Off Topic Mafia game: The island

Does that mean you are a goody?

 

dangerous game this mafia lark....

 

Among the many things that went through my head as I was working out whether to switch votes was the knowledge it would arouse suspicion. I'd be the same.

 

I agree about Nev.
I may switch to him tomorrow from ACS if he does anything else a bit on the iffy side.

 

Indeed, I dismissed it but being a part of steering away from Chaos and onto Bod night one as well is noteworthy.

Looked back at Bobby's posts in case he had left any info which as Detective we now know is more important. First thing he did day two was instantly vote ACS, could be something as Bobby is quite a passive player usually. ACS jumped on him for it, too. Pretty much the only person Bobby has been linked with, seemed a bit of a random kill but ACS might have got a bit fidgety about that random vote and decided he could quietly off him.

 

ACS

 

Liking your theories at the moment!

I'll be doing some reading back to day one tonight I think!

 

As far as Chaos death is concerned......

I'm thinking this is the work of Biscan.

If it is we can expect at least one killing a night from the dead ones.

 

Has anyone seen any reference to guards that I've missed before tonight? Still can't figure out what Valley was trying to claim earlier since he's been announced as innocent whilst Bobby specifically as Detective, but he specifically said 'Warden and his guards'. Warden was mentioned in the OP but haven't seen anything about guards until Chaos was revealed as one. Not an insane leap of logic from there being a Warden to there also being guards, but seems unlikely that Valley would have made it just by coincidence.

 

A search suggests Valley was the first to talk about guards.

From the OP: "No PMs of any type are allowed to be published. If you get one you cannot use it as proof or you will be removed from game. Anyone posting snippets out of role will be considered breaking the game and it will end. It is not against the rules to completely fake one"

Either it's a coincidence, or "innocent" isn't the full story, or he didn't lose the coinflip but was removed for breaking the rules, or he was "innocent" but got the information from someone else.

 

It specifically says we can't use snippets. It doesn't say a player can't describe their role. I suspect this is to prevent people using the usual route of asking people what their PM says so that we can't eliminate people based on the wording of their PM. I think t means we just can't quote word for word, or ask others to do the same, to prove what team we are on.

 

cheating bastards

 

Yes but possibly he was careless in his last minute panic and this was actually a snippet:

 

He did claim to have a role too and that was proven not to be the case (unless MITO has ****ed up again )

Guards and wardens would make sense in a prison type setup tbf though. Maybe the warden is the lone ranger role?

 

"You follow the path to the south, towards the crystal clear lake and come to a place where perhaps only yesterday, a fair-sized spring had bubbled up by the roadside. Now it was dry and the group are thankful they did not head north as it was hot, far too hot to speak to one another. Not that anyone wanted to as accusation and counter accusation over the deaths during the night has spoiled what passed for breakfast already, not to mention the killing of the morning."

Perhaps this means we got the right choice, and in return get told which was the "wrong" choice

 

Which would mean the garden was the wrong choice on day 1 (if there was a wrong choice on day 1). Not a lot we can do about it now, but we might want to think about what we might have found in the house - though it would be guesswork at best.

 

It's dead on here

 

**** off with your notifications. I'm re-reading ready for my 6 page summary!!!!

 

Apologies in advance - I might be making quite a few posts as I re-read the thread.

Numbers

We know we started he game with 18 players. We also know that MITO has added in 5 more players (19-23). We have to assume that we have no control over 19-23, so that leaves 18 players.

On night one, 8 or 10 players (strange wording) were woken by the shreek from outside their rooms on the 4th floor. DPP was already dead at this stage (even though we didn't know it). That means there were 17 remaining players. Is it possible 8 or 10 of them are townies, as those up to no good would already have been awake?

The wording seems significant. My guess is that there are two 'town' players who may have their own win conditions - ie, they can either win as part of the town or go for a win on their own. This is worth watching out for later on.

That would leave 7 non-town roles plus DPP.

We know that DPP was an acolyte, but don't know if he was working as an individual or part of a team. The fact it is a ceremonial role makes me think that this was not a town role and could be connected in some way with either the dead or some supernatural force that is working in the game.

If we believe Valley then there is a Warden plus guards (plural). That means a minimum of three people in that team. Is this the mafia or are the mafia a separate group of bad uns, part of the group being watched? I suspect they might be the mafia, (unless the acolyte is the extra role below) simply because if they weren't then the mafia would have a maximum size of three people. Why three? There is another role mentioned in the OP.

At first I had thought this was the Warden. However, if Valley was telling the truth then the Warden is working with Guards, so this would be another separate role. We know nothing about this mystery role. I doubt it is a serial killer, just because it would seem an unfair advantage for the SK to have extra knowledge about the other players in the game.

The only other possibility is that this individual role was the acolyte. Perhaps they would have used the dead to try and win the game for themselves by killing off the other players. This might make sense, because we know that the dead will have their own board and will be discussing things and making decisions. Perhaps the acolyte had a way of influencing them but not controlling them? All total guesswork.

So my thoughts...

We have ten townies, but two may have the option of breaking away and winning on their own.

Of those 10, 3 are now dead.

Biscan - (VT)
Valley - (VT)
BobbyD - (Detective)

That leaves 7 - possibly 5 plus 2.so not that many.

There was 1 Acolyte (DPP) and he is now dead

There is a group consisting of Wardens and Guards. This was a team of 3 (now 2 because Chaos, a guard, is dead)

There is a group of 4 mafia - all still alive.

This is all dependant on the 8 or 10 being significant, but everything else has been significant and well written, so it would seem out of place to throw it in there for no reason.

It is also dependant on Valley telling the truth about a Warden and guards. However, as has been pointed out, there was no mention of guards before Valley's post and we now know that Chaos was a guard. This makes it likely he was being truthful. It may not have been a specific role (like detective), but he may have been given some extra information as part of his initial PM.

 

Notifications are annoying aren't they