Off Topic Impact of Brexit on Football

I am not wrong about a recession - we are definitely in one. The trouble is we won't know it for a few months, but we are. Without a shadow of a doubt.

The issue with your link about winners and losers from a weak pound is that we do not export goods. We export services. As it quite clearly says, it relies on demand elsewhere - there is none.

The only winners from the weak pound are the hedge funds all shorting the pound right now because its going to keep collapsing. It's an unmitigated disaster.

I have set out all the reasons we are approaching impending disaster above and the only response I am getting is "no we are not". I'm sorry, but fingers in your ears is not helpful right now. This is worse than "Project Fear" predicted. It makes "Project Fear" look more like "Project Positivity About How Bad It's Going To Be".

There is every reason to judge from this - the markets predict consequences. They know exactly why this is an absolute catastrophe.


Fortunately, as all the leading Tory Leave representatives have made clear - it isn't going to happen. They are going to rescue our economy by keeping us in the EU. Apart from we won't be a member. So it will all be exactly the same, except that we will have caused ourselves some momentary economic pain and we will no longer be able to contribute to the EU legislation we are bound by. Oh and we will be getting freedom of movement anyway as it's essential to our economy.

 

Rob I could reply further in greater detail, but I don't think its going to help and is only going to take up my time. Markets today are showing a slight bounce back, although I suspect in the short term that there will be volatility in the markets, it may well get worse before it gets better. We do export goods, but nowhere near as much as we did before we joined the EU. You also neglect to mention that a low pound makes imports more expensive making UK products more competitive. You think we are facing economic oblivion and I don't. You say you have given your reasons for the impending economic disaster, which are generally based on facts that are either incorrect or not come to fruition yet. I say nothing has happened so far that wasn't expected and we can't possibly tell what the future in 2 years is going to be. Lets not panic and wait and see how things develop.

The only other thing I would add is the vote for large swathes of people that voted out was not solely about economics it was some much more fundamental things than that. We can't judge everything in this life by monetary value alone. As some on here said they voted out because they thought it was the right thing to do, not because it was the easy thing to do.

 

Rob the lower pound helps me transfer money back to the UK.... that means I win and I don't own a hedge fund haha.

In 2013 AUS$ got to 1:69p it went down iun late 2015 to 1:48p since the result it went from 1:50 to 1:55p. Australia has seen far for of a currency fluctuation than we have.

Keep calm. Tourists will want to spend more when on holiday and there are so many countries that are outside the EU that will want to get free trade deals. If you say that it will be impossible then you just have to look at the AUS/JAP deal that was signed a couple of years ago.

As far as football is concerned I would now love it if we put some rules i.e. no more than 10 foreigners in the 25 man squad (I.e. 15 from UK and Ire) and no more than 7 in a match day squad. Maybe England would be a bit better then..... well you have to dream!

 

Whilst how favourable a trade deal might be when we negotiate without the EU, and you can argue plenty about that, the logistics of arranging trade deals is going to be ridiculously difficult. "China daily" (I've no idea of their reliability, but at least I doubt they have a leave/remain bias!) reckon it would take 500 British negotiators and 10 years to arrange a trade deal. A BBC article claims in January that we don't have any British trade negotiators, the need for them was lost in 1973 as the EU negotiates for us. Whilst I'm not convinced that's entirely accurate, it won't be a huge number.

Even if we could commit a team of 500 to a 10 year negotiation, that's only one agreement with one country. If anyone on here is looking for a new career, I suspect trade negotiators are going to be needed for centuries just to make the agreements we currently have thanks to the EU/are negotiating through the EU.

 

If there is any doubt about what the Leave campaign said re the £350m per week, have a look at this:

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For all those with a half-full glass in front of them right now - CarrowCanario, I'm looking at you:

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Treasury Commission is saying this morning that the drop in the £ is consistent with their models showing the dollar price to be $1.20 by the end of 2016.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the pound has been below $1.28 in the last 40 years. Presumably the Treasury Commission is referring to predictive models they made in case Brexit happened. There's no way it would be down to £1.20 otherwise.

 

Yes, its according to their Brexit model. They've confirmed that how the £ has reacted is consistent with their model so far.

