Off Topic Impact of Brexit on Football

Yep, you're right. Sorry I thought we'd moved past that.
To clarify, yes, he is of course an elected MEP. I was more referring to Westminster, but I didn't make that clear and you're quite right.

 

I think you're right, Norkie, except that I believe that criminals are already barred from free movement, even within the EU. Using a points system for non-EU citizens would not be a problem, but I doubt that the EU would agree to one being applied to EU citizens, as that, by definition, would not be 'free movement'.
Boris has said in his latest column for the Telegraph that he favours an EFTA type relationship with the EU, but with the points system you suggest, which would mean free movement to the EU for our citizens but not for theirs coming here. A bit one-sided to succeed in any negotiation of an agreement.

Here's the article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

 

I haven't seen the 75% figure anywhere, JK, but I'd be surprised if it is as much as that. Switzerland is also an EFTA member, but has negotiated it's own agreement with the EU to gain access to the single market. There must be some degree of flexibility, but free movement is not negotiable if we want access.

 

To be fair, upon closer inspection it seems to be anything from 21% and above that Norway adheres to. Basically the 21% and 75% figures are both from old(ish) reports and it's debatable as to which is more accurate. One thing is for certain though - Norway continues to take adhere to newly implemented legislation as per their agreement, so it sounds like the figure is rising on an ongoing basis.

 

A lighthearted look at why one girl voted out, it's well worth watching!

 

It may be that the Swiss approach would be a better model. I believe that the legislation/regulations would have to apply solely to the single market agreement (like any other trade agreement) if it is to work. I can't see why the UK or any other EFTA country would be expected to comply with other EU legislation. Norway's prime concern was non-involvement in the common fisheries legislation, which obviously wasn't considered necessary for an agreement to be reached in their case. It would depend on us negotiating an agreement which suits both ourselves and the EU.

 

Clearly i wasn't saying the EU brought us out of war, but sure, waste both our time in pretending i was. I am saying that it helped cement certain European relations (us, France and the Germans in particular) at a time when they were fraught. The EU, as we have come to think of it now, was 1993, sure, but really, the roots of which are firmly cemented in the 50s and in post war Europe - whether that was called the EU or not. Bit silly to make out that the EU has had no part in improving relations in Europe, but sure, if that's what the pamphlet said...

 

As Winston Churchill said at the end of the war, "we must re-create the European family in a regional structure called, it may be, the United States of Europe".

His full speech about the 'tragedy of Europe' in 1946 here: http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html

 

This entire thing is an unmitigated disaster. We must be the only country in the world whose population have voted in favour of pushing its economy to its knees.

The World: "Careful! That plate is hot."

The UK: "You don't get to tell us what to do."

*UK grabs plate*

The UK: "Nobody could have predicted this pain."

The World is laughing at us.

 

Laughing or crying, Rob, but it's good to have you back mate!

 

Oh I'm sorry I thought when you said

That was what you meant. I must have misunderstood.

 

Our economy is not on it's knees. Everyone just needs to calm down a bit. Whether it was a good decision or not cannot possibly be judge on a couple of days market reaction, it will take many years before we have any idea whether it was a good decision or not. Although to be fair if the remain campaign hadn't been saying how bad it would be if we left the reaction might not have been as great as it was.

 

I chose to vote leave because I thought it was the right choice ..not the easy choice..........and as has been said it will be a good few years until we know.

 

So we're blaming the Remain campaign for creating fear out of nothing and the markets responding, rather than both the Remain camp and the markets respectively warning/reacting against the same set of facts? I guess that's one perspective.

Boris didn't even turn up to Parliament today apparently. The man responsible for leading Britain into its biggest decision for decades, and the PM elect, cowering at home because he knows he's utterly ****ed. In years to come this will be the textbook case of a pyrrhic victory.

 

I really fear for the UK if he is elected to replace Cameron!!!

 

To be fair I think in almost every post I made in relation to the campaigns I've been critical of both campaigns. Both sides lied and played on peoples fears. There is always a negative response from the markets when things don't go the way they expect. All I'm saying is for example if Osborne hadn't spent the last 3 months saying how badly our economic outlook would be if we had voted out, he may have got a better response when he tried to reassure the markets this morning with the relative strength of our economy. You can't say one thing one week and something different the next and expect people to still believe you.

I'm confused on one hand people blame Boris & Farage for winning a campaign that 3 months ago looked un-winable and in the next breath they question their leadership skills. If the Brexit campaign was so good it got a result no one thought possible, then maybe they could negotiate a deal with the EU over the next 2 years that no one currently thinks possible. Personally I wouldn't want to see Boris as PM, but if it was a choice between Osborne and Boris I'd vote Boris every time. I suspect in a few years time we will look back and say that things didn't end up as great as the Brexit campaign said it would be, nor as bad as the remain side said.

 

It is. It really is. We are already in recession. Investment has now ceased with a string of deals aborting. Due to the total lack of leadership, market estimates are that actually worst case scenarios predicted by economists are now expectation. We are staring at 5% contraction over two years.

