Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

As I've tried to explain, but for some reason some people aren't listening, this is called uncertainty. We are in unchartered waters.
Your crystal ball is as good as mine right now. All I can tell you from years of experience is that markets hate uncertainty, especially political uncertainty, more than just about anything else.

Currency and equity wise I would expect high volatility. Markets will be sensitive to every piece of news, good or bad.

Uncertainty brings withdrawal of investment capital. The longer the uncertainty continues the longer the economy will suffer. If some certainty can be brought to the situation in a reasonable period, hopefully the damage won't be too bad. But if not!.....

 

Ran out of salt, just came here to get some.

Yum.

 

A deal will be made, I've no doubt about that. What kind of deal remains to be seen.
The problem for the EU is they cannot allow it to be seen as easy to just walk away from their liittle club with no consequences.

 

The Poles sure are salty. They know what to do if they aren't happy.

 

I'd expect something like Norway has, where they have to pay into the EU and accept Schengen. So basically, they have to accept the EU's rules, but they have no seat at the table to shape those rules.

 

Who does ffs?

The average Joe doesn't want a ****ing revolution, he wants a comfortable lifestyle, be able to pay his mortgage and bills and go on holiday with his family in the summer. That's his prime concern, which is why people with jobs voted heavily to remain.

We're in this mess primarily due to the unemployed and the flag waving, mortgage free, pension drawing, old gibbers, who voted heavily for Leave.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/#more-14746

 

The reason people are not listening because it appears to be a worthless mantra.
The reality is there is only LIKELIHOOD, for any event that has (or has never) occurred.
Certainty is for an event will always / can never occur.

But one particular industry sector always seems to be unable to even vaguely attempt to
quantify, before/during or after the event, in a calm and cogent manner, the likelihoods.
So they resort to acting as a clutch of headless chickens shouting : the uncertainty made us do it.

 

I dont think it will be so harsh as that, but I fear it will be to close to it.

 

Basically the Jeremy Kyle audience won!

 

I try to tell you what I see happening from over 20 yrs of experience of the markets and you dismiss it as a worthless mantra??!

I think this conversation is over, mate!!

 

Although the German Finance Minister did say that we wouldn't be allowed to have a deal similar to the Norway deal (though why we'd want a deal where we lose some of the benefits of being in the EU - ie our opt-outs and a seat at the top table having a lot of influence over the direction of the EU and legislation passed, while still having the same responsibilities that people seemed to be voting against ie free movement of people, commitment to EU legislation, abiding by EU rules ect.

 

Yes but there are degrees of likelihood, with some being more likely than others. So are you saying that it is Likely or Unlikely ?

 

So basically we left the EU, but still need the EU. Only now we only get to access the single market on far less favourable terms.

That deserves a slow

 

From the Economist -

The UK is leaving the EU, but just how quickly can that happen?
This is no short-term relationship where you can unfollow, delete and move on.There's a formal legal process called Article 50 - but it's never been used and when it was created nobody thought anyone would ever want to quit the European Union so it's pretty vague. Some experts believe it could take up to 10 years for the UK to exit the European Union.

What is Article 50?
The Lisbon Treaty became law in December 2009, eight years after European leaders launched a process to make the EU "more democratic, more transparent and more efficient".It's an agreement signed by the heads of state and government of countries that are part of the EU. Part of that law was Article 50. A very basic five-point plan should any country wish to leave the European Union. Six years later and here we are. The UK's exit has to be negotiated with the remaining 27 members of the EU and ultimately approved by them. The overwhelming consensus is that these things do not take two years to negotiate, the rough guide that we are all talking about in the field is around 10 years. Once the UK tells the EU that it is withdrawing under Article 50, it "shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it," the rule says.

Longer than two years?
These negotiations are meant to be completed within two years although many believe it will take much longer. Leading European Union law professor Michael Dougan says he's basically spent his entire professional working life looking at all things EU. "The overwhelming consensus is that these things do not take two years to negotiate, the rough guide that we are all talking about in the field is around 10 years. The treaty said that you have two years within which to make your divorce settlement. But the divorce settlement is completely separate from the framework agreement for your future relations with the EU."

Out of decision-making
Once Article 50 is activated the UK is cut out of EU decision-making at the highest level and there will be no way back unless by unanimous consent from all other member states. "So what we will have is a period of two years to actually reach our divorce, the actual severance of ties between the UK and the EU."
"The main question which will arise is what do we do with the three million or so EU nationals currently living, working, studying in the UK?
"What do they do with the two million or so UK nationals currently living, working, studying in the rest of the EU?"
"The Swiss signed their first framework agreement with the EU back in 1972 and they are still negotiating.
"They have now done well over 100 bilateral treaties to deal with particular issues as they go along, it is hardly comprehensive."
The Lords EU Committee said determining the rights of two million UK nationals living in the EU would be a "complex and daunting" part of exit talks.
It also say trade deals between the EU and non-EU states take between four and nine years on average.

 

That's the point I was making. Nobody knows!! It's all guesswork until some kind of accommodation can be reached with the EU.

You can't assess degrees of likelihood at this stage. It's impossible.

Meanwhile the damage to the economy will continue.

 

Thats been the problem with this referendum.

Idiots trying to make this left wing vs right wing, rich vs poor, etc etc.
It was none of those things, in peoples minds it may have been, and it certainly had an effect on how they voted.
But make no mistake, the remain camp were not the good guys here. As much as remainers like to show their stats with age group votes and educated vs uneducated vote statistics.

The average joe may not have wanted a revolution, but thats what we are getting.
Worldwide we are seeing the rejection of mainstream politics from the populace.
Hence why Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have soared in popularity in the states, because they represent Anti Establishment politics (for better (Sanders) or worse (Trump))

You have gotten yourself so angry over this Tobes, in 5 years or so, you will see that this was most certainly the right move.
To paraphrase the High Sparrow: The people are the many, the politicians are the few. And when the many stop fearing the few........

 

As a Goon, you're probably used to slow hand claps watching that tripe week in week out

 

I agree, but I was addressing that to RDBD as he seems to want to try and gloss over the possibility of it happening at all.
The economy is already taking a hit and the banks are preparing to move some operations out of the UK.