 

Which of my facts is wrong? All of them are correct.

As I said, the reason it is not going to be an economic disaster is that, fortunately, we won't get Brexit (other than perhaps optically, if at all). Johnson and co have all made it quite clear that we will be retaining full access to the internal market as a priority. Which means freedom of movement.

No doubt there will be a sop or two to the Brexit voters (there has to be - it was a clear democratic decision) but the reality is that the politicians that lied to win the referendum will lie in order to keep us a part of the EU in all but name. Then everybody is happy.

 

In that case we're heading for a bloody civil war mate

 

No we won't. The population are already being told by Gove, Johnson and co that this is what will happen. They will be carrying out "Brexit" exactly as requested.

 

More's the pity then, what this country needs is an ultra strong right wing government with a strong mandate to sort out the wheat from the chaff

 

Just seen this on the BBC website -
The campaign claim: We send £350m a week to Brussels, which could be spent on the NHS instead.
The current claim: The claim was a mistake, and we will not be able to spend that much extra on the NHS.
Reality Check verdict: Some of those who campaigned for Leave are now distancing themselves from this claim. Some have gone as far as admitting that it had been a mistake.

One of the most controversial claims of the campaign was that the UK sends £350m a week (or £50m a day) to Brussels, which could be spent on the NHS instead.
Vote Leave's Gisela Stuart was among those to make the claim, saying "Every week we send £350m to Brussels. I'd rather that we control how to spend that money, and if I had that control I would spend it on the NHS." - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36641390

 

I'm expecting a sizeable clamp-down on non-EU immigration in order to appease certain factions, plus a concession from the EU to allow us to "take back control" of some irrelevant area of government where we'd probably agree mostly anyway. Then in a decade those tightened immigration rules will begin to be relaxed again as the lack of cheap labour starts to hit the economy, and as a cost saving measure we'll return that power to the EU.

When it comes to maintaining free market access but blocking freedom of movement in a single direction (meaning UK people can travel freely but other Europeans can't come to the UK as easily), we'd need an almighty bargaining chip to negotiate that one. The only thing I can think of would be to commit the British armed forces wholeheartedly to the EU army project. I'd love to see Boris/Gove/Farage sell that one.

Edit: I wonder if you could argue that it's wrong to punish UK citizens individually by the loss of their EU passport for a decision made en masse. You tend to need good reason to strip an individual of their nationality, perhaps the same could be applied here. That would allow current UK citizens to freely travel/work in the EU, whilst regaining border control. Although I suspect those born in the future might be pissed off at the older generation pulling up that particular ladder with them, but that's a recurring theme anyway.

 

In which case expect UKIP to get stronger, the conservative party to split and labour to become a minority party.

 

UK firms say it's business as usual but Branson warns on recession

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ce-and-legal-general-business-as-usual-brexit

 

Recession & effect of low pound. I'll try and keep it simple

Definition of a recession is a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. In the 4th Q of 2015/16 ending 31/03/16 our GDP increased by 0.4% so by all established norms we are not currently in recession. Once GDP of the the 1st Q of 2016 / 17 is known we will have a better idea of the direction of travel, but even if falls we will not be in recession. Here's a link that explains the generally accepted causes of recession.

http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/economic-growth/cause-recession2/

Even Moody's the rating agency that downgraded our rating says Brexit will not trigger recession.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...ecession-UK-economy-grow-Moody-s-ratings-boss

You agreed with me that a low pound is not necessarily a totally a bad thing, But you felt it is mostly an incredibly bad thing. It causes our trade deficit to shoot up (remember we export less than we import). Not by accepted norms I've already provide you with a link that explains this.

I guess if someone wanted to disregard general accepted economic norms then you might not be incorrect, but on planet earth you are.

 

Is the argument here not that we aren't yet in a technical recession because that takes six months of GDP decrease, but that you could bet vast sums on us being in a recession in six months time, because there's no way our economy recovers from this position to post positive figures in either quarter?

 

Correct.

And that our economy is structured such that a fall in the pound is overall negative for us. Not least for servicing debt in other currencies, but for myriad tedious reasons. We are not an economy that benefits from low sterling. Sorry Canario. We're not China.