Off Topic Political Debate

By your comments you obviously know very little about manufacturing, trading, and business. It is you who is making unsubstantiated stories that bear absolutely no relationship with reality.

There is great demand from the Chinese for luxury 'name' goods. My company has employed a Taiwanese woman for the last twelve years, she deals with our production issues in China. Her annual visits to our head office in the UK always means a serious shopping trip to pick up ORIGINAL luxury goods, not copies she could buy at home.

The Chinese economy has fallen back recently from an annual growth of 10% to a level European countries can only dream about.

The failed Eurozone recently managed just 0.3%

 

So you show that you do not know. Sheer bluster. The example I quoted was fact, not one of your scare stories. Not a vague we could do things differently. The reason that China is making these investments is to gain better investments in the EU market, not individual countries. I rather doubt that your lady and her purchases make much difference to the trade figures. Part of the Swiss deal was to sell watches in China by the way.
Just for your information I also ran a company in the UK and am quite familiar with manufacturing, trading overseas and at home, and was quite successful, so get your facts right before your carry on.

 

My facts are always right. To suggest that the UK's negotiating position has any resemblance to Switzerland's is absurd which shows a real lack of experience on your part I'm afraid.

Will we have 'plague of locusts' stories tomorrow, the 'in' crowd seem increasingly desperate.

 

What facts? You have not quoted any so far, just guesses.

 

Your comparison between Switzerland and the UK was more a fairy story than a guess even. You need to come up with more convincing scare stories, this one was frankly laughable.

 

Sorry SH, you show how little you understand about the relationship between countries outside the EU and the EU itself. In 1992 the Swiss decided to stay out of the EU. It took until May 2000 for the country to negotiate trade deals with the EU which they needed. More facts. Can you show that the UK would not have a similar timescale by using facts?

 

If you had the experience that you claim you would realise that that any entity, personal, business or even country would not create a situation where it unnecessarily lost out. There is absolutely no reason why the present import /export relationship the UK and China enjoy should change to any degree. As I have previously stated there are also plans to set up free trade zones.

Can you show why this could not be achieved within two years? The template is already there. The Chinese will be keen to keep trade flowing. Both countries are members of the WTO with strict rules on trade without discrimination and promoting fair competition.

Your analogy is just a dodgy red herring.

 

I asked you for a fact, and once again you just have a vague idea or two. Are you trying to say that the deal between Switzerland and China didn't take that long, or it didn't take eight years for the Swiss to gain access to the EU market? You appear to be in denial of facts.
A recent study suggested that it could take many years, up to ten, to unpick the current arrangements between the EU and the UK, then new trade arrangements could come into force which would get us back to where we are today. That was the view of a financial study, not a fact, but the result of proper investigation as to where things are. If you can point me in the direction of some decent research into the matter I will read it, but headlines from some of the daily press will not do.

 

I think the point OFH is that it is in no ones interested not to continue with existing trade agreements, so the existing trade agreements between the UK & China (I.e. The EU agreement) would be the basis. So the time required would be to draw up the paperwork and not in negotiation, so why should it take years. As we can see and had been noted, Chna's economy has stalled, so they have every interest to continue to trade with an economy the size of the UK. It's difficult to compare new agreements with existing ones that just need to be ratified again.

 

I have no interest in some obscure country's negotiations. Any deal they achieved has no relationship whatsoever to the likely deal the UK would obtain.

Your quoted study was probably funded by an interested party. To suggest that China would delay negotiations which resulted in a substantial financial loss for them is fantasy. Even if there were some negotiations which eventually changed the terms it would suit all parties to keep the present arrangements in place until that time.

You clearly cannot understand the vastly different negotiation positions between Switzerland and the UK. Not even the most rabid europhile would back your analogy with straight face.

 

The problem is that these existing specific agreements are with the whole EU which is an open market, and not FTA agreements which are a totally different thing.

 

OK, just give me some examples then of major countries that have concluded trade deals in two years.

 

W-Y has already tried to explain to you that the logical conclusion is to continue with the same terms as at present. It is in nobody's interest to deviate from this position until formal arrangements are in place, similar to the agreement once article 50 is in place. I suspect the EU will be spiteful if rejected but this will not affect UK/China relations.

Try another horror story that is slightly more logical.

 

Once again you cannot provide anything in the way of fact. I have asked you several times for evidence and you do not come back with any. You really are not helping your argument if you cannot or will not provide a sensible discussion point or two. Slurs on others simply weaken your stance.

 

Let us indulge your fantasies. You suggest the UK would have a period without a trading agreement similar to at present. Presumably you suggest there would be much greater tariffs on import /export trade with China, incidentally this would harm the Chinese much more than us. The result would be to exacerbate China's present slowdown and result in increased unemployment for them. Manufacturers, like my company, would increase its business in other Asian countries and elsewhere that are dead keen to attract more trade.

UK firms would adjust accordingly, given greater incentive to manufacture in the UK, increasing employment at home. I'm sure the UK does not need most of the products currently sent from China.

In reality none of this would happen, it is unlikely that any variation of trading deals would be introduced. Even if there were some British businesses cope with currency fluctuations to a much greater degree.

Apart from quoting the ridicules comparison with Switzerland your argument is threadbare. We are part of the world trade organisation with 161 other members, including China.

 

You mentioned the Chinese obsession with luxury goods. One would have thought then that they would have been keen to secure their market for Swiss watches.....

 

Our biggest trade partner is Europe . They will still want to sell to us, But will they still want to buy from us ? And if we leave the party they will still give us the same terms ? And if we upset the France framers they block the ports . Will company's move there European HQ because we are no longer in the EU . I think its better to be in the club and work it the best to our advantage.

 

If Britain voted to leave the EU. it would take a further 2 years to actually free itself of all the treaties which it has signed. Pulling out of the EU. completely could take as long as it takes to join it - in the meantime there would be only uncertainty You have shown no evidence to suggest that Britain would be able to jump into other/alternative trading arrangements overnight, something which would be particularly difficult because the future of the UK. itself (re. Scotland) would be brought into question. If you spent more time on here producing coherant arguments rather than insulting or trying to belittle other posters then I, for one, would take more notice of what you say - it would also help if you proved, from time to time, that you read other people's posts. I'm also rather amazed at the arrogance(not to say ignorance) of classifying a whole nation as 'obscure', particularly as the country referred to has higher living standards than the UK. has the safest currency in Europe, produces more quality products than the UK. could ever dream of, has the highest environmental standards in Europe and also the oldest democracy in Europe.

 

No evidence has been shown that the UK would be unable to continue with mutually beneficial agreements with trading partners.

Switzerland is insignificant on the world stage compared to the UK. I'm surprised you are defending the home of financial shenanigans, German looted funds, drug and crime proceeds etc.

Today the 'leave' camp have welcomed another experienced ex chancellor, Norman Lamont to join Nigel Lawson and ex governor Melvyn King. They are all very wary of the direction the eurocrats are taking the EU.

 

Yet more proof that you never read other people's posts.