Off Topic Mafia game: The island

And to top it off all three of you gave different reasons that were all bad reasons to be voting for someone, particularly so late in the game. And all happened to have for poor reasons gone for the same person lol

 

I wonder if we are thinking of the same person

Also am not acting on it yet - though time is not our friend at the minute!

 

I mentioned the same thing last night. I think someone may have been inactive the first 2 days so MITO allowed them a double kill last night, and that would make them the Cult Leader (or whatever the role is called)

 

Hence me not actually voting for someone; I didn't have a good enough reason to

 

I've reconsidered two of my town reads, but two of them I'm still pretty certain of and have remained certain of throughout.

 

Fixed.

 

Shouldn't have voted for me then



I get the point your making and think RHC is probably currently looking the more likely of the two of you to have been working with ACS but I've got my eye on you, I feel like your playing a slightly different game to how you normally do, can't put my finger on it.

 

From a game play point of view, the best thing we could do tonight is lynch the bad guy who appears to have a strong town read. This is also the riskiest strategy though as it would involve gut feeling more than clues (at this stage anyway).

 

OK finally caught up, lots of constructive discussion going on, nice job guys.

I'll be posting my summary just now, will take a while to type out though.

Will be in 3 posts:

Post 1: My view on the game status, the suspected teams and roles, and the numbers remaining. The possible win conditions too.
Post 2: My view on the exploring and escape route.
Post 3: vote analysis of prior votes and responding to a few of Neville's good posts.

 

We need to get a bad guy tonight given how close the numbers appear to be, would be even better if we can kill a bad guy with a killing role as this may buy us slightly more time before our numbers dwindle.

 

One thing that never changes in my play mate is honesty. I've been busy. Like I said before, does my post count suggest I can choose not to post? I've been on mafia teams before, I've been the SK twice and I've been recruited a few times, I never stopped posting

 

Question to self, who has been the most vocal? Hmmm.





Just covering myself again in case No Chance is screwing us all over, again.

 

Is this time for Nursey and the confessions and punishment game?

 

Driving for the next half hour or so, looking forward to Tennis summary posts

 

Lot of talk but no decisions and no plan.

A. Route. Seems to be to get to the shoreline. Think fastest way is via Hotel and, therefore, suggesting that as our route.

B. Escape. Absolutely no idea!!

C. Bad Guys. G and RHC seem the obvious two. G for voting patterns but I take his point would he be that obvious. One of the vocal ones has to be Bad Guy due to simple numbers. Who? Sir T or AFC or No Chance? Again no idea. My gut says kill No Chance but that's only so he can't crow if he is a Bad Guy and he wins. Couldn't stand that again.

 

don't crash reading texts and driving for the love of god...

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Crazy thought; could it be Nev? He's been talkative throughout but he's been much more talkative and helpful since daybreak. He could be using the information he has to scramble the board. It certainly makes him appear innocent but who's to say he's not changed a few bits here and there to confuse the **** out of us?

As I said, crazy thought. I don't think this is the case. If anything, it shows how much I distrust everyone else

 

@moreinjuredthanowen

Is nightfall still going to be 9pm tonight with Liverpool and Man Utd (albeit, a earlier kickoff) being on TV? There are three Liverpool fans (RHC who won't be online anyway, Astro and myself) and one Man Utd (Tennis) playing.

 

Summary Post 1 of 3

My summary at this stage, I'm going to post pretty much all of my thoughts (except my reads on players as this will affect their behaviour).
Note that as this is a hidden game a lot of this is just guesswork and there's no way we know if it's true, but it's worth considering.

Terminology:
I think that there are 3 teams.
For the sake of this discussion I will refer to the 3 teams as:
Town (obviously)
Guards (Warden etc. and they are the mafia in the OP I believe)
Cult (Acolytes and I will call their leader the Cult Leader, no idea what his real role is)

Guards
I believe they are the Mafia in the OP.
MITO said ""MAFIA" = member of the non town team for purpose of describing rules)"
In my mind Mafia are always the primary bad guy team. All the other teams (like zombies, vampires etc.) are always extra bad guys but the primary bad guys are always Mafia, and they always have the highest numbers.
For this reason I believe the Warden and Guards are the mafia. If they're keeping you on an island against your will they are clearly the main bad guys.
To add to this the kills with the baseball bat (very mafia like) and the clubs (similar to a baseball bat and less conspicuous than carrying it around with you) make me extra certain this team are meant to be the mafia team in this game.
Also the Mafia win condition is to stop people from escaping the island which ties in perfectly with the Warden and Guards.
Suspected initial roles:
1 Warden
Multiple guards, I guess 2 initially plus the recruit option if one dies as Mito mentioned.
I also considered that non-players might make up guards but it's impossible to know and not much that we can do about it so I've ignored it for now.

