Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

No it's not aimed at you. If people choose not to vote for their government they have absolutely no credibility in claiming to want greater democratic power for their own country. I honestly can't see how you can argue against that. If a person hasn't voted they've already given up their right to have a say in the democratic power in their own country. To then start taking potshots at some far off entity they probably know even less about, seems ridiculous to me.

I need to correct my figures. Only 25% voted for our "majority" government which was my original point, but actually roughly 66% voted overall. I think a combination of "can't be arsed" as well as an indifference (or satisfaction) with the status quo are usually the main reasons why the vast majority of those who don't vote, don't vote. There's a good 35% who fit within that category.

 

Sorry fella, but I'm not hearing any coherent argument why leaving the EU will provide the UK with better trading deals. Yes deals are done outside of trading block agreements, but they are not as favourable as being a part of those block agreements. That's the whole point really.

As for the economists projections, basically every respected economic organisation is saying that the UK economy will take a hammering if we leave the EU. Ignoring all of them on the basis that it's just speculation is akin to an Ostrich burying its head in the sand.

 

So the BBC debate with Cameron this evening ended up being a single issue discussion about immigration.

Surprise!

 

I'll be honest, it's at times like this you want teflon Tony as Prime Minister. I didn't watch, but I expect Cameron came across lacking any real conviction or drive.

 

Such as? As i have said that is the basis of the wealth of those two economies. Their wealth doesn't come from anywhere else. Certainly no significant part of it, anyway.

 

The EU rules state that they have to have agreements with Countries that leave the EU, and the World Trade Organisation rules effectively guarantees the trade continues. The EU sells about £50billion worth of goods to us, so I can't see them wanting that to end. Norway and Switzerland trade more with the EU than we do, so membership isn't essential. We do more trade with other Countries than we do with the EU.

We're the number one choice for foreign investment, all nothing to do with the EU.

I haven't ignored the predictions, I said earlier that I feel their will be a dip in the economy. I based that on (amongst other things) looking at a variety of predictions, and to some extent, plumping for the mid range rather than ones that predict meltdown, or limited change. The extreme ones seemed to have too many assumptions that were extremely debatable.

 

Great great post and deserves to be on here

This pretty much sums up everything that has driven me to stay in the EU.

 

On the discussion of trade deals I'll add a couple of points:

1) we don't know that there will be tariffs added to our trade with the EU if we leave and if there are at what level they will be set and as such what impact it will have on levels of trade. For example it is quite possible that a deal could be done with no tariffs but it would require us most likely to compromise in other areas. It is not a pre-determined situation, it is a deal that will need to be done. It is in the best interests of the EU economy as a whole and more specifically certain countries and particular industries to not have tariffs or at the very least have very low tariffs implemented to continue trade as close to normal as possible with the U.K. The EU economy is currently very fragile having implemented risky economic policy to try and stabilise and avoid deflation, they will not want to take a big hit in trade levels with the U.K. Who would become the EUs single largest trade partner upon pulling out. What deal is done I couldn't tell you as so many different factors will come into play and it will depend where both sides are willing to compromise but the threat of tarriffs putting off trade is not a forgone conclusion as some seem to think.

2) outside of the EU it will be far easier to get trade deals completed. Currently deals need to work in favour of every single eu country with each able to slow and stop the process when it suits them, on our own we only need to satisfy our own criteria for each trade deal. Countries like Norway have done more trade deals than the EU in the same amount of time due to it being easier to complete deals as an individual rather than as a diverse collective with differing interests. As an example the UK wants a trade deal in place with India but almost 10 years on this deal has completely halted as other sections of the EU have held it up. The EU is very slow to complete trade deals, there is no doubt that we would be more efficient in our completion of trade deals round the world outside of the EU. However of course I accept the negotiating power of the larger EU market to push for strong deals, but let's not forget we are the fifth largest economy in the world and still hold strong negotiating power nonetheless.

