Off Topic The Politics Thread

Rumbled.

 

Tories queuing up to stab each other. Such fun.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ave-european-union-says-tory-mp-a7054696.html

 

Jesus H Christ, Stan, what are you trying to do to me? It's gone midnight and I'm going to struggle to sleep after watching that. It's one of the most horrendously depressing things I've ever watched. I despised every individual shown. I suppose I'm going to have to watch the other parts at some point, but I'll need someone on suicide watch.

 

Oops, not my intention sir. I found it quite revelatory, though of course it's exaggerated and I'm not sure all the connections are valid. He is a great film maker, forces you to think. It doesn't get any more cheerful though, until the last sentence of the last part (which is the most interesting, but also most flawed).

 

Since there's no credible opposition, Nadine obviously feels the need to supply one! Personally, I hope both Cameron and Osbourne get served up with baked beans on top

 

so far

 

I hope we get the chance of another election if the Tories rip themselves to pieces after this referendum and there is a 'hostile' change of leadership, whatever the result of the referendum. As democracy is so important to the Brexiters (much more important than their own careers) I assume Johnson or whoever wouldn't want to inherit Cameron's majority without letting to country have a say (actually I assume the opposite).

I see Nadine says Remain has to get 60% of the vote to stop post referendum shenanigans. Why stop there Nadine, why not 100%? That way you can excuse your behaviour under any circumstances.

Win for Remain, Cameron gets Gove and Johnson back in to the cabinet, to show he is not vindictive, giving Johnson a really difficult portfolio - health (if I didn't care about the NHS I would have a laugh about that) or home office (give him immigration!) Johnson either shows himself up as incompetent or refuses to play, showing himself up as a splitter.

Tories seem just as ****ed up as Labour. Apparently nearly half of Labour voters don't know what the party position is on the EU, largely I assume because the leaders aren't talking about it.

 

As you say, deep splits, deep resentment in the Tory camp. How deep will depend on how Cameron behaves in the next three weeks - if he keeps up his Vinny Jones on Viagra kick, and he doesn't get a clear majority Remain result, then there will be blood letting, and I think Nadine Dorries has called it about right. The rebels will feel safer in what they are doing, knowing there is negligible opposition in Corbyn, and the Lib Dems have disappeared up their own orifices.

If Remain gets 60% plus, then life goes on. As you say, Cameron will offer Brexit big beasts cabinet positions for pragmatism. What will be interesting is whether any Tory Brexiteers go over to UKIP. Priti Patel for example, whose dispute with Cameron has become personal - as an MP with an Asian background, I'm sure Farage would love her on his team from the public relations aspect.

As to a general election, I doubt it. Brown didn't offer it after Blair, and any Cameron replacement will want time to install him or herself before 2020.

 

No problem. It was certainly interesting, but I think it was the bombardment of unchallenged cynicism that got to me. I will watch parts two and three and hope for a happy ending.

 

There is a difference though Goldie, Brown was a 'continuation' PM, it was a coronation rather than a competition, whereas any successor other than Osborne to Cameron will have won an attritional and nasty fight, and will represent a change of direction. Don't expect an election to seal the authority of the new person though.

The fault lines in the parties are now clear - Labour has its left wing leadership, essentially a protest group, some shy Blairites and a tiny rump of real Old Labourites. The conservatives have their patrician 'one nation' leaders like Cameron (Johnson fits in there as well, if it wasn't for his ambition), the populist right like Dorries, Mordaunt and Patel who would as you say be a better fit with UKIP, and a weird collection of hard right nostalgic Daleks like Redwood, Rees-Mogg and Cash (I think Gove belongs here too). IBS appears to be in a galaxy all by himself.

The EU is clearly a very important issue for a great many people, and a referendum was inevitable at some stage. It would have made much more sense to have held it after the next treaty negotiations (2020 I think. If the EU spurned the chance of serious reform at that stage, after serious lobbying from the UK and others - as it likely would - the Brexit case would be nigh on unassailable) I do rather resent the way this has turned out, it's fun to see the Tories cut their own hamstrings, but I really don't care what Cameron thinks of Johnson and vice versa, the issues and decision are too important for it to be taken over by a gurning contest.

 

I agree with you on the timing of the Referendum, Stan - it probably is premature, but brought about by domestic politics and the increasing vote share of UKIP. The whole process is hardening attitudes, of politicians and voters. If there is a Remain vote, I expect there to be a shift of voters towards UKIP and then there'll be big pressure for electoral reform.

Any further referendum will be parked - but if the Remain victory is by a slim margin, then any of the treaty changes to which you refer, an accession of a new member state particularly Turkey, or marginalisation of the UK as a result of the 26 Euro countries voting as a block...will produce huge pressure for another referendum. Hopefully not for at least 10 years, but it is perhaps significant that Turkey is already threatening to withdraw cooperation on the Mediterranean Migrant Crisis unless it gets immediate visas for its citizens on Schengen.

The diaspora from Africa (Syria just a small part) is underway and even EU officials are warning that millions are coming. The bigger the crisis, the greater Turkey's bargaining position vis a vis entry into the EU.

 

Doesn't really require a referendum on anything for parliament to act though Goldie. If a group of Tories split to join UKIP and get a majority in a general election on a withdraw platform they can do this (its what parliament is there for after all). The only reason Cameron called a referendum was to keep his party from splitting...

 

True Tooting, but with one MP at the moment, I don't see UKIP getting a majority in Parliament. Even if the Tories split in two, and these Brexiteers's formed Tory Independence Party, they and UKIP would probably still be outvoted by the Tory Remainians, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems and Greens. If the EU goes wrong for the UK and Tory Remainians join their Brexit colleagues, they would still have to get through the House of Lords... In these circumstances, presumably some way down the line, another referendum might look the simpler option

 

bit of a surge for the Leave side. More sexual harassment at a German festival this week should open a few more eyes to what awaits them if we stay

 

I'm guessing drink had been taken ninesy?

 

Interesting to see Cameron & Sidiq Khan share the same platform yesterday.......possibly the quickest burying of the hatchet ever......

At least Khan has shown what side of the argument he's on unlike the rest of the Labour top brass........Where is Jezza and McDonald? It's about time they showed their hand although Jezza is in a rather difficult position due to his dislike of Europe but wants the European workers rights......maybe his puppeteers in the Unions have told him to say nothing!!!!!!

 

I think that is exactly it for Corbyn. The EU actively discourages state involvement in industry especially 'new' nationalisation, which is a big part of his thinking. But it does offer something for workers. He should be out making hay with the Tories fighting each other, but I suspect he doesn't fancy being questioned too closely on what he thinks, as he's not as comfortable with lying as some others. To his credit.