Relegation

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I think AN must find out his first 11 very quickly and let them settle.
I am not blaming Rudd but I think it may be time to have JR back and have his more experienced head in the game.

If we can settle and start playing our game then we have shown we can beat some good teams, and deal with the not so good.

At this moment things don't look good and relegation would not surprise me, but neither would us staying up. We are only 1 point off the running, and it would only take a few teams above us getting a bad run and we could be fine.
 
Interesting discussion, with the usual optimists and pessimists showing through. It's certainly going to be tough, but it will be for the others as well.

Here are the remaining home and aways for the bottom 7 teams in the Relegation Battle (next match in italics):

West Brom: (29)
Home: Crystal Palace, Man Utd, Norwich, Watford, West Ham, Liverpool
Away: Everton, Leicester, Arsenal, Sunderland, Man City, Tottenham, Bournemouth

Bournemouth: (28)
Home: Stoke, Southampton, Swansea, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, West Brom
Away: Watford, Newcastle, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Everton, Man Utd

Swansea: (27)
Home: Southampton, Norwich, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City
Away: Tottenham, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Stoke, Newcastle, Leicester, West Ham

Newcastle: (24)
Home: Man City, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Swansea, Crystal Palace, Tottenham
Away: Chelsea, Stoke, Leicester, Norwich, Southampton, Liverpool, Aston Villa

Norwich: (23)
Home: West Ham, Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Sunderland, Watford, Man Utd
Away: Leicester, Swansea, West Brom, Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Everton

Sunderland: (20)
Home: Man Utd, Crystal Palace, Everton, West Brom, Leicester, Arsenal, Chelsea
Away: West Ham, Southampton, Newcastle, Norwich, Stoke, Watford

Aston Villa: (16)
Home: Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Southampton, Newcastle
Away: Stoke, Man City, Swansea, Man Utd, Watford, Arsenal

We have 7 home games left, whereas West Brom, Swansea and Newcastle only have 6 left. For me, the key is how our new players settle in and what improvements they bring. Naismith looks to have formed a good partnership with Mbokani already, but the others seem to be still adjusting, though I thought Bamford looked good in his half hour against Villa. I don't think we'll go the defensive route, as our strength is in our attacking players. Hughton only had RvW, Elmander and Hooper really with Redmond and Snodgrass supplying them. We need at least 4 wins, especially the home games against Newcastle and Sunderland. A win against West Ham could certainly change the picture considedrably but likewise a loss would be hugely damaging. West Brom away would be my other option at the moment.
 
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RiverEndRick said:
Interesting discussion, with the usual optimists and pessimists showing through. It's certainly going to be tough, but it will be for the others as well.

Here are the remaining home and aways for the bottom 7 teams in the Relegation Battle (next match in italics):

West Brom: (29)
Home: Crystal Palace, Man Utd, Norwich, Watford, West Ham, Liverpool
Away: Everton, Leicester, Arsenal, Sunderland, Man City, Tottenham, Bournemouth

Bournemouth: (28)
Home: Stoke, Southampton, Swansea, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, West Brom
Away: Watford, Newcastle, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Everton, Man Utd

Swansea: (27)
Home: Southampton, Norwich, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City
Away: Tottenham, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Stoke, Newcastle, Leicester, West Ham

Newcastle: (24)
Home: Man City, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Swansea, Crystal Palace, Tottenham
Away: Chelsea, Stoke, Leicester, Norwich, Southampton, Liverpool, Aston Villa

Norwich: (23)
Home: West Ham, Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Sunderland, Watford, Man Utd
Away: Leicester, Swansea, West Brom, Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Everton

Sunderland: (20)
Home: Man Utd, Crystal Palace, Everton, West Brom, Leicester, Arsenal, Chelsea
Away: West Ham, Southampton, Newcastle, Norwich, Stoke, Watford

Aston Villa: (16)
Home: Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Southampton, Newcastle
Away: Stoke, Man City, Swansea, Man Utd, Watford, Arsenal

We have 7 home games left, whereas West Brom, Swansea and Newcastle only have 6 left. For me, the key is how our new players settle in and what improvements they bring. Naismith looks to have formed a good partnership with Mbokani already, but the others seem to be still adjusting, though I thought Bamford looked good in his half hour against Villa. I don't think we'll go the defensive route, as our strength is in our attacking players. Hughton only had RvW, Elmander and Hooper really with Redmond and Snodgrass supplying them. We need at least 4 wins, especially the home games against Newcastle and Sunderland. A win against West Ham could certainly change the picture considedrably but likewise a loss would be hugely damaging. West Brom away would be my other option at the moment.
Click to expand...

Looking at this one could say that Sunderland have the slightly easiest set of games with only one away game against any of the current top six (West Ham in 6th) and the Baggies the most difficult (four of the current top six away and the other two at home). It's still all to play for but we must get a result on Saturday against the Hammers and I'd like to see the side set up to go for a win - damn the torpedoes and shame the devil and all that - if we're gonna drop let's go down fighting and play the City way at least.
 