We've now lost our triple A rating, which will basically cost more than the EU contributions. From being little bit unpleasant, this has become the absolute nightmare scenario.

And it transpires, to make matters worse, that the Leave campaign really did lie. Ian Duncan Smith has confessed that £350m per week cannot be redirected to the NHS and Johnson/Hannan have accepted that there cannot be any limits to freedom of movement without causing irreparable damage to our economy.

This is a low point in our history. And it is entirely self-inflicted. It is almost, but not quite, amusing. Economists across the world are saying "I hate to say I told you so".

 

We are not in recession and it is by no means guaranteed that we will go into recession.

The definition of recession is a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. So we will need to wait for 2 complete quarters to pass until we know.

The FTSE 100 closed today higher than it did on the 14th of June and the FTSE 350 closed only 18 points low than it did on the 14th of June. Interestingly this is not mentioned in the media.

A fall in the £ is not all bad news, particularly for exporters. Although people might have a bit more expensive holiday, but is that really a reason to remain in the EU.

Not all economists / experts were pro remain despite what the press may say and now that the result is in some are starting to say after the initial shock to the markets things may well not end up as bad as most thought.

Melvyn King Ex Governor of the bank of England said today "I don't think people should be particularly worried, markets move up, markets move down," "We don't yet know where they will find their level and the whole aspect of volatility is that there is a trial and error process going on before markets discover what the right level of stock markets and exchange rates actually are," "What we need is a bit of calm now, there's no reason for any of us to panic."

People really need to get a better understanding of the facts before they make emotive comments that are not true.

Both sides lied repeatedly about all sorts of things in order to either try and to scare or threaten people to voting a particular way, but the lies were challenged repeatedly in the media and anyone who had a modicum of interest in current affairs would have had the chance to see both sides of the story. The media are doing there best to make matters worse and still predominately supporting the remain side. Anyone would think there was no risks with remaining and everything in the EU was wonderful. I can just imagine the comments that would be coming from pro remain camp if Boris, Farage & Co had lost and stamped their feet, cried foul and whinge as much as those that are on the losing side are.

 

Sorry Canario, but you're wrong I'm afraid:

(1) Last quarter will almost certainly have been a recession and this one definitely will be - we don't know it for definite yet but earlier estimates are that it we are in recession. It's likely to damage GDP by 5% in two years.

(2) You cannot take the FTSE100 price at the point where Leave was expected - it had already priced in the consequences of Leave at that point. It's where the FTSE100 was on expectation of Remain that you take the benchmark. In any event, the FTSE100 is a poor measure as it is mostly internationals - FTSE250 is a better representation of our UK economy.

(3) A low pound is not totally a bad thing, I agree. But it is mostly an incredibly bad thing. It causes our trade deficit to shoot up (remember we export less than we import) and reduces our influence - overnight we have gone from fifth to sixth largest economy and soon will be seventh.

(4) Actually, all reputable economists did predict negatives. There was not a single economist whose methodology wasn't heavily criticised who predicted this as anything other than a bad thing. Unfortunately, the leadership turmoil has meant its worst case scenario at the moment.

King had to say that. They are desperate to calm things. Unfortunately it is already an absolute catastrophe. We are talking fire and brimstone.

What is immediately apparent is that "Project Fear" was not lying at all - it was Project Reality.

The one tiny morsel of hope we have is that Johnson and co. have basically backtracked on everything. They've said the priority is to keep free trade with the EU. That is impossible without free movement, so we are all good (apart from if you voted for Brexit on the basis of stopping free movement). They've now got to actually admit they can't achieve the priority without admitting that free movement is non-negotiable.

Fortunately, that will save us from economic oblivion. Unfortunately, it won't be what the nation voted for. But the loss of any say in the EU while otherwise nothing else changing is a small price to pay for more than half of voters being duped by Vote Leave and Farage.

 

Rob I'm sorry but you are wrong we are not currently in recession. You are also wrong about the effect of a fall in the pound, in fact economists would expect the opposite to what you say would happen if the drop is sustained, a short term drop will make almost no difference. The following link provides more information

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1882/economics/winners-and-losers-from-weak-pound/

Anyway it is lunacy to say that project fear is project reality on the bases of a few days, indeed nothing has happened so far that wasn't expected by both sides. We can't even say that all the volatility in the markets is all down to Brexit, it certainly hasn't helped that the first thing Mr 'We should stay in cause we aren't quitter's" does immediately after the election doesn't go his way is to quit, the poison dwarf shows more interest in her own agenda than she does in the stability of the UK and the Labour party implodes. All these things would have had a negative effect on the markets without the referendum.

We are a million miles away from economic oblivion and there is absolute no way to judge from a few days market activity whether "Project Fear" will become "Project Reality". Things are currently not as bad as "Project Fear" predicted and I fail to see how you know now what 2 years of negotiation with the EU will result in.