voter. I'm saying it because it's real, and I can't simply ignore it and trust that everything will turn out OK. If I do that, I'm not doing my job.
I can only knock my head against a brick wall for so long. You have your opinion. You think we're doomed. Let's leave it at that.
Chaz you claimed to be an analyst and that's all i said. Chill bud, your job is stressing you out. You weren't part of Cameron's project fear campaign was you? Anyway back to debate As i said, i am not an analyst like you (not a dig) and we will just have to see how things will turn out. Teresa May will be in No10 by tonight and will be picking her team. We shall just have to see how many of the Brexit lot that you said would disappear end up with jobs. You said If i am wrong i will come on here tomorrow or the next day and apologise to you and say, Chaz you were right they disappeared.