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Excellent post RER.

I think the other way of looking at it is this:
West Brom, Bournemouth and Swansea each need probably at least four wins to ensure safety
Us and Newcastle need five wins to ensure safety
Sunderland need six wins
Villa need seven (possibly eight) wins

We can't all beat each other, so we ideally need one of the teams above us to get beaten (or at least get draws) with everyone around us. On a purely unscientific glance, I think Swansea have the toughest fixture list, although unfortunately they are in the best form (though of course that may be because they have had a string of easier fixtures...) If we can beat them on their home turf and Villa can snatch a draw or better, I don't see where their four wins are going to come from. Alternatively, with Newcastle, if any of Bournemouth, Swansea and Sunderland can pull out the stops to take some points at St James' Park, and we can beat them at home, they will be in real trouble.

A lot still to play for. Form is key - if we can find a win again, I think we will go on a run of decent results. We could do with a bit of luck. Let's hope it starts this Saturday.
 
Canary Rob said:
Excellent post RER.

I think the other way of looking at it is this:
West Brom, Bournemouth and Swansea each need probably at least four wins to ensure safety
Us and Newcastle need five wins to ensure safety
Sunderland need six wins
Villa need seven (possibly eight) wins

We can't all beat each other, so we ideally need one of the teams above us to get beaten (or at least get draws) with everyone around us. On a purely unscientific glance, I think Swansea have the toughest fixture list, although unfortunately they are in the best form (though of course that may be because they have had a string of easier fixtures...) If we can beat them on their home turf and Villa can snatch a draw or better, I don't see where their four wins are going to come from. Alternatively, with Newcastle, if any of Bournemouth, Swansea and Sunderland can pull out the stops to take some points at St James' Park, and we can beat them at home, they will be in real trouble.

A lot still to play for. Form is key - if we can find a win again, I think we will go on a run of decent results. We could do with a bit of luck. Let's hope it starts this Saturday.
Click to expand...

Excellent post Rob and sums it up quite nicely. If we could snatch a win on Saturday, everyone associated with the club would have their spirits lifted.

Sightly off topic - we seem to have had a habit of conceding 'soft' goals for as long as I can remember and whatever league we're in next season and whoever is manager (I'm hoping AN will still be in charge!!), we really need to get the midfield and defence working better together and in tandem, not as sometimes happens we have 2 lines of 4 in very close proximity.
Off to renew my season ticket later this week!!! <ok>
 
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RiverEndRick said:
Interesting discussion, with the usual optimists and pessimists showing through. It's certainly going to be tough, but it will be for the others as well.

Here are the remaining home and aways for the bottom 7 teams in the Relegation Battle (next match in italics):
Click to expand...

I don't think it us just optimists and pessimists. I think I am a realist, we are one result off safety at the moment and many are talking like we are Villa. There is time for things to change before we are down. We've been here before, sometimes we have survived, some times not.
 
Cruyff's Turn. said:
I don't think it us just optimists and pessimists. I think I am a realist, we are one result off safety at the moment and many are talking like we are Villa. There is time for things to change before we are down. We've been here before, sometimes we have survived, some times not.
Click to expand...

That was one thing I was thinking about that concerned me. Have we actually survived any relegation battle in recent years?

In 94-95 we should never have been relegated, but got sucked into the battle and couldn't pull ourselves out. Years of mid-table obscurity followed with vague ups and downs but nothing major, followed by promotion and an immediate relegation battle, which we lost. The two seasons of the Championship 06-08 were miserable, but we never really got into the relegation mixer, with the one time we were in 08-09, we lost. Then when Lambert got us into the PL we were pretty comfortable from about October, likewise with Hughton's first season after the ten match unbeaten run - not really relegation battles. Then the last PL season clearly we lost the battle again when we shouldn't have.

So it's not like we are Sunderland or the Wigan of previous years who had several seasons of last minute escape experience under their belts.

The only thing that sets this season apart is that in every other relegation battle it feels like for our team we shouldn't have got relegated and we have been, whereas at the start of this season I'd say you would think we should get relegated so hopefully this is the one where we don't!
 
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Cruyff's Turn. said:
I don't think it us just optimists and pessimists. I think I am a realist, we are one result off safety at the moment and many are talking like we are Villa. There is time for things to change before we are down. We've been here before, sometimes we have survived, some times not.
Click to expand...

I'd say right now based on current form Villa have as much chance as we do of staying up, they have only lost two of their last eight matches - four clean sheets during those, the same number we have kept ALL SEASON!! - and they've picked up eight points from their past five league games. The way things are going they will be above us by the middle of March. Villa are actually just a point worse off than Leicester were at this same stage last season.
 
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