I still think we will lose him. He'll have options and likely PL options too. It would be great if we could keep him and obviously the noises he is making is that if they give him the control he wants then he is up for it. I just can't see Ashley/Charnley giving up the control. They have a ready made excuse to find someone cheaper.
But they have also seen a string of results at the end of the season that a proper manager can string together. Plus they know how much money is on offer in the PL now. Money talks.
I am still preparing myself for the fact that he is more likely to leave than to stay, even though it is hard to keep the hope from bubbling over into expectation. I suspect that the most likely reason for him leaving will simply be a better offer coming along though. I actually think Ashley will want to keep him as he will see the potential for getting back into the premier league quickly, and so getting his premier league advertising back. Where it falls down is that he has tasked Lee Charnley with securing that agreement. He is basically asking a turkey to vote for Christmas, as it is hard to imagine that Rafa's demands will not include the break up of the current structure - as that is exactly what we need. We probably would need Ashley to take over the negotiations from Charnley so that he could listen to what was needed. I don't expect that to happen though.
I think he'll stay the summer and then leave in end august, due to broken promises re transfer funds and control. WIth Beardsley to be promoted to senior coach for the championship season, working in close conjunction with the footballign board made up of the great Graham Carr, bald **** Mickey mouse and Tufty, ****ing joe kinnear cameo.-
Rafa looks after Rafa..... The risk to his reputation should he opt to stay and then fail to bring you straight back up is massive. It's not impossible that he'll choose to take on the challenge, but imo it's unlikely
I have to say I am a little concerned about the way he publicly went around everyone and their expression at what he was saying to them , Townsend in particular seemed to be trying to get something across to him , just guessing
I think it will be all down to whether there are any other options for him elsewhere. Cant imagine the town not given him exactly what he would want cos if Rafa walks away and suggests that Ashley and co. bottled it then there will be hell on! Just wondering that he may keep himself signed on but with a release clause saying that if a top club were to approach him then he will be allowed to discuss terms with them. Maybe halfway through next season or even at the end. He could possibly get Newcastle promoted but then get head hunted before the start of the next campaign.
Agree with a lot of that. There are a number of unknown factors too though that may play a role in his decision. We don't know how important it is to him to stay in England. We know he has said it is his preference, but don't know how much it would sway him if a really big job offer came up abroad. Looking for positives (from our point of view) we may get lucky in the fact that the two big jobs that seem to have possibilities for openings in England are Everton and Man United. Both are clubs where a significant portion of their fans wouldn't want him due to his Liverpool past. Both jobs would also risk his reputation with Liverpool fans which he seems to genuinely cherish. However, we've seen before that he has taken on jobs at clubs where he has known he was not a popular choice. Another unknown is that none of us know how big a gambler he is and how prepared he is to take a risk. There was really no risk to his reputation in coming here for 10 games. He would be a hero if he saved us and relegation would be down to MacClaren. If he stays next year it is a risk though. The championship is not an easy league to get out of and he would be opening himself up to plenty of stick if he didn't get us promoted. Set against that, we are such a **** up of a club that if he did get us up and managed to build something good then he would be seen as some sort of genius. I think a lot will come down to how those two possibilities weigh up in his head. If there is a sticking point in Ashley agreeing to his terms it could possibly be that he would want assurances on transfers and keeping players to such an extent that it took most of the risk out of it for him. That would then turn it round onto Ashley as to how big a risk he was willing to take with our finances when promotion would still not be guaranteed. As you said though, the most likely stumbling block is likely to be one that is completely out of our hands when a big club makes him a very good offer.
The other issue in all this is the football league's financial fair play rules. I believe the limit on losses is 13 million a year. This means Rafa (if he were to stay) couldn't strength the squad that much. It would also depend on which players leave, who much we could get for them and the value of the wages they take with them.
I suspect Ashley will ignore financial fair play rules in the hope/expectation that yous will come straight back up. He will take the hit when yous get promoted I expect. Bournemouth were fined just over £7 million I think.
Hope he stays with you lot. He'll bring you back up ASAP. I still believe had you gotten him sooner you'd have stayed up.
I got totally confused by this last week, but I think it's the case that we can't have total debts averaging more than £13 million a year over 3 years. Added to that, the years we were in the prem will be set at the prem FFP limit which is about £35 million a year. So next year we will not be allowed to have a total loss of £83 million over 3 years - and we have made a profit over the last 2 years, so that would push this figure higher for next year at least. It will become a big issue if we don't get back up quickly though.
It is very important to him to stay in England. His family still live in Caldy (on the Wirral) as I live not far from there myself and Rafas wife and kids go to school here. I don't think he would have taken our job in the first place if working in England wasn't a high priority for him to be honest. Everton is a job I would be surprised if he turned down (if offered) as it's simply too convenient, they're a good - underperforming - squad and goodwill to Rafa is enough that I don't think too many Liverpool or Everton fans would begrudge him the move. That said I think we've got a decent chance of keeping him. Less than 50% chance (I do expect him to go) but still a good possibility. It really does depend who else comes in for him though it would need to be soon, he said "maximum 2 weeks" and whilst there was an element of putting himself in the window I would be surprised if it wasn't answered by then - it's only fair on ourselves who may need another manager and if he does stay he needs time to work out targets and who is going.
