I was given a tip last night for a Johnston runner at musselburgh, Regal Monarch 3:25. "Wins with plenty in hand" so i was told. Tips I get especially for Scottish courses are usually decent. Personally I think its a tricky race, a few unexposed and unknown ones but willing to trust the source of the tip.
Ive been against Postponed because he won a poor King George but he looks an improved horse now, I rate Duramente very highly and he absolutely destroyed him in Dubai. I wouldnt take Founds win over Golden Horn seriously, I thought Golden Horn was one of the lays of the meeting at the Breeders Cup and he finished half a length in front of Big Blue Kitten and Slumber in a strangely run race, decent animals in their own right but at 7yo I wouldnt expect them to be anywhere near Golden Horn. Postponed was a short head behind Fascinating Rock in the Tattersalls last year, won by Al Kazeem with The Grey Gatsby in 4th, Fascinating Rock has beaten Found comfortably on a few occasions now in Group 1s. Hes a proper Group 1 horse and Founds recent 1 1/2L beatings of Success Days dont look good enough, she has consistently found one too good in Group 1s and it could be another 2 for her today.
How can you not take that form seriously. She would have got very close to him in the arc last year if she had any luck. I personally dont fancy her today as the ground is against her. But I cant understand how anyone could simply not take form seriously against a derby winner. Laughable lad. Simiply Laughable lad.
I said why I couldnt take the form seriously, it was a strange race and 2 7yos finished half a length behind them. She was beaten 5L in the Arc, how close would she have got? The top horses get out of trouble in the Arc imo. Its a 1m4 small field at Epsom on dodgy ground, can see why some thinking she looks the value, but for me Postponed is the better horse.
5 lenghts behind him aint bad considering she finished on the bridle. Clearly she would have got pretty close considering she beat him next time out.
I have never known a Derby in which I have been unable to form a view with at least a slight expectation of outcome. I have placed a small ew on Massatt simply as it felt wrong not having a bet on the Derby. Apparently however after looking down the Derby field Marcus Treggoning was seen pacing around speaking to himself about if only he had another Sir Percy for this year.
but clearly those 2 7yos would have been out with the washing in the Arc, so what form would you rather believe?
Found was never given a chance to win the Arc, whether you say it was the way the race panned out, a dogs dinner of a ride or possibly both. In contrast Dettori won the race on Golden Horn by nicking it off from the front. He basically stole an Arc. Credit to Dettori it really was a terrific ride, ride of the Flat season without doubt. Hard to say there's much between the two, three times they met, only two of which both had clear runs and the score was 1-1 between them. Be very surprised should she not go very well today, the grounds against her and could well beat her but at the prices, 4/1 Found this morning was unquestionably the 'class bet, capital C'. There's not a hope in hell does Postponed have her gears, it's just whether the ground blunts her superior speed and hopefully Moore doesn't get her beat again.
Postponed has run in 3 Group 1s, won 2. Found has run in 9 Group 1s and won 2, one of them a 2yo race and the other the Arc afterthought which Arc winners have a horrendous record in.
Don't get me wrong the Arc is obviously miles ahead form wise. But to sujest the Breeder Cup form, against a Derby and Arc winner, should not be taken seriously is -----.
I am sure that if Postponed wins the Coronation Cup eased down there will be somebody on here to state that Even money was a steal but I do not see him as anything like a racing certainty with two quality fillies in the race, one of them a Classic winner. So I shall just be watching Epsom. Last week’s tip horse Boater turns out again at Musselburgh but if quick ground was its undoing on the Westwood, why is it going to get back my losses today? I am going with Mark Johnston’s horse in the Edinburgh Cup (3:25). Winning a modest four-runner affair by five lengths last time does advertise REGAL MONARCH’s well being but little else. His previous win was on soft ground but he is on a 12lb higher mark. This three-year-old could be another one of those Kingsley House horses that thrives on racing so I think that he can give weight to the lightly-raced Southern raiders stepping up in trip, Yangtze and St Michel. In the Musselburgh 4:00, I fancy Kevin Ryan’s SWIFT APPROVAL to continue in his winning ways despite the substantial hike in his rating that his two victories this year has caused. He is 12lb higher than his course and distance win first time out – plus that was on soft ground – but both wins have been off topweight and I think that he can give his main rivals Mystic Miraaj (form in non-pro races) and Bahama Moon (wants cut in ground) a beating but the one that I am most bothered about is Alejandro (although he has not won since 2014).
Golden Horn ran in 6 and won 4, hes rated 10 pounds superior to Found for a reason, she isnt in the same bracket.
Harzand and Idaho are my two picks for the Derby, 16/1(early prices). Harzand is the stand out horse when looking for one that handles ease in the ground. His win in the Ballysax was rather impressive, drawing clear with Idaho. What finished in behind may not have been a great yardstick but obe could possible say simular for those that came out of the English trials. Idaho is a bit of a shot in the dark. He was beaten by Harzand at Leopardstown and has to go some to over come that. He caught the eye when finishing third to Moonlight Magic last time. He ran four wide off the last bend and closed all the way to the line. He is one of the few horses in the race who will definitely get trip. With both these horses I can only hope they get a nice run round and hope they handle this stupid track.
