Ok, its been a couple of hours since the game ended. This is where my head is now... Accrington and Plymouth got good wins tonight, so fair shout to them. Obviously thats a negative though for us. However, Oxford failing to win is a positive as it has stopped them from pulling away. We are 5th which looks negative but turning that into a positive, we are still just 2 points behind 2nd and 1 point behind 3rd, so its not over. Only 3 games left and the negative is we are now relying on others, if we want to get top 3, otherwises its the play offs for us. But the positive is, we are guaranteed a play off place anyway. Therefore the pressure is off us in that respect but the pressure is on Accrington and Oxford to stay in the top 3. We have seen tonight what pressure has done to 2nd placed Oxford and 3rd placed us. We both failed to win and and as a result, we both slipped a place or two. Now the pressure is still on Oxford who is now 3rd and its on Accrington who has moved up to 2nd. But its off us. So currently its the play offs minimum. If we win last 3 games, it could still be the play offs. So the pressure is off as its now Accrington and Oxfords to lose.
All got 3 games left and all will be home and away at the same time so all got home advantage twice. Accrington: Vs York (h) - need to win to try and avoid relegation Vs Wycombe (a) - 4 points outside play offs Vs Stevenage (h) - nothing to play for Oxford: Vs Hartlepool (h) - nothing to play for Vs Carlisle (a) - 7 points outside play offs Vs Wycombe (h) - 4 points outside play offs Plymouth: Vs Dag & Red (h) - already relegated Vs Cambridge (a) - 5 points outside play offs Vs Hartlepool (h) - nothing to play for Rovers: Vs Exeter (h) - 5 points outside play offs Vs York (a) - should already be relegated before we play them Vs Dag & Red (h) - already relegated
The five contenders for the two automatic spots all played teams which on paper they should have won. But it isn't like that at this end of the season. With the pressure off, York took a wobbly Portsmouth apart. Oxford, who looked like candidates for the Funny Farm after their nervous performance against Luton, ended Newport's six match run of consecutive defeats. Accrington and Plymouth scraped past their lower reaches opponents. I believe DC saw last night as a must not lose situation and a bonus if we picked up all three points. All the teams face the problem of not knowing which opposition team will turn up. They are all targets for players who want to ensure next season's pay day. Most will not care whether they win or lose, so will play with a more relaxed attitude. One major feature of the results of the last two match days is that the 2 places for automatic promotion are now realistically contested by four teams not five. Portsmouth must now be out of the running.
For me Accrington have all but rapped up 2nd place I can see them getting 7pts from their remaining games and the 3rd place IMO will go to Plymouth who will probably get 7pts also. Oxford have poor home form and now looking at the remaining games I think they have the toughest games I can see us also getting 7pts. For me we blew it last night thanks to DC's negative approach to the game he needs to stick to 4-4-2 and play all the best players Looking at Pompey's fixtures its even possible they could drop out the play-offs altogether (which would be good for us as they always spank us) they got some real toughies Wycombe (H) Wombles (A) Hartlepool (A) Northampton (H). So for me I'm sicking to my play-off prediction.
I predicted play offs too in your poll. Hartlepool apparently made 5 changes for last nights game. They are apparently trying players who dont normally play to see if they warrant a new contract or not. So a negative is they are not playing their strongest squad. But the positive is the players coming in have to fight to prove they are good enough!
When a poll was taken on this forum with about 7 games to go I said automatic promotion providing we had no more than 1 defeat and 1 draw working on the basis of losing to Northampton we have had 2 draws so when we win the last 3 games automatic promotion will be ours
I too thought 1 win and 1 draw should see us get top 3. I was thinking lose at Northampton and draw vs Exeter. So we are a point better off so far where we drew at Northampton. So if we pretend last nights draw replaces the draw I predicted we will get vs Exeter then we cant afford another draw or a defeat in final 3 games. All 3 are must wins. Just think, Gosling hit the post yesterday. A few inches across would have seen us score and may have won the game and we would be 2nd now.
I agree we are still in with a shout so many different scenarios we could be back up to 3rd if we win and have results go are way or we could lose and the others win and automatic promotion could all but be over.
