I see that three things are becoming more likely judging by comments from our leaders. 1. A second referendum. 2. A general election. 3. The long grass beckons.
That's strange I thought I heard Cameron say in parliament yesterday that the referendum result should be respected, so it stays. He also said we have a fixed parliament for five years so no election. Article 50 will be activated once we have a new prime minister in September. The long grass is in your garden.
Does Cameron have any real authority in Parliament now ? Fixed term elections means only that a specific date is chosen for General elections, as opposed to the situation where the government could choose the date (between their 4th and 5th year of government) - it does not prevent an election being held in the middle of an election term in emergency situations.
Boris must be odds on to be the next prime minister but interestingly the candidate chosen to be Conservative leader in the last three elections has not been the favourite. Theresa May would be a unifying force, not so popular in the party but an excellent Home Secretary.
Hang on - on item 4, I thought you said that there were no EU laws in Britain, they were all UK laws? If there are laws that are not compatible with an independent UK, then they can be selectively repealed at our leisure. Brexit voters are not eluded, most realised exactly what was being played out an called Cameron's bluff and Farage's gambit and used them against each other to firstly force the vote and then carry it. As Cameron stated in Parliament yesterday, article 50 will be activated in September by the new PM - hopefully Teresa May. But you carry on deluding yourself that a UK exit from EU political union will not happen.
£ at its lowest for 31 years w-y. I wish I had your optimism but there is precious little evidence for it. Even amongst our politicians whose job it is. Just listened to a great interview of Osbourne by Nick Robinson. I think the reality of it is I am influenced by what I read and hear... .we all are..... and I just see little hard evidence from any source for optimism. I cant find one positive comment.... apart from Putin ..... seriously Where are the top Brexiters coming out with their plans??? Merkel has sensibly thank goodness (...oh hang on I thought Brexiters wanted to be free of her ... ) pulled France and co. into a more moderate place of waiting to give the UK some space I am particularly interested by the comments of Jeremy _unt this morning in terms of standing for the top job on the back of a general election and/or a second referendum based on proposed changes. I wonder if he is flying a kite to test opinion. Some discussion on the Today programme re a new relationship with Europe based on some new rethinking of immigration/free movement of people plus a BBC reporter with Asian roots recording racist comments in a pub interview..... We have to have a free trade agreement with Europe and be joined up on security with mulit-alteral agreements on research, education, health, the environment, health and safety,,, etc etc A mammoth task if all to be rewritten 5-10 years???
I don't understand any of the first part of this text. As for the second part - after saying all along that he would activate Article 50 himself immediately after a negative referendum he has backed down and said 'after you Claude' - do it if you dare. I think that we are moving to a situation where nobody actually wants to be PM. in this situation.
There are many candidates for PM, they all know article 50 will be activated soon after the new PM is in office. There is no reason to have an general election. Didn't you say Corbyn will fight the 2020 election? He may well do but only after ruining a proud party by splitting it in two.
- FTSE is up 2.2 % this morning and the pound is at 1.33 to the $ - so not now at a 31 year low. These things are very dynamic Yorkie and picking a single point is no measure, it's trends that cause the damage - as I said look at the graphs and the £ has been falling against the $ since last October. - So there are not statements for virtually every leading world organisation. - Interesting discussion on the money programme on 5 live this morning. Feeling now is that if a mini recession is likely, interest rates are likely to fall and thus mortgages and other loan payments reduce. So the spectre of higher mortgages portrayed by Osbourne, The IMF, The OECD etc etc seems to be just another scare story.
I have a serious question that I would be very interested to hear peoples opinions upon - something that has been rattling around in my head for a few weeks. One of the key elements in this whole Brexit debate was that the UK could not have access to the EU market without also allowing free access for EU citizens to live and work in the UK and one of the key elements that drove the leave vote was to be able to control this economic migration. My question is rather simple, why is there this connection? Why does the free movement of goods and services have to be linked to the freedom to live and work in another EU country? Is there an economic reason? Or is this a pure political reason? I am struggling to find a real solid reason why these have to be linked and why they could not be unlinked.
1 But has it not been falling to some extent because of impending BREXIT? It rose to 1.50 briefly on Thursday. 2. I am not going to waste my time trawling through. But I stand by my reading of it.... 3 I guess things got so bad on Friday that lowering of rates to zero seemed the one positive thing that they could offer. Question for you: Why would every major institution choose to raise a 'scare' story? There clearly were and are major concerns.
This has niggled me too..... EU saying we cant have the Norway option without free movement etc etc Fair to say that if UK had been able to restrict immigration/free movement the result would have likely been to Remain.
They are linked because the cornerstone of the EU. is free mobility of goods, services, finances and people. If you ever want to have a part in unlinking these things the only place to do it is in the EU. itself. If you want to have free access to European markets then you have to play by all the rules - you cannot pick and choose. That is the official version - now for the reality. Everyone knows that completely free movement is a problem within a zone which has such vast economic differences within it - absolutely unchecked it could lead to a demographic problem, both to 'sending' and 'receiving' countries (depopulation for the one and strains on resources for the other) - but we have not reached those proportions yet. You must realize that most people want to stay at home ie. in a place where they understand the language and can have their qualifications recognized - this in itself limits migration to an extent. In addition to this the best way to control migration is at source ie. through being a part of a system which is the only one capable of raising living standards in Eastern Europe to such an extent where people do not want to leave.
In addition I will say that although Angela Merkel wants to give Britain reasonable time on this - she is clear as to the character of negotiations after activation of Article 50. To quote in her own words: ''Wir werden sicherstellen, das die Verhandlungen nicht nach dem Prinzip der Rosinenpickerei geführt werden'' For those who can't speak German that means that the negotiations will not be carried through on the basis of Britain thinking it can take the best bits of the EU. (the raisins) and leave the rest.
Matthias Wissmann, from the German Automotive Industry Association, said the UK would have to accept the "bitter pill" of free movement. Restricting access to the UK was a key promise of the Leave campaign. Leave campaigners also argued that, to help car exports, Germany would push for a generous trade deal with the UK. However, the German carmakers appear to be taking a tough line. "We don't like to build new barriers... but any bid to secure full access to the single market would necessarily come with conditions. Everyone who negotiates on the British side will understand that," Mr Wissmann said. "If you want full access to the market, that comes necessarily with the free movement of people. That's the bitter pill the Brexiteers have to accept."
Never mind this sounds like a welcome boost to the UK car industry. We don't need Audis, BMWs and Mercs.
But you told me that the Germans would have to be sensible and give us a great deal.. That doesn't sound much like your earlier view.
The head industrialist in Germany said it would be very very foolish to impose sanctions on the UK as it would lead to unemployment in Germany. This is the sensible view. If there is appetite to adopt the spitefulness advocated by the French then as a result if EU imports are more expensive then UK cars would be more attractive to buy. Not hard to work out.
It is not hard to work out that the Brexit case was based on promises which cannot be kept and on suppositions of how Europe would react (which they had no right to dress up as promises).
I've been following most of this thread with interest and occasionally almost got involved but managed to keep quiet, but can I just say SH "Wow" nothing else just "Wow"
