Too many unknowns to vote Brexit, it genuinely is a leap into the dark, better the devil you know I say.
Immigration seems to be the most important thing for many, and has certainly been used to whip up fears, in order to get a Leave vote. I don't want Turkey to join the EU, but their being eligible to do so, is estimated to be up to two decades away, if they continue progressing as they are now. Norway and Switzerland aren't full members of the EU, but to get the best trade deals, they have had to sign up to freedom of movement, something we may have to do, if we leave, so border controls remain as they are. Freedom of movement does need to be looked at, but for me, it isn't just immigration that is putting so much stress on housing, the NHS and schools etc. It's under investment in those areas.
The recent administrations have repeatedly pledged to get tough on immigration but have made no real discernible effort with those coming into the country from outside the EU (which is the larger migration flow), so I don't know what people think the government will do with EU nations if we do leave. Probably much of the same. The report from the start of 2015 from the migration observatory was that there were 3m EU-born folk in this country, of which there are around 70m people living here at current, from what I remember. If immigration is an issue, and I can understand why to some it is, I don't think it's all to be laid at the EU's door and we should look a bit closer to home. 'We'd like to but the big, bad nasty EU is stopping us' is just an easy get-out for politicians without the back bone to deliver on what people are expecting.
I very much doubt that Cyprus will ever allow Turkey into the EU. FWIW, I'm voting Remain. I wouldn't trust Farage and Gove to safeguard the European Working Time directive. Frankly, I wouldn't trust Farage and Gove to grill a slice of toast. I'll cede that the EU is need of reform, but it's far easier to negotiate solutions from within the EU than outside.
Immigration is an issue (The population increasing by 300,000 each year has to contribute to a lot of problems) but I don't see it as the major issue. I will mention one thing on the subject, mainly because it almost never gets talked about when people discuss immigration, and that's the effect on the countries people leave to come here. Poland is the main example and is unquestionably suffering from "brain drain". Polish employers struggle to recruit in many areas and the population of the country may actually be falling because so many (mainly younger) people are leaving. The government there is desperately trying to encourage people to have children in an attempt to address the problem but there are serious questions about how their social security system could cope with an unbalanced, ageing population. Whatever the result, it's something that should be looked at by the EU but they seem adamant they won't even consider changing free movement. On risk, it's not quite as simple as risk vs familiarity. Yes, in the short term Leave is the bigger risk but for me this is a long term decision and in the medium to long term the whole EU project is an unknown. Even in the short term there's the question of what happens if Greece has to leave the Euro? Further down the line what happens when six other, generally less wealthy, countries join the Euro in the next 5-10 years? What happens to EU countries that don't use the Euro if (when?) the Eurozone has to become a single state?
Interesting Tom,do you think anything will change if we vote out?apart from alot of hot air I've heard nothing to convince me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388 Think this was posted before but for anyone unsure about statements being put out there here is the BBC's reality check which tells you how true they are. Lots of subjects covered if you scroll down. At least it's not biased. I didn't realise for instance that if the UK votes to come out then Gibraltar has to as well.
I don't know for sure but my opinion is that if we stay in the EU nothing will change and I don't want the EU to have the power to make decisions that affect this country any more. I've always hated this.
I find any thoughts of leaving the EU a giant leap into the unknown. I don't know how anyone can contemplate it. People are playing with their livelihoods as if it is a bet on a horse race. Plus, the vast majority are handing over power to a Conservative right-wing ideal.
Not even a close-run thing according to all the bookies on Oddschecker. You can get between 13/5 and 3/1 on Leave, whereas Remain is between 2/7 and 2/9.
Any of you thinking of voting Out should watch this. He is an expert in the field. Video is 23 minutes long, but then effects of this vote will be with us for the rest of our lives. Think of it as an investment.
