Morning, pilgrims. In my lifetime I don’t think I’ve known a GN like this one as to my eye it is chocked full of blatant non-stayers. Why owners are running so many of the runners here I’ve no idea as they would have had more chance in The Boat Race. I think the most likely winner is THE LAST SAMURI who has looked very good this term and just as importantly is exceptionally well perched. I’ve also backed MANY CLOUDS as he must be in the shake up and a reproduction of his ’15 vintage is going to see him go very, very close. As I said back in Feb I took 66/1 each-way re HADRIAN’s APPROACH which hardly looks inspiring now as 80’s is currently available! I’ve topped up a little bit, again each-way, on Mr Henderson’s charge again this morn. The handicapper has taken a real chance re this one and you can guarantee he’s been trained to perfection by the forum’s favourite. Good luck, you types.
Bookies wet dream today. A fall of 1 of the 3 short priced fav's and they'll be miles clear. 1.45 - Urban Hymm 2.25 - Bello Conti w/o Fav 3.00 - The Game Changer w/o Fav 3.40 - Prince of Scars w/o Fav 4.20 - Coologue 5.15 - Sir Des Champs/Goonyella 6.10 - Sgt Reckless
Gone for three in the Aintree Grand National today, all at long odds. OnenightinVienna 40/1 e/w Very unexposed type and put up some high class performances early this season to suspect he could be good enough to win this if he sees out the trip. After his narrow defeat to Blaklion at Cheltenham in December, he stood out to me as a horse who would really like even further than the 25 furlongs he raced that day. If he jumps well, I'd be hopeful of a place. First Lieutenant 50/1 The nearly horse so many times, almost came down early last year, his jumping let him down, showed his form again this season when running Don Poli close in the Lexus, subsequently pulled up, a break can revive him and he can hack around here and make the frame at what would look a silly price were he to win. Gilgamboa 66/1 Good horse in his own right this lad, probably been racing mostly against types a little classier than himself but the trip can improve him today, he will hunt around and steadily build and could have the class required too be there travelling well 2 out, if he can see it out all the way is the question. Best of luck with your National bets
Shutthefrontdoor's been well supported all morning. One of the few in the race I've not somehow managed to back and I would have thought the rain made him even less likely to get home even with the refitted cheekpieces. I'll bloody kick myself if he wins.
2 main bets outside the National today are both David Pipe runners - Kings Palace in the opener and Dell' Arca in the lucky last. Win singles and a double.
Looking at how BOSTON BOB is treated in the weights against the Irish stalwarts he's very fairly in. Mind you that's largely looking at form from more than 12 months ago, however on his last start his beating of On His Own in receipt of 3lbs and better off today also confirms my suspicion he's not badly off. Complete lottery still, to even get round is hard work!
Boston Bob really has come with a wet sail a couple of times at the end of races so he is intriguing in a 4 miler. (I remember him winning over 2 and a half at Aintree and being a very unlucky faller in Lord Windermeres RSA having swept to the front). Add to that a staying on 2nd in the Albert Bartlett and you can begin to make a case. The issue is knowing which Boston Bob turns up. The same could be said about Sir Des Champs- if he was to run near his best today I suspect 10st 13lb is a damn good weight too,but again which one turns up?
We do have a Reserve system in the Grand National, the problem being that it is a rather pointless one. At the final declarations on Thursday, four reserves were nominated, those being the four horses just below The Romford Pele in the weights. The 2014 winner Pineau De Re missed out as he was No. 46. If any horse(s) had been declared a non-runner by 11am on Friday, the reserves would have taken their place. Any non-runner after that simply reduces the size of the field. The stupidity of the people who run racing never seems to amaze. I would have thought by now that we would have a bookmaker-sponsored Silver Grand National run on the Friday as that seems to be what is happening with most of the major flat handicaps.
The Dutchman at 51.00 in the 14:25 at Aintree Exchequer at 6.00 in the 14:35 at Lingfield Mardale at 1.44 in the 14:40 at Sedgefield Mere Anarchy at 2.88 in the 14:50 at Chepstow Good luck! http://freebetcalc.com/odds-calculator/lucky-15-calculator?prefill=51.00,6.00,1.44,2.88
Backed Ubak at Cheltenham and left him alone today as I didn't think the step up would suit. Got that wrong
The Sheppards have only gone and got hold of one formerly trained by the forums favourite trainer in the shape of Act Four (2.15 Chepstow). This is a full brother to the very useful promising novice hurdler MONO MAN who sadly got injured and never raced again after finishing 3rd at Newbury behind Colour Squadron. Keep your eye out for this one in a handicap somewhere one time.
Yorkhill is just ridiculously talented, and still as green as the grass he runs on. Don't think I've been as taken by a novice since Faugheen. Crazily talented horse.
Folks with the ground getting soft i'm going to chance PRINCE OF SCARS against thistlecrack @20/1. I am not saying he will win but he was great at leopardstown on soft, he is fresh and is the fun value option. Worth a dart anyway.....
Douvan was good but next up is the sexiest horse in racing, the superb, imperious, irresistible Thistlecrack. Sit back and watch perfection in equine form.
