How do you explain the 14% swing from In to Out then in the two/three weeks since immigration figures were published and the whole agenda of the campaign has moved from the economy to immigration?
Yeah, that only lasted @ 600 years and during that time it was far better to be one of the primitive tribes and cultures outside of it. Not.
Spot on Trebs. Was in conversation this week with my eldest sister in Liverpool. She's a Mail reader/believer, I'm afraid. She is not a stupid woman though, by any stretch of the imagination. After we'd destroyed the £350m malarkey, agreed that immigration wouldn't actually come down if we leave the EU (certainly not the non-EU African/Afghan/Syrian refugees/migrants supposedly camped on the north shores of France trying to get here), the conversation turned to 'sovereignty'. It tell you, she made a majestic case of representation, distance and culture from the seat of power and so forth that I barely had the heart to remind her that she was utterly against all those points two years ago in the Scottish referendum. But I did. I'm not her favourite brother, even though I am the only brother she has.
I call it the Wayne and Waynetta vote: Owen Jones is far politer than me: http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ss-britain-brexity-betrayed-labour-vote-leave
I find it hilarious still that people use the eu will collapse in 10 years arguement. If people think leaving will insulate us from it.... eh no. Market collapse is bad for us By extension btw.... if we leave and go into recession... we might be in one already the way things are going.... we will have a second recession. It's like knowing you are on lose ground on the side of a cliff but jumping up and down cos you can... Or.... like a drunknown english lout screaming where is isis in Marseilles.
Starting with the estimates that leaving would be a net loss to the UK economy, one analysis often cited is from researchers at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in 2004. They found an exit from the EU would permanently reduce UK GDP by 2.25%, mainly because of lower foreign direct investment. That estimate is now old and, as the thinktank’s current head, Jonathan Portes, has pointed out, the world economy has changed considerably in the past decade. Another analysis by economists at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), part of the London School of Economics, calculated the UK could suffer income falls of between 6.3% to 9.5% of GDP, similar to the loss resulting from the global financial crisis of 2008-09. That is under the researchers’ pessimistic scenario, in which the UK is not able to negotiate favourable trade terms. Under an optimistic scenario, in which the UK continues to have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU, losses would be 2.2% of GDP. http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-britain-left-eu-european-union-referendum-uk
All I can say is there are clear identifiable jobs supporting whole eu markets in uk and if that whole eu market can be managed out of a lower tax base with no tariffs then they will move in a flat second. The reality is you can't expect eueopean hq of a company to stay in uk can you.
The main reason that the Leave could win is that the labour vote is changing and not engaged. Corbyn as leader of the party is at best equivocal and his support for the EU appears so lukewarm. If labour don't turn up to vote, the leave will win. I think labour will reap a whirlwind from appeasing the ukip vote. By staying quiet and refusing to counteract the various immigration issues across the country, they are being replaced in the minds of many voters across the country by UKIP as the opposition to the tories. This is so incredibly balanced. I think it is genuinely 50-50. If the polls show 50-50 24 hrs before the referendum, the remain will win. History and precedents suggest that the undecideds so late to the voting will inevitably go for the status quo. So remain has an inbuilt advantage of a couple of points at least. As an aside, the long term consequences of a Brexit on Europe will be quite extensive. More countries going for referendums and probably other countries leaving and leading to the disintegration of a union which has helped stability in the continent for decades.
The biggest danger that Brexit will win is all the older people, who tend to vote more than youngsters, will vote out because "things were better in the old days". Apathy from the younger generation could carry it for Brexit.
Yet the ones to suffer more from the long term consequences of a bad decision will be the young ones. I just watched a programme on my local BBC on it. We had a group of >70 yr old pensioners from Chelmsford saying that they want to have their old England back. Too many foreigners, the English culture is being destroyed and that they want the same culture as when they grew up. The genteel afternoon tea with its respect for traditions and social rank (!). I despair. AND: look at this board, 23 in and 23 out. and 4 undecided. Reflective of the whole population
I disagree, sadly. As with the Scots referendum, there will be @ 10% who, right up till the final day, haven't made their mind up. Usually, if they vote at all, those people vote for caution and stability (as with the General Election too). The difference this time though is that all the media, overwhelmingly the right-wing press and even the 'impartial' BBC were on the side of the status quo: this time it's the reverse, and the BBC is over-doing the 'Look, aren't we impartial' stuff as well. Lord Ashcroft, whose analysis of the polling was one of the few, apart from the BBC exit polls, to get the last two GE's and the Scotland Referendum right, said the tipping point towards Leave was passed last weekend and I believe he's right - Remain need a 10% buffer going into the last two days as the last minute undecideds will vote Out. I was hoping the younger generation might swing it for Remain, and that Brexit had peaked with all the people who are going to vote for them already declared, so to speak. I know anecdotally, from friends, family and workmates, that is moonshine - those that haven't made up their minds yet are really, after years of EU-bashing from all angles, still hanging on for some good reason to vote Remain, otherwise it's Out. I'm beginning, especially over immigration, to see why: I think the Brexit argument is preposterous, don't get me wrong, over immigration, but people feel that even if it is they can still hold our elected representatives accountable to the next election, whereas the EU is unresponsive. Don't think Labour (especially Corbyn) will make any difference now. Immigration has trumped the economy, and it'll be a Pyrrhic victory when our economy collapses and the EU disintegrates within the next decade, if you ask me. Just wondering, as our ageing population of Baby Boomers such as myself retire and outnumber the working population within the next 25 years where the 'cheap' carers are going to come from for us. We could really be cutting our noses off in this act of defiance against 'Them', as Owen Jones rightly framed the mindset of the Wayne and Waynetta vote on Brexit.