The trade discussion is an interesting one and goes far deeper than this idea that the EU is the only way to get a good deal with anyone round the world. The EU economy is also very fragile and if you look into it there are all sorts of difficulties that are on the horizon for the EU, ECB and several member states,

 

Regarding the trading agreements with the EU, we don't do more trade with other countries, our biggest export market is within the EU. If we leave the EU and we want to continue to trade, then we have to pay a tariff to do so. Also the goods we buy from the EU are tied into the deal that we have being a member state. If we leave and we want to import, then we have to pay a tariff and risk less favourable deals anyway. Membership isn't essential, it just costs less overall. Regarding the rest of the world, the Leave campaign say we can forge our own deals with the US, China and Asian markets, but we already trade with them as part of the EU with the benefit that being a part of that trading block brings. These international markets prefer to deal that way, if we leave the EU, we are basically cutting ourselves off from the market on a whim that we can forge a better deal, when these markets are already telling us that they want to deal as part of a trading block.

Regarding the predictions, it's not just a 'feeling' that there will be a dip, the markets are already losing ground on the threat of the UK leaving. The financial markets are notoriously 'conservative' in as much that they like stability and being able to forecast trends. If we leave the EU, the markets will take a nosedive, that's not me saying that, it's the World bank, the IFS, Bank of England etc. If they thought the UK would be financially better off by leaving, they would say so. It's not in their interest to skew the arguments, they deal in the language of finance and that is the way that markets work.

I'm still interested to know how you think the UK will be able to forge better deals with the EU by being outside of it and how the UK can forge better deals with the US and Asian markets by being outside of the trading block agreements, when the economic forecasts all point to the opposite being true ?

 

I look at it very simplistically. A trade deal when you have something to offer means the ball's in your court. A trade deal where you have a need for supply means the other guy calls the shots. We are very much the latter case. Hence why it makes sense the clout of the EU keeps our pricing lower than if we were to try and negotiate on our own.

 

The percentages in service industries etc are very similar to the situation in Switzerland.

 

We will get trade deals if we need them. The rules dictate that. As someone else says further up, it's simpler to make a deal with less 'interested' parties wanting their own bits including.

There are plenty of economists predicting doom and gloom for the EU, so any predictions of decline have to be compared to that. I'd argue we're better placed to avoid the deeper effects of a recession, if we're free to make arrangements that suit us, and not supplementing other struggling economies.

 

I ain't confused about what you said ... I just do not agree.
You said "Cheap labour drags down everyones wages and to some degree rights, so more control on borders should create more opportunities."
I said that immigration is not what is destroying my pension and pay.
By saying immigration needs to be more controlled (so this situation can improve ) is blaming immigration for the problem. I am not calling you anti immigrant or a racist etc. I just disagree with your logic.
Our government gives us a **** pay rise but at the same time has raised our NI contributions ... in my case by over £45 a month...when you only take home £1000 a month that is a huge increase. That has nothing to do with the EU. This Government (as previous ones did) will continue to bleed us dry while minimising taxes to the rich and big businesses whether or not we are in the EU.
Like I said, I have sympathy for the RMT unions views about why we should leave but am of the opinion that staying is the least worse thing to do. Think we are going round in circles so I sill leave it alone now.
Night all

 

We will get deals, but they won't be as favourable to us as they are now. It might be simpler and quicker to get deals, but that won't make them better.

If the EU goes into recession then the UK will be hit by that regardless of whether we are in or out. Again the international trade agreements we make will not be as favourable as our trading block agreements, so we can't just fall back on 'our own deals' to bail us out. The biggest issue though would be that our own economy is predicted to take a 6% GDP downturn by leaving the EU, which is basically guaranteeing recession for the UK.

 

I'm not blaming immigration for the problem. That's clear as I've suggested that if it was changed to one similar to the Australian system, there could well be more immigration than there is at present. I'm blaming the system of immigration, that's not the same argument.

Cheaper labour drives down wages, and has a knock on effect up the ladder and results in less tax collected and money circulating in the economy. That needs to be made up somehow.

 

There's about a 9-10% difference, but you can't look at it in isolation. Switzerland is the 18th largest importer in the world, the UK is the 5th largest! That's where the difference (and our biggest problems) lies.

 

The more recent predictions from such as the IMF are far less than the 6% you quote, but if the EU's liable to go into a recession anyway, it implies their system isn't as good as those outside the EU that are more robust. I'd say that makes them a better model to follow.

 

9 to 10% difference in what? Service industry and farming are pretty similar. I'd have to check to see the others.

 

Could try making sure that corporation tax is paid at the correct level. The last count was £180bn per year missing from the UK exchequer.

 

I think it's a difference of 71% and 79% but that was a minor point. It's the import figures that sets us apart from Switzerland, and would be the biggest thing to consider when looking at any trade agreements. That's what will **** us imo.