Off Topic Political Debate

In my business I used to buy millions of USD's per year to pay for supplies from China. For much of the time it was 1.90 USD/£, if it dropped below 1.75USD/£ it was considered a disaster. What happens in reality is extra pressure is applied on the suppliers and shipping companies to remain competitive.

As I'm not now involved maybe someone can enlighten me if the Chinese now prefer to trade in their own currency, the Yuan or renminbi?

 

I agree with these sentiments ...sadly..... re Davos etc.

In the context of world economic order our in/out debate will not make much difference... but I feel closer to Europe than US.. and heaven forbid our cosying up with China and the politics over there...... the great values we supposedly aspire to as a nation seem to have gone up in trade deals eh....

I am very much impressed with people like the Dalai Lama who as a head of state whose country has been overrun by China and many of his people tortured, raped and murdered, still seeks to make the best out of life.... as we all must really.....

Funnily enough I was just thinking this morning of encouraging my daughter to live her dreams while she still can... ultimately we all must...

 

I have worked for US companies for over 35 years and seen the USD/£ fluctuate from below 1.2 to just above 2. I can remember sitting in The Rookery just a few years ago and getting a call from Mrs W_Y who was in M&S asking how many $'s to buy as they were offering $2 to the £ - I definitely hedged a pile that afternoon.

 

The UK. appears to be deeply divided on this theme. The most pro Europe regions are Scotland, followed by Greater London, N.E. England, The Esat Midlands, Wales and then the North West. The strongest anti regions are the rest of the South East, the South West and East Anglia (the last appears to be the strongest). 63% of those aged 18-29 want to stay in (according to poll findings) and 56% of those aged over 60 want to get out - what does that tell us ? University educated people are also more likely to want to stay in. Is Britain going to tear itself apart over this ? Could Britain leave, with a capital which wanted to stay in ? Should younger people have an extra vote - because they will have to live with the results for longer ? Does anyone know if it is planned as a straightforward first past the post thing, or is a certain turnout necessary - because non voters on this one could be seen as endorcing the status quo, ie. no change.

 

Seeing as the UK services sector trades with the EU at a surplus, it therefore follows that manufacturing trades at a loss. A decline in the value of the pound can only make raw materials or goods bought into the country from wherever in the world more expensive, so making it more difficult to sell on and the trade deficit worse.
There are some interesting statistics out there if you have a search. Over the past ten years the UK has seen the cost of a sale to the EU steadily decline at a much faster rate than to any other part of the world. This is all to do with the UK trading in a single market without the same controls as exist elsewhere. As a comparison Australia signed a FTA with the US, but has actually seen it's costs increase. All very dry stuff to read, but it does show the difference between a single market and a FTA.

 

One interesting fact quoted on the radio this morning is that the overall GDP of the EU is in steady decline and has been for a number of years. Would be interesting to see the country split and see if this is linked to membership of the Euro and the issues some of these countries have had.

 

I once lost over £200k by deciding not to fix at 1.90USD/£. I have been constantly reminded of my mistake for almost 10 years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!!

 

After the general election results you should be very wary of pollsters Cologne, particularly the electronic email type polls- they tend to be very skewed to the politically active. You should not forget the white working class in the North, Midlands and even in pockets in Greater London they tend to be very unrepresented in polls, yet are heavily impacted by immigration. In my very small world, no-one wants anything more to do with the EU and the same is true for my 2 sons - as my very small world related to this topic is very much white working class - and a mix of East Anglia and the SE.
Good questions on how the vote with work, not seen any details as yet.

 

The other interesting dynamic here is that Malta, Cyprus and Ireland all get a vote on this as does any UK citizen living abroad who has been registered on a UK role at any time in the last 15 years. I guess that those four groups will be voting overwhelmingly in favour of staying in.

 

You've got me there Dan, I've been away for 26 years and can't vote

 

It tells me that the over 60s are more experienced, knowledgeable and interested than the younger group. My 22 year old graduate daughter has little interest and is completely ignorant of the merits of in or out.

Maybe only over 60's should be eligible to vote?

 

As someone who has grown up as a 'European', English born, educated in France and then back to England for studies and work, I feel quite concerned about this referendum.

I do like how the 'stay-in' camp has been labelled the 'fear party' by the right, proper Lyndon Crosby-style politics. Every day I've been alive the red-tops/Tories/UKIP have had a constant fear/scaremongering agenda, from straight bananas to fish being named in Latin in chippies, which has now culminated in the 'immigrant problem' and 'they steal loads of cash/it's only helping Germany/France'.