Cult
We know there are acolytes. I find it incredibly hard to believe there would be acolytes and no leader as it's counter intuitive, so I will believe there is a cult leader until proven otherwise.
I do not agree with the guys thinking these are the mafia. If we were being held prisoner in a religious cult then yes they could be mafia, but they are clearly the second group of enemies Mito mentions in the OP "Other roles may win the game also. Their win conditions are hidden.".
Another reason is that they did not kill for two days then suddenly killed twice on day 3.
We know there have been 2 acolytes but it might have been a cult leader and only 1 acolyte at the strat, and then he only recruited once that acolyte died. If they are the smaller bad team I can't see them starting off at the same size as the mafia.
I find it a lot more believable that they started with 1 acolyte, and then could recruit once he died. We have seen in previous games that recruitment is often in place if a kill, so that's another reason why day 2 might have been no kills for them if they recruited instead of killing.
Likewise if Mafia don't kill anyone tonight it may mean they recruited instead.
Suspected initial roles:
1 Cult Leader
1 Acolyte, with a recruit option if he died.

Game setup:
based on these assumptions I believe the initial setup may have been:
Option 1
18 players:
13 Town
3 Mafia (Warden + 2 Guards) with a recruit option once a guard dies
2 Cultists (Cult Leader + 1 Acolyte) with a recruit option once an acolyte dies

If this seemed too much in town's favour, an increase in numbers fro both teams would have been:

Option 2
18 players:
11 Town
4 Mafia (Warden + 3 Guards) with a recruit option once a guard dies
3 Cultists (Cult Leader + 2 Acolytes) with a recruit option once an acolyte dies

However I see this as too difficult for town as within a few days town would have been screwed, we know the power of being able to communicate and strategise is massive in these games and town's biggest hindrance.

So I believe it was probably something like option 1.

That means as things stand we have:
8 players:
5 Town
2 Mafia (Warden + 1 Guard) with a recruit option that he has not used yet as there have been killings every night
1 Cultist (Cult Leader) with a recruit option that's already been used

Suspected win conditions
This is total guesswork but it's how I would set the game up if I was MITO:

Town (we know this from the OP)
The "Town" wins when all bad guys are wiped out and if they escape or it is inevitable both will occur.

Mafia (we know this from the OP)
The "Mafia" win when they are majority team left in game and no escape is possible or it is inevitable this will occur.

Cult (guesswork)
The Cult win when they are majority team left in game and if they escape or it is inevitable both will occur.

Ghosts (guesswork)
The Ghosts win when all humans are dead.

Reasoning:
Cult
As is standard in Mafia you need to be the majority team if you are non-town to win. I can't see any reason why the Cult would want to stay on the island so I would guess they need to escape to differentiate their objectives from the Guards.
So essentially when it comes to the escape route the guards want us to pick the wrong route and the Town and Cult want to pick the correct route.
When it comes to voting for lynch all teams want to kill all the opposing teams as is standard.

Ghosts
Ghosts can't vote or choose escape routes, but they do seem to make a kill every night.
I'm not sure if Mito will allow them to enter the game again but assuming they can't I would guess they would just need to keep killing us every night until we're wiped out, so they will need to hope that we keep wandering around and not finding an exit.
The ghosts will need to target the guards first as they are their main opponents, because the minute we can't escape anymore the guards will win if they outnumber us, so ghosts need us to not escape but they also need to kill the guards prior to this to win the game. That's why we're seeing suspicious characters getting killed by the ghosts.

 

Obviously I am going to clam to be town (and I am) but this is exactly how we should be thinking. NOBODY should be above suspicion and even those with strong town reads should be under the microscope - including me!!!

I am part way through my investigation of ACS's death. I am hoping this will tell me more. However, I am completely stumped on the point I have come to. I need lots of coffee and brain food