I knew the Belgium match hadn't gone the way the Irish wanted when I couldn't see a single Irish fan in central London acting like somebody crossbred Zebedee and Jacksepticeye - but I didn't realise it had gone that badly until I got home.
Hope for us yet, hbic : http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36569603 And, Daniel Ronaldo, or Christiano Sturridge ... ?? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36569603
It all depends on the organisation and strategy of policing at the tournament. I've no love for Putin, but at the same time I've no doubt that if the president-cum-dictator clicks his fingers at the Russian police, law and order will be established instantly. The French police are sadly second only to the Belgians in their pathological incompetence, in-fighting, lack of cohesive strategy and being perplexedly reactive when a proactive approach seems far wiser.
The qualification math of this tournament is interesting. With four of six third place teams qualifying, Albania just established the cusp with three points and a minus two GD. I think they’ll be the last qualifier or the first non-qualifier, but you never know. Northern Ireland would love not to play their last game, since with three points and a GD of 1, they’d be certain to qualify. Even a two goal loss, I think, would be good enough. Iceland and Portugal are cinches to make it with draws, all but certain to go home with losses. Wales and Slovakia should make it through with one goal losses. The questions are whether there will be more than four third place teams with three points, and if any will end up with a GD as low as -2 to match Albania. If Ireland, Sweden, and the Czech republic all don’t win, they’re out and Albania is in, except perhaps if Turkey wins by two goals or more...but there are other ways for Albania to qualify. I guess sports journalism is a haven for the math-challenged. The Guardian claim England need more points to be certain of qualification. They don’t. Four points will be plenty.
Reports are saying Kane, Alli, Walker and Rose will all be rested against Slovakia. Good. That means Skrtel will rule out Sturridge until February.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36514116 Looking at the Slovakia yellow cards situation, there is a certain logic in trying to rest players. But this is England. There is also the chance that any such line-up will lose to Slovakia playing cleanly.
Given our performances in the opening 2 games, I understand the need for changes but if the rumour about 6 changes is true, I don't get the logic at all. It's clear we need to make some adjustments but no way are we in a position where we're good enough to rest players. Nor should Rooney, in particular, be in need of a rest, he had 2 months out with injury earlier this year, he should be fresh as a daisy. We should qualify no matter what but we should be looking to finish this last group game with some form that we can take into the later rounds.
I heard that I heard that from several sources but if the top four third place teams qualify and there are more than four groups, then how can all of the group winners play a third place team?
They can't: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_knockout_phase#Bracket England are in a group whose winner would play a 3rd place team, though.
True. I don't know whether Wales are planning on resting anyone but if they don't I can see them comfortably picking off Russia, who absolutely have to win. Any idea which group winner we play if we finish second? Edit: Just saw PNP's link. Looks like we'd play runner up from group F, which could be any of them at this stage. Hungary, Iceland, Portugal or Austria. I think that's a poor group so I wouldn't be too bothered about playing any of them in the next round.
Group winners (GW) and 3rd places (3P) should be ranked by pts and GD. Top 4 of GW are then drawn against top 4 of 3P. Most equitable format IMHO, and a bit more incentive than merely finishing top.
Finishing second has us in the same half of the draw as Germany, France and Italy (probably, depending on this week's game). If we win the group we really only Spain and Belgium to worry about (again probably, and almost certainly enough to finish us in the qtr finals)
It is still theoretically possible for 5 groups to have a third place finisher with 4 points and all the others to have a better goal difference than England. Extremely unlikely though.
Good point again. I'd argue that on watching the tournament so far, Spain are the ones to fear most. Germany look a long way off the pace, Italy are ageing and tired whilst France have a worse defence than us(with an incredible 'keeper, admittedly ).
Since this is an 'all or nothing' tournament (in that coming second or worse doesn't really have anything to be said for it), I don't think we should worry about which half of the draw we finish in so it makes sense to rest some players now that qualification is all but assured.
Winner would play 3rd in Group A or C or D - so Albania , then possibly (probably) Norn Iron or Czech Rep.
