Identity Thief, who ties in closely with Top Notch and as such, the Triumph form, had Nichols Canyon bang in trouble last time before getting outstayed in a bog. Nichols Canyons form is nowhere near My Tent and The New Ones best level, hes beat a fat Faugheen, a 3 miler and a John Ferguson horse, Windsor Park reversed the Delloite form on good ground and Alvisio Ville, Silver Concorde and Mckinley have not exactly franked the form of that race. Only chance Nichols has is if it comes up soft.
I know you said you haven't watched much jumps this season so you obviously missed the race at Leopardstown that featured the top 2 hurdlers?! You keep going about Identity Thief being similar to Top Notch on their Newcastle run, again this must have been a race you missed. If you actually watch the race you'll know Identity Thief was value for a lot more than the official margin, with a clean jump at the last he'd have won by 5 or 6l.
I backed Identity Thief at Newcastle, doubt he would have won by 5 or 6. If Arctic Fire is the second best hurdler I wouldnt be going around telling people about it, think The Tullow Tank beat him 20L not long ago and hes 4 from 17. 15L Faugheen smashed him, The New One and Hargam were only beaten 7.
Second in last years race and was top rated in this years until ruled out. I just deal with facts amigo, and those are the facts!
Safe to say the ratings were a nonsense, he was flattered in that crawl of a Champion Hurdle, nothing before or since has come close to justifying his rating and I dont think even you would deny that.
Soft ground is a factor for Nichols Canyon but his chance is mainly dependent upon two things: 1. Being able to lead; 2. Have two tough races on bad ground in December and January left it's mark?
Didn't Faugheen put up a career best at Leopardstown, vastly superior to his Christmas win? I think he did you know
I don't know beefy. That's the problem with just looking at bare facts in isolation. I suppose the only thing we can safely deduce is that Arctic Fire is not improving at the same rate (if at all) as Faugheen, even though he is a year younger. That would mean less in chasing but, as a hurdler, I'm concluding that Arctic Fire is fully exposed and apart from Faugheen, there is no meaningful form in the book that helps one bit with unravelling this CH race. His run against Faugheen in last year's CH therefore is about as good as he can be. Against what is left in the CH this year the obvious questions for me are: "What price would Faugheen be assuming no improvement from last year?" and "Would we have expected him to win by at least 2l on the same assumption). Based on the most probable answers to those questions I reckon AF would have had a favourite's chance in the absence of Faugheen. But, as we all know, he isn't going to be there. So I'm struggling to find one to beat Annie if the going comes up soft. I think she will stretch them from some way out and blunt any finishing speed the others may have. I would have gone for Different Gravey (being the biggest improver in the field) but he won't be there I understand. Should connections change there mind and supplement him, he's the one for me
Hard race to weigh up Ron, it's lacking in quality relative to most Champion Hurdles (especially last year's quality renewal). Still think Yanworth would have a shout if they sent him.
When are you two gonna realise that camping ground has the best form on offer for the champion hurdle. Smashed a good field over two and a half at HQ, was all over al ferof at Huntingdon when unseating over two miles and al ferof went on to finish third in the King George, which is probably the best form in the book. And please don't come back with ratings.
That maybe so, but I'm dealing with what we know, the facts. Everything else is opinion. I don't know the stats as far as times and so on are concerned, but the Huntingdon race looked pretty quick and the race he won at HQ left a good field floundering. I grant you it's not grade 1 form, but it's the best there is. Cue card thistlecrack are the benchmark.
I've had a look at Camping Ground's form Florida and I think the form that gives him the best chance is his Imperial Cup run. Btn nk and 1l by Rayvin Black, giving that one 24lb with Thistlecrack 1¼l behind, giving that one 15lb, Rayvin Black ran TNO to 2¼l receiving 8lb from TNO. One could argue that puts him in with some chance against TNO who is 7/1 for the Champion with CG at 25/1. I would love to see Hargam run well because I've been thinking of using Sinndar on our Dancing Brave granddaughter. To be honest though, neither Hargam, nor TNO are in the same league as Faugheen. Only Willie (and a few others) know if Annie is