I know it's just a snapshot (or two), but let me repeat what I said about my daughter's circle of friends and fellow students in Teeside further up the thread: don't think they're coming to save Remain, they're not. Some (most) haven't bothered to register, a lot won't vote because they don't understand it, and some thickos even think an NHS branded Leave leaflet (that's surely illegal?) is actually from the NHS urging them to vote Out. My niece in the sixth-form at Liverpool is a bit more hopefully: she turned 18 two weeks ago and has alrady voted, and most of her sixth form have done the same. She reckons they're four fifths Remain. Small hope, I suppose.
the demographic arguement for immigration of the type we have had from the EU i.e. young people of child bearing age is one positive that remain have not used i assume because they don't want to talk about immigration as their focus groups tell them it is a negative yet it is one obvious benefit as otherwise there will be 1 person of working age for every retiree. as an aside the theory that Merkels invite , that has to some extent destroyed the EU, to Afghan and Syrian ayslum seekers just to fill the problem of their declining birth rate which if continues would lead to a decline in the German population is an interesting one if likely impossible to prove
This. Clearly this is not like the Scottish independence referendum In terms of complexity this one dwarfs the Scottish one. There is so much to take in terms of true figures, facts, sensible predictions, adverse consequences, mitigating factors , the most vulnerable. A recent survey showed that the vast majority of the population were wrong about some key basic facts about the EU. So when they are ignorant and cannot weigh the pros and cons properly, is it a surprise that they decide to go with their gut feelings? In this case, a simplistic view on immigration. And go with the newspapers and their editors and owners. Who constantly spout their untrue statistics and focusing on pro-leave stories and completely ignoring pro-remain ones. On the day the health select committee chairman Sarah Woollaston defected to the remain side, papers like the Daily Mail, telegraph and the times put the story of John Nott, an 80 year old Tory nobody and well known sceptic and leave supporter, deciding to stop paying his sub to the Tory Party. They either ignored the Wollaston story or relegated to a small paragraph. Without going into the detail, we have On the remain side: the unions, the vast majority of business, the vast majority of economists, the vast majority of security experts, the vast majority of health care organisations, the universities, the vast majority of Labour Party, of the lib dems, some Tories. On the leave side: a large part of the Tories, the large majority of newspapers and the media, UKIP, some Thatcherite economists, a few labour MPs. If it is confusing and the issue is too boring, complicated, unengaging and I was still undecided, I would use my common sense to decide which side I would trust.
Corbyn should be strung up by his party. How the funk he got the job ahead of a decent decent man I do not know. He's a wannabe comminist... his little fantasy will end the labour party imo A new socialist Democrat type party will have to rise as the days of the common man, working class, union politics is long since dead. Did labour not realise they only got in via Blair as he was the anthisis of that old politics. Pity he was as bad as any tory with no true beliefs.
Interesting article in the Telegraph (!) Voting for Brexit but also fully aware of the financial trauma that it would entail. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/
Please, please my friends in Liverpool, vote to REMAIN. Forget the rubbish spouted by Cameron, just think of a future where Human Rights are gradually whittled away, where the maximum working week is slowly whittled away, where the minimum wage becomes defunct. Where London becomes an increasing centre of gravity if Bullshit Johnson becomes PM and to hell with improving the regions. It is strange that Cornwall gets more back from the EU than it contributes but its population is heavily baking Brexit!! I do not get it. I want to see a Europe where British people can travel freely in search of jobs, where British people can travel and spend money with getting ripped of by the exchange rate (yes I would love the UK to join the euro), where our young can go to university anywhere in Europe without paying fortunes to begin with. I believe the greatest Prime Minister (Harold Wilson and an MP for Huyton) in my lifetime, had those aspirations
For some like me, I am IN despite Cameron not because of him. I recognise the risks of immigration and the pressures on communities and services (but what about the workforce needed to sustain an ageing population?) and I recognise the loss of some sovereignty. But I am willing to trade those against the bigger picture of having a stable Europe, access to a huge market, economic stability instead of uncertainty. Make no mistake, a Brexit ultimately means the future dissolution of the EU. In the bigger picture, this would be a tragedy.
It would need an Istanbul to turn this now: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls My prediction is 60/40 Brexit on the day. Splendid article in there too by Polly Toynbee as to why Remain are losing that totally reflects my own experiences talking to some workmates, neighbours and family. Utterly pointless now demolishing the £350m, NHS 'branded' lie - they know, even the thickest of them, but it's a two-fingered response to what they call 'Project Fear'. Well Project Fear is coming to dry hump them with a vengeance over the next year, and I wonder whether Boris Pollard and Gove-adder will balance the books with huge tax rises or austerity on stilts? Except that I don't. Net result in five years time? There'll still be as many non-white faces about (let's be honest, this is what it's all about) which will be handy for Nigel and the far right when the poverty bites - the scapegoats will be easily identifiable. And please, though I'll be there myself in just over a decade, make the bastard old ****s suffer by cutting their triple-locked pensions; they voted for this spitefest and they deserve some spite back.