There's an easy solution to make the EU work better, and it's simply caring and voting for MEPs. We've had such a low turnout over the last couple of decades, resulting in UKIP/other joke parties getting a seat at the table and promptly refusing to vote for anything or even turn up. This has definitely put the spotlight on the workings of the EU, and true, there probably is a lot of wasted cash, but where does that cash go? Construction projects? Environmental projects? Farmer subsidies? Most of it goes straight back into the economy...

TTIP is a big concern for me, along with the environmental impact Brexit would imply and protection for workers. My parents have luckily taken French citizenship so I could easily get dual nationality, otherwise I'd have to face a visa/green card situation to spend time with my family.

On the subject of trade, as it's such an unknown it's impossible to predict how the markets will react, but I don't see it worth the risk of gambling on my future just in case...what? What do Brexiters expect? Everyone to swim around in cash Scrooge-McDuck-style once we've left? Wages to increase substantially? Tax receipts to increase? House prices to fall to an affordable level? Cost of living to decrease? I honestly can't see how leaving will benefit us normal people.

The sovereignty debate is ridiculous. A tiny fraction of EU laws impact us, the only vaguely coherent argument I've heard is over EU migration limits, but as it's been proven umpteen times EU migration has a net benefit for the UK financially and for the economy as a whole. All is needed is the government to stop wasting money, like showing off their bombs in Syria or HS2, and invest in our infrastructure (roads, NHS, councils, etc) and housing stock (something the Tories would never consider...).

Human Rights? How can people honestly argue against the ECHR? Of course it's an important part of the workings of the EU, we need an independent tribunal to keep countries in check. There will be the odd time where, like in the Rotherham incident, some 'bad' people will use it to their advantage, but its sole purpose is not to allow *****philes extra rights...

Unfortunately, after decades of tabloids/the Telegraph/etc releasing weekly scare-stories about the EU, we're probably facing Brexit, and no one knows how it will turn out. It might ruin the country, but at least Little Englanders will be happier on their island...

 

Yesterday I had dinner with twenty of my football friends all of whom over the past couple of weeks have been registered to vote and will all vote to stay in. Seeing as there are probably 1.5 million of us we could have quite a say. The British Embassy has been circulating a letter inviting us to follow the simple process of getting a vote, even offering a prize draw to have tea with them.
Like Yorkie I have a friend who gets treatment from our health service that is not available in the UK. No way does she wish to lose this treatment as it could end her life.

 

That is a ridicules scare story about health. If the UK left the EU France and the other members would not refuse treatment or throw out expats. The UK would not penalise the EU citizens currently residing within its borders.

 

I am sorry SH, but you clearly have no idea how the health system between differing countries and their legal responsibilities are set up or you would not have made that statement. Although we could claim right to reside and could not be thrown out, we could lose the agreements between the countries to partly fund medical treatment. I am sure that the groups that have been exploring the effects with the French officials know rather more about their attitude than you do.

 

They also know more than you. There has never been a suggestion that a system that helps mutually will be stopped. There are many other nationalities living in France with adequate access to the French health system. This is just a desperate scare story.

 

I was waiting for the Little Englander quote to turn up and I would have bet on who would have made - not disappointed in Bandit Country!
I have travelled extensively around Europe for over 35 years and I do not recall having to have a visa or Green Card in any Western European country...so why would anyone need one now? More scare stories....

 

Weaker pound would make internal sourcing more attractive would have done wonders for coal and steel. The viewpoint of weakening pound making defecit worse assumes the weakening has no impact on domestic versus external sourcing which is short term maybe applicable but long term certainly not. Trade costs obviously depend on negotiated terms and the value rather than perceived value of ones products. If we as a nation produces efficiently what the world wants/needs/aspires to we'll be successful, if we live in a protected bubble producing what nobody really wants but protected by agreements we end up failing.. its irrelevant whether in or out of the EU for this...

 

As far as I can see there would be very few changes for those British now living in the EU. or for EU. citizens in Britain, in the event of a British withdrawal. Those British currently in possession of permanent residence permits here would not have them taken away - it could be that those still to come would not have it so easy. Also Germany only recognizes dual nationality within the EU. Up to now it has been possible to have dual British/German nationality - and many ex services families have this, this may not be possible after Britain left. Also, for those Britons who have not 'naturalized' in the countries where they live, it could mean losing voting rights in those countries - putting 2 and 2 together I would hate to have to give up British nationality in order to get voting rights in the place where I live. Others problems rise in the compatibility between the 2 pension systems - I will have to draw some pension from 2 countries, which could be difficult. Health problems do not arise because most British here are already paying into the German health system.

 

Reading many expats comments online regarding healthcare in France it appears french local officials often taken differing views on the eligibility criteria. Some expats are covered others not without a fight.

If Brexit occurred the treatment of foreign nationals would be negotiated at national level within the next two years. It is however inconceivable politically that the UK or French governments would allow themselves to be accused of not providing adequate medical protection for their citizens.