Off Topic Political Debate

I'm waiting for the weather to warm up a bit, I'm currently a bit of a layabout (you can tell by the time I waste on here!!) but hopefully will start the house build soon, although my days of hard labour are well and truly over.

 

This is a list of import tariffs to the EU

I wonder if our own BREXPERTS (Brexit experts) can answer the following:

Would the UK have to pay any tariffs to export to the EU?

How long it would take to put favourable treaties in place?

Given how the markets have reacted unfavorably to the referendum very recently how would they react if we vote to BREXIT and have to make preferable trade treaties?

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Most of the important items are less than 5%. Exchange rates vary by up to 25% so this is a non story especially when exporters from the EU would like to limit tariffs into the UK. Not hard to imagine a mutually agreed arrangement could be sorted fairly quickly.

 

A follow up

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EU is the worlds biggest tariff free zone. Why would we choose to leave a proven market to try and forge links in a new one(s)?

 

There are seven acknowledged possibilities of what sort of relationship we could have with the EU if we left. If we knew which of these options was favoured we might be in a better position to answer Yorkie, but there doesn't seem to be a common view at present.

 

How can anyone think it is beyond the wisdom of EU & UK officials to create a mutually beneficial arrangement,?

Obviously somebody with zero business experience.

 

So everyone thinks that if we leave the club the EU will try and play fair .We are talking business , When placing orders if they can place it with any other EU company they will . If EU farmers want to block the ports they will . This is all about power and control .

 

I agree Brian. Let's face it big businesses are cut-throat... that is how they get big and survive...

I am sure the EU will all love us so much for taking our ball home with us... .and then us saying we still want to pay but to our rules.... and like ... NOW ... too.

 

I am sure that VAG, BMW, Bosche, Airbus, French Champagne growers, Spanish salad growers etc etc. would be VERY keen to have a trade agreement with the UK if there was a Brexit. They would put huge pressure on their governments to put huge pressure on the EU to reach agreements. It seems that people just do not understand the concept of who has the most to lose! I will ask again, with the balance of trade firmly in the favour of European countries into the UK, who has the most to lose with a tarif war or protracted negotiations?
The EU may be the largest tariff free trading block, but it is also the only major trading block whose GDP is falling - it is in decline and presided over by a bloated, ineffective and inefficient government.
Vauxhall have just announced that they are opening a pan-European customer support centre near Bandit Central with over 300 new jobs - seems a major U.S. Company is not that concerned about a possible Brexit.

 

I'm sure Mr 'fiddling' Volkswagen, Mr BMW and Mr Mercedes will want to continue to sell their cars to their second best market. Not difficult to see a sensible deal. I'm sure our European 'friends' will throw a short term tantrum but will want to continue trading.

The french will not want the British public boycotting their wine, cheese and rubbish cars.

 

I just think that we tend to play by the rules and if our European friends can get away with it they will .I just cant see why we are taking the risk ,unless we want more right wing control .

 

The truth is that most of what we are discussing is speculation. We do not know what the economic reality of a Brexit would be because the situation is an unprecedented one. In most other countries in Europe you will hear some criticism of the EU. and its workings - also in Germany. However, restricting this debate to economics does not get us to the core of the problem - namely that the French, Germans, Dutch etc. feel European but the British mostly don't. It is still a case of Frogs, Krauts, Clogs and Sprouts for many people in Britain and Europe is always 'over there'. My feeling is that Britain would be more open to the idea if it did not appear to be dominated by 'Frogs' and 'Krauts' (even though it, in fact, isn't) and that Britain, because of its colonial past, has problems being in any organization where it is not automatically 'top dog'. If Britain is, as many on here are saying, so important to Europe (2nd or 3rd biggest economy) and so on, then why is it not capable of playing a full part and excerting infuence from within rather than perpetually complaining about how 'others' are taking Europe in a false direction.

 

You're such a hypocrite

 

I agree this debate is not solely about finance. My issues are sovereignty and border control which also concerns a great percentage of the British public.

Britain has tried, and failed to exert any kind of influence from within to prevent the headlong rush to a superstate. It is sometimes better to give up and concentrate on matters where you can have some control over. The referendum is a choice between self determination or subservience to a German dominated superstate.

 

... and the EU will overnight let us trade at a preferential rate?

In the meantime the pound will continue to fall.... etc etc.

No I am conservative when it comes to my finances ..... low risk

 

In direct answer to who has the most to lose, there is quite a skewing of the figures because of the trade between Germany and Holland and the UK. Those two countries are the only ones who we trade with at a deficit from the EU. All of the others we are trading at a surplus with. We should not forget that any trade deal with the EU would be with all of them, not just two.

 

If you look at the charts Yorkie, the pound has been falling against the $ and the € since late November. Cause is believed to be the uncertainity of the referendum but not the result I.e. Not what will happen if there is an exit or not. No one can say if there was an exit that the fall would continue, likewise no one can say if it fall would continue if we stayed in.
If the EU did not let us trade an a preferential rate, then the same would apply to EU goods - see what happens when the price of EU goes up in British stores.

 

Do you have the source of these numbers?

 

Yes, but I will have to go back through quite a list of data.

 

Perhaps someone can answer these questions, even if only with speculation?

The SNP is very pro EU, and the BBC says that Scotland is likely to vote in favour of remaining in the EU. If the Brexit side wins the referendum because of a majority in England whilst the rest of the UK votes for retaining membership of the EU with reasonably large majorities, will independence come back onto the agenda? Similarly, in Northern Ireland will unification with the republic become a topic of debate?

I am genuinely interested in your views. These are not loaded questions.