Sorry to drag this one up from the dirt but the official handicapper has given his thoughts - here. Nathaniel is now rated 128 and Workforce has been dropped by 2lbs to 126, the same mark as So You Think. Interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out. If they all end up in the Arc it could be a truly great race.
Nathanial deserves to run in the Arc but he wont be winning, dosent have the speed. Pour Moi's only danger is luck in running. I second what beef said, hats will be eaten if Nathanial wins the Arc.
And yet he was still able to win a slowly run King George? I think he seems to have been too easily written off by many, purely for the reason that the running of the King George was unsatisfactory. The form must be treated with caution but that is not to say that the best horse didn't win. It must be remembered that Pour Moi is only rated 122 compared to Nathaniel's 128. I appreciate that Pour Moi is open to improvement but on the bare form Nathaniel is by some distance the best middle distance 3yo seen this season. Underestimate him at your peril.
Zenyatta.....He is being written off because the majority of people never seen him coming in the KG, they were all on the more established horses and they got there fingers burnt by a young improver, so they are refusing to give him any respect or credit for his win. Its not going to be easy in the Arc, and I won't be nailing my colours to any runner until nearer the time, but I realy hope Nathaniel romps home in the Arc, and then maybe they will give him some credit
Nothing to with not backing him the King George, the race was a farce, I think Workforce is overrated and Rewilding obviously never got a chance to win the race. Nathanial was in the right place to go and win the race and the challenge was non existant, an injured Workforce hung right across the track. Ratings are just someones opinion, 128 is far too high and it does not mean he is head and shoulders above anyone. The crop of 3yo middle distance horses is very poor this year and Pour Moi is the only top class colt. Pour Moi a Ferrari Nathanial a Ladda Pour Moi's change of gear would leave Nathanial in two strides.
Well with the exception of Sea The Stars and New Approach id say the last 5 generations of Derby runners have been poor, though the Derby rarely produces top quality fields. Nathaniel beat the 3 most talented middle distance horses from last season, so he has boosted the form of the 3yo generation this season, particularly as Treasure Beach beat him. Pour Moi was the best horse from Epsom, but I'd hardly say he won like a Ferrari, he won more like a car with more petrol than the others, he just stayed on past tired horses. He goes to the Arc with a fair chance, bit I still believe Nathaniel ran to a higher level of form in the King George
The King George was a throw out race so I couldnt rate Nathanial on that. I only know that he dosent have the required x factor to win an Arc. Pour Moi made up so much ground at Epsom it was unreal, on the wide outside and the jockey stood up celebrating before the line. He was not seen to best effect on the track but won despite that. Watch him in his Derby trial and you will see what im talking about, what he has that is needed to win an Arc, what Nathanial does not have.
[video=youtube;zkfQqPHcapQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkfQqPHcapQ[/video] That my friend, is class of the highest order. Do yourself a favour and take the 7/2 if you arent already on at bigger prices like myself. Because he will go off 6/4 over there, and he will win. Pour Moi and Frankel are the two real stars of the season.
i think eddieveeee meant "sustained speed" .the ability to sustain a top speed of truer run race.as ive mentioned,no horse(for the 3,forget dubussy) in the sprint finish gained or lossed lengths (workforce hung which caused him to lose a bit) sna was 4l off when they went for home and he finished 4l of.i think if sna was in front when the sprint happened he would of won caused they all maintained there position when the sprint begin to the line.the king george was run about 4 secsonds to slow for the ability of the horses involved,it was not a true test of stanima.
Did you know on that same card GALIKOVA won her trial over the same distance in a faster time and also came home inside the last 3f quicker too?
Eddie.....Why on earth would you want to risk your cash antepost, how on earth can you back a horse without knowing the ground conditions or the draw for that matter, if your horse is drawn out wide youve as good as done your money before the event. That's without the added risk of a your horse picking up an injury. I used to work as a bookie for over 20 years, and Antepost betting has the biggest profit margins by a long way, it's a mugs game. You will get 5/2 on the day, unless he wins the Prix Niel by a massive margin, though they usually crawl and then have a 5f sprint in that race, so it seems highly unlikely, he will impress that much in the trial. If you ask me he got outpaced a little in the Derby, by Carlton House of all horses, watch it again he tracks CH most of the way, and when push comes to shove CH has the better turn of foot and pulls a few lengths clear of Pour Moi, it's only in the last 100 yards Pour Moi proves the stronger stayer and stays on past CH and TB. He certainly didn't win the Derby with raw speed. They always go fast in the Arc so the fact he needs a strongly run race wouldn't bother me
Hes better watched in his trial to see the way he inhales fields on a flat track, easily. I expect this horse to have put it all together by the time the Arc comes round and Fabres comments about him having more speed that Peintre Celebre suggest there will be nothing to go with him.
