I hear Trading Standards are trying to get this heat renamed ‘The Hurdle’. Previously I said connections should be closely looking to supplement any 2 mile hurdler rated 150+. One will revise that now, following the Arctic Fire news, to 145+. The odds re a ‘Endo 1-2-3-4-5 have now shortened even more, troops.
Starting to look like a Grade 2 race with the possible exception of Annie Power, if she can run to her rating she'll slam this lot but whether she can do that over 2m I'm not so sure... You'd have to really think JP is bound to have to consider rolling the dice with Yanworth now? Looks a cut above the novices and the step back would suit? I'm sure JP would like a winning chance here as he has none at the minute.
Yanworth could be a very crafty defection TBH. With the CH field dropping like flies, there might not be a better time to create history. Was Alderbrook the last novice to win the CH or was he the only horse to win the CH off the back of 1 run?
I think there's little chance of Yanworth going to the CH. If he wins the Neptune and progresses next year, he could be a real threat to Faugheen and I assume King believes this.
Annie Powers form suggests she will be lucky to place, will need a career best to get involved, Nichols Canyon was beaten 26L by Telescope and 28L by Faugheen last time out, Walsh would have chosen 2 horses ahead of him and will now choose a mare ahead of him. Ill be surprised now if Mullins wins the race. Couldnt have Identity Thief. The New One and My Tent at their best are undoubtedly a class above but question marks about both, whether The New One is the same horse and My Tents prep. I thoroughly expect Hargam to bolt up.
What about the other 2 Henderson 5YOs Boris? And the horrible 5YO stat? I've a small e/w interest in MTOY at 20s and that will do me. Had Faugheen in my day 1 yankee (with Annie Powerin the Mares) so need Min and Douvan to do the business to get my money back Might throw something at The New One on they depending on how the ale is flowing
Top Notch closely matched with Identity Thief on Newcastle form but Henderson has said a few times Hargam would beat him on good ground, if its soft Hargam has no chance, if its good I suspect the forums favourite trainer will be proven correct yet again. Peace And Co appears to have lost his way so I couldnt back him but hes one that you wouldnt be surprised by if Mr Henderson can perform another of the miracles he is so widely regarded for. He has said that Peace And Co and My Tent are the two best of his, but plenty of faith required to back either and I reckon he is allowing Hargam to go into the race quietly despite holding arguably the best form of his runners this season with his 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle. The 5yo stat is what it is, but the way the race has fell apart and the question marks over established horses, it could be an easier year than most for the 5yos, hes had more runs over hurdles than Identity Thief so experience shouldnt really be an issue, I happen to think hurdling is one of his strengths. The great man also reported him to have a "done a Binocular" physically over the summer and he is coming into the race off a career best and still open to plenty of improvement. Henderson said: "I was delighted with Hargam. He had to give them all weight and when he got beaten by Karezak on his first run here last year he needed it. "I could have done with a bit more time to get him ready for this but he will come on for the race wherever he goes next. Barry (Geraghty) was pleased and said that he had a good blow. "He was a little Flat horse last season but he has grown into a jump horse now. He is doing a Binocular on us as his development over the summer has been like his was. I like the way he has progressed and filled out."
SPs for this race are quite interesting in the last 10 years there have been winners at 9/1, 11/1, 9/1, 22/1, 10/1 and 16/1 Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly and Faugheen were winning favs in the other 4 but there doesnt appear to be anything of that class in the race now. Its definitely a race where something can step up on the day, just look at Arctic Fire last year, beaten in 4 starts that season going into the race and would have hacked up at 20/1 but for Faugheen. 6 of the last 10 winners also had a one word name, Hargam is the only one word name left in the race, compelling evidence in the case for him im sure you will agree.
Taking Annie Power's mares allowance into account, something will need to run up to close to 170 to beat her and with Arctic Fire out, there's simply nothing that can do that in this decimated field. Hargam at 25/1 If the bookies on the day have my sense you'll see 50s and you'd still swerve it unless you're on crack cocaine. Let's not forget the thing was well stuffed in the Triumph and you wouldn't wipe your arse with that form now. Might have a chance in the Scottish race off his mark, and hopefully he won't be as embarrassing as his pal My Tent was there 2 years ago. Failing that can see the pair being contenders at Crufts, what price can I get for that
Hargam was 1/2L second to future G1 Grand Prix De Paris 3rd first time out, on his second run he beat a horse who a won a G3 next time and a G2 later. Classwise, he is inferior to none in this race, Nichols Canyon was listed/Group 3 class, on nice ground he is going to be a threat to all.
I thought flat form was irrelevant when discussing jumps racing? At least that's what the John Ferguson apologists live off
Beefy is being left with no choice, look at the field FFS Almost as surprising as you writing post after post slating them to be fair
How do we know Annie Power is a 160+ horse over 2 miles? I've always held that her rating was based on her defeats of Zarkandar who was past it at the time. Look at her last few runs IN THE CONTEXT OF A CHAMPION HURDLE: Last run - forget it, exercise canter Punchestown May 2015 18F - beat Analifet (not won since she was a juvenile and now rated 142) by 10L Cheltenham March 2015 20F - fell at the last with the race at her mercy but it's not as if she were cantering all over Glen's Melody, she was being vigorously ridden. Glens Melody was also rated 142 prior to Cheltenham, now upped to 150. Punchestown May 2014 18F - beat Jennies Jewel (rated in the 130s) 7L Cheltenham May 2014 - World Hurdle, irrelevant in terms of this race Even in a poor year I am struggling to see a Champion Hurdle winning performance in that lot. Her price is an insult and is based purely on connections. Look at the bare form and you will see that The New One has achieved much more in the same timeframe - at least he finished within 10 lengths of Faugheen.
