Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

@paragraph 1 - in terms of trade deals I don't think you'd find many people who would disagree it will be easier to get trade deals done outside of the EU. As far as a deal with the EU is concerned there are multiple areas of industry that do business with the U.K. And yes, one of those is the large market for German cars. The German finance minister has said they would want trade to continue as normal with the U.K. If we exit. The deutsche borse and lse announced merger talks in the run-up to the referendum showing that business will find a way to continue as normal. The ECB announced earlier this year an increase in its QE program and negative interest rates which is high risk economic policy attempting to avoid the EU economy going into deflation. The situation in Mediterranean countries is far from stable and more will need to be done in particular to recover Greece and potentially other countries with massive unemployment and struggling economies. The EU economy is fragile, and the governments of the EU will want to do what is in there best interests. What is in there best interests is for there not to be a shock to trading levels, not to take hits to particular industries and to have a deal in place with the U.K. as soon as possible. They will not cut off there nose to spite there face.

In terms of trading more with China, I think the argument is actually that we will trade more with the rest of the world full stop. By being a member of the Eu we are restricted in how we do trade with the rest of the world and free from those restraints we could pursue our own trade deals and more freely interact with the global community. This doesn't assume we will somehow stop trading with the EU and replace them with another part of the world but rather embrace the global age rather than put all our eggs in one basket.

@paragraph 2 - while I don't think pulling out will magically mean we manufacture more I would in general, whether we pull out or not, encourage the country to diversify its economy more by attempting to increase the level of manufacturing that occurs within the UK. Unfortunately multiple companies have been given loans by the Eu to move manufacturing away from the UK. Either way this wouldn't be a main point of my argument.

@paragraph 3 - there is potential for head offices to be moved, or as shown by the deutsche borse and lse, mergers will take place to allow business to continue across borders regardless of us being in the EU or not.

@paragraph 4 - you are correct that no-one knows what will happen as it hasn't been done before, but we can make educated guesses about a variety of areas both positive and negative. And those guesses could of course all end up being wrong! That's often the way with economics. Europe however will not make life as hard as possible for us, they may want the split to be perceived as difficult but will ultimately want to continue a strong relationship with the U.K. The idea of cramming asylum seekers into the tunnel is just scaremongering nonsense.

 

It really matters little what the German finance minister thinks. European leaders will not make things easy for the UK. If for no other reason than to show others that leaving has consequences. If they just carried on like nothing had happened others may be tempted to try to leave, believing that nothing would change trade wise.

The fact also remains that we need Europe far more than they need us!...

 

Did you really just write a dozen paragraphs, state in the first one that you vote Ukip, then expect anyone to read the rest of it?

 

Bit difficult to take seriously after that, isn't it?..

 

Obviously it does matter what the finance minister of one of the key EU players thinks. European leaders, like I said previously, may want it to be perceived as difficult for us to get what we want, they will almost certainly insist on some level of compromise to show you can't have your cake and eat it, this will most likely be in regard to free movement of labour. However they will do a deal with the U.K. And it wouldn't surprise me if it was one that allowed continued access to the common market. It is in there best interest.

We benefit from trading with Europe and it is a large chunk of the trade we do for sure, but the EU are also in a precarious financial situation and will not want to damage trade for the sake of it. It isn't about who needs who more, it's about a mutually beneficial deal being put in place.

 

Stopped reading after this clanger

 

So no answers to the actual points raised then? I've voted UKIP on multiple occasions with the desired outcome being the UK pulling out of the EU or at the least getting a referendum on EU membership. We now have that referendum so clearly it worked.

If you are so closed minded that the mere mention of a political party causes you to reject the content of a post then you aren't the kind of person I have any interest of engaging with

 

I stopped at that point too.

 

I think most of you should vote 'not sure'.

Fools

 

Feel free to argue against the point. Outside of the Eu we would be negotiating trade deals with the interests of two parties being taken into account, whilst within the EU the deal must work to the benefit of all member states. It is simple to see why it takes so much longer for deals to be made when there are so many more interested parties. Examples of this in action are the speed at which countries outside of the Eu manage to conclude trade negotiations, including both Norway and Switzerland who have agreements in place with the Eu. Examples of deals the EU has taken ridiculous time on are widespread including the almost ten years they have tried and failed to negotiate a deal with India that the UK has pushed for.

The concept that trade deals will be concluded more efficiently outside the EU is the logical one and has plenty of evidence to support the position. Arguing whether we would get deals as good negotiating as the fifth largest economy in the world or as part of the larger EU trade block is a different question and the one I think you are confusing my statement with.

 

Shows your lack of understanding of the point then

 

Not if you read the reasons why I've voted UKIP rather than make the assumptions that everyone here clearly does. Typical narrow minded uk party politics.

 

The EU doesn't need us to improve their trade figures. We represent a miniscule amount of their total global trade. As I say, we need them far more than they need us.

People like Juncker have already inferred that the UK will get no easy deals. As I've said, it cannot be seen to be so easy to just walk away from the EU. If for no other reason, they will make life difficult for us. Count on it!

It will be a long - at least 2yrs - and messy 'divorce' During all that time uncertainty will reign, and hang over the UK economy like a giant cloud. Investors hate uncertainty more than anything. As such, investment in the UK would shrink significantly until the 'divorce,' was finalized. In that time untold damage may well be done to the economy. Damage it may never recover from fully.

And, all for what? A bunch of promises from Tosser Gove, Barmy Boris, and Facist Farage that things will 'get better' all with absolutely no evidence to back those claims up.

I do t think so, somehow!...

 

There ARE no reasons that I would ever accept for voting for that bunch of Neo fascists!...

 

Ive already said more than once that any deal will have to be perceived to be difficult for us to reach, that doesn't mean a deal won't be done. It will take a couple of years but current rules and legislation for a couple of years are protected and would continue. I've already said I agree about how uncertainty will effect things in the short term, it was all part of my original long post.

 

That's fine, that's what democracy is, a choice of who to vote for. Personally I have a serious dislike for the labour/Tory stronghold on the country and would find it difficult to vote for either party but did feel my vote could form part of a pressure to create a change that I thought would be good for the country. The pressure from UKIP gaining votes has lead to a referendum and as such I feel vindicated in my support for a party that obviously has a less desirable element who have views I don't share.

 

Think the way the poll heres going will be about right in the end, 60-40 to stay in.

 

That's about where I've thought things will end up from the moment the referendum was announced tbh and despite the growing support for the leave campaign I'm pretty sure the country will vote to remain.

 

The short term effects will be brutal! That may well stretch into the medium term. Given that the UK economy has just about dragged itself out of the worst recession since WW2, there's little doubt that Brexit would plunge it straight back into recession. It's a pointless risk to take for no guaranteed benefits. Only guaranteed hardship. As the Washington Post called it 'economic suicide'

Trade deals with Europe will be what we can get. They hold all the cards as we need them far more.

 

The deals available for a trading group of 500 million people will be better than the deals for a trading group of 65 million. It also simpler for the non EU countries to make one deal with the EU rather than 28 separate deals with the member nations