I completely disagree with this, you were watching a different derby to me if you think he tracked Carlton House round? He was ridden out the back the same way he has been in all his races, it just so happened that carlton house was situated 4th last until the bottom of Tatenham corner. To me the course also didn't suit him and he won the derby inspite of the course, i think he has a god chance in what is looking an intruiging Arc.
I think we have to agree to disagree. I thought the Derby form was questionable at the time as well. Not for a minute am i suggesting that Pour Moi was not the best horse on the day but the fact that a whole load of them finished in a heap must throw at least a question mark over the form. Nathaniel might not have the best turn off foot but to describe him as a 'Ladda' is ridiculous. If anything i would think that he would be the one to show the most improvement for a strong end-to-end gallop. He is a classy and very progressive horse and i fail to see why he can be ruled out of calculations for the Arc so readily. I am not suggesting that he will win but he must be one for the shortlist in my eyes.
History shows that the King George winner is usually a very serious contender in the Arc - no reason to think that won't be the case this year
Hardy....I'm not saying he deliberately tracked Carlton House, but as things turned out he ended up at the back with CH, and IMO CH had a better imediate turn of foot, Pour Moi for me was outpaced by him and eventually stayed on past him. Who is ruling Pour Moi out of the Arc? He has a fair chance particularly with his trainers record, I just wouldn't be rushing off to back him at his current odds. The same reason as anyone who are ruling out Nathaniel are idiots, even if it was slowly run, at worst it would have still turned into a similar stamina test as atleast a 10f race, and that is atleast, yet he out done SNA and WF for gears. Nathaniel's pedigree suggests he will stay all day, afterall he was well fancied for the Leger beforehand, so to say a slowly run 12f victory over the Arc winner and other decent horse's Is bad form, is ridiculous. Zenyatta....My friend, I do t get your point, if Nathaniel doesnt have a good turn of foot, then surely a slowly run race would be against him? For my money he has a useful turn of foot particularly for a 12f horse. Eddie....Maybe you should take note of Greatpidulski's information, if he is correct In what he says about Galikova then Pour Moi's form hardly looks bomb proof. I love it aswell how you've chosen to dodge responding to his comment. Oddog has things spot on, when a King George winner runs in the Arc, you cannot ignore them, only top class horse's win the King George, that is a fact
really??? 2 king george winners from 14 overall have gone onto win the arc since 1988.a further 3 winners have manged a 2nd or 3rd place.average finishing position is 5th/6th. prix foy winners have won 8 from 19 arcs in the same period.3 also placed. average position they finish is 3rd.2 other arc winners came 2nd and 3rd in the prix foy also. thats a poor strike rate considering were talking about a 1m4f gp1 winner only 2 months before the arc.and i dont believe its due to prix foy horse being better then king george horses. behind every stat there is a reason for it. the king george attracts horse who have started in the spring usually.they then hit there peak in mid summer.come october though they are struggling to hold there form.it also takes a maximum effort to win the king george prix foy horses normally have the summer off.they then run in this which is a crawl until 2f out.so a maximum effort isnt needed.if the french stewards were to crack down on this mickey mouse race antics,then i dnt think prix foy winners would have such a good record as 3 weeks rest after a hard effort would be too short to get over it.the time is also slow.bekhabad last year in battling with planteur resulted in a fast time in which they had a hard race and both horses didnt seem to run the best in the arc.this though doesnt normally happen then there is the course,longchamp is slightly downhill 3f to 1f out.ascot is stiff once around the final bend 2 1/2 f from home.so theres course experince as well. gosden says theres no point running in a mickey mouse french trial and a racecourse gallop is the plan as he can work him harder. well i cant argue with a top trainer ,but history as showed that nathaniel would benefit from it,to gain course experience at the very least.
I wouldn't personally say that he has a great turn off foot. He is a relentless galloper who can quicken, but he does not have the electric turn off foot of some others. And yes i would agree that a slowly run race would be against him. His quickening would be a more gradual winding up of the pace. I may be wrong but that is my impression from the evidence i have seen.
