Off Topic Dark Matter and other Astronomy information.

Soi please tell us what the "meat" was meant to be by you posting that Pielke chart? Obviously leaving aside the juicy tidbit of you posting stuff you haven't looked at.

 

You never did explain why you believe man made global warming is real.. and why the science is valid. Without all this girly handbags like.

Afraid of being exposed as a three minute link man, that we all know you are anyway. Even your girlfiends know that

no I didn't miss an r

 

@Tobes
I took the liberty of reading the article you refused to read, because it doesn't fit your belief in something you dont even understand, the "denier" "oil funded" guy.

I'll await your rebuttal or wait for the dodge, if you are going to attack him, then you must attack what he says. Not go off on some oil conspiracy theory.

My text in bold

Essay by David Whitehouse
"Nasa says that 2015 was 0.13°C+/-0.10°C above 2014. The UK Met Office said that 2015 was 0.18°C +/- 0.10°C above 2014. Noaa says 2015 was 0.16°C+/-0.09°C warmer than the previous record which was 2014.
Noaa had only one month in 2015 cooler than the same month in 2014 – April. According to the Nasa data four of them were cooler than 2014 (April, May, Aug, Sept) whilst Hadcrut4 had eleven months warmer than 2014 with April tied. For September 2015 Nasa has it 0.08°C cooler than 2014 whereas Noaa has it 0.14°C warmer!"
The above is all entirely accurate. I have already covered that for NASA temp, and the above has NOAA and UK data, none match.


Despite what some scientists have said the large increase over 2014 is far too great and swift to be due to a resurgence of forced global warming. It must be due to short-term natural variability, and you don’t have to look far to find it. 2015 was the year of the El Nino which boosted the year’s temperature. (In the Nasa press conference about the 2015 global temperature see how long it takes the presenters to mention the El Nino).
Also correct as that is not how CAGW works, there are no "jumps" to hot weather if CAGW is slowly warming the planet. Only natural variability and phenomenon like El Nino and the blob of heat in the pacific since 2013 cause the really anomalous jumps in GAT, these are facts. The actual temperature record also backs this, even the adjusted one.

“We are seeing an extreme climate state,” Randall Dole, a meteorologist working for Noaa, told the Journal Nature this week. He was commenting on the recent El Nino which is one of the strongest on record, with ocean temperatures reaching as much as 3°C above normal in parts of the central and eastern Pacific. It was unsurprising then that Nasa on releasing its global temperature measurements made reference to it. “Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been much greater than the old record by that much.” This clearly because 2015 was like 1998 a strong El Nino year.
One point to notice however is that even without the El Nino that made the fourth quarter much warmer than the preceding three 2015 would have been a record for the Nasa data. If the first six months of the year had been repeated then it would still have set a record. Curiously though no single month during that period (indeed up to September) set a record for that particular month demonstrating how close the global temperature has been over the past decade or so.
Again correct, none of the months up to El Nino effects from September on were records, so NOAA's claim is falsifeld by their own data. Yet no one noticed. I explained that very thing about Finland's average temperature. Much of the warming came from El Nino and the rest can more logically be put down to natural variability rather than a crackpot hypothesis that has been disproven by the laws of physics and observation


A Little Bit On Top
If the El Nino dominated the last part of the year another example of natural variability was dominating the earlier months. (legitimate point as the first months were nothing to write home about, all the hysteria came from the El Nino added effect late on in the last 3 months which had a dual effect as it raised max and min temp anomalies, a double effect on the record) The reason for the first nine months of 2015 being collectively warm can also be found in the Pacific. As I reported in September 2015 conditions in the north Pacific were unprecedented in 2015. The Summer warmth of 2014 had not dissipated. Indeed since 2013 the so-called Pacific “Blob” has kept a million square km of ocean 3°C above normal, (indications are that as of January 2016 the blob is beginning to dissipate.) “The temperatures are above anything we have seen before,” said one scientist in my article. (This is a valid question about the source of "unusual" warming in the first 9 months, the phenomenon called the "blob" is not imaginary, a heat concentration over the ocean, there since 2013, that accounted for "warmth" before El Nino, then El Nino added warmth, and no sooner than it begins to dissipate a massive freeze sets in, so was this phenomenon and El Nino holding off this freeze that's slammed into the US Mexico Canada Japan *****lia and all over the place? That would be the reverse of global warming)

So 2015 was an exceptional year for weather, which is not the way some scientists presented it. None of them mentioned the “blob” and as for the El Nino it was the “little bit on the top” merely a minor contribution. Most of the temperature rise was down to forced global warming, they said.
Again true, the first you ever heard of the "blob" was never as you never read this or my post about it.. Pacific Heat Blob https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean) The never mentioned that? Strange so two heating phenomenon nothing to do with CAGW have been ****ing with the weather. This throws massive doubt on the hottest year claims, unless you are a lobotomised Guardian reader. It is 0 evidence that CAGW is actually even remotely valid, people just connect the two, without the science to show it...

This is all slight of hand, and a little inaccurate. The IPCC says that just over half of the warming since the fifties is forced so most of the contribution to 2015′s temperature is natural variability. In addition the factor that makes 2015 warmer than its previous years is not a resurgence of forced global warming but the “blob” and the El Nino. Hard to argue against that as the facts about El Nino and the "blob" are verifiable. The blob brought up the temp average for the first 9 months, but they told no one that...

One can speculate what the temperature of 2014 and 2015 would have been without the blob and the El Nino. Some scientists have said it made only a few hundredths of a degree difference, others have said it makes a few tenths of a degree difference.
I think the few hundredths of a degree suggestion is wrong. So can the combined “blob” and El Nino account for the 2015 temperature excess of 0.13, 0.18 or 0.16°C depending on your choice of data set? It could. Indeed without the “blob” and the El Nino 2015 could have been cooler than 2014. Without the “blob” 2014 could have been cooler than 2010. Also true Note word "could", NOAA only use that when they say it "could" be worse.

This makes suggestions that the “pause” in annual average global surface temperatures has been “terminated” premature. The “pause” will not be ended by weather but by forced global warming. Consequently it is unsafe to use 2015 in any trend analysis to eliminate the “pause.” It is essential to view the 2015 along with subsequent years to catch the cooling La Nina effect. Only this way can the El Nino contribution be properly assessed.
The main conclusion that can be drawn about 2015 is that it was a truly exceptional year for weather, and for misleading press releases.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now really to say about the last bit, all I needed to point out are in the first bits.

So, this denier has put forward a pretty good argument as to why NASA and NOAA are in fact full of ****

 

3 minute copy paste edit, just aint gonna cut it though, I can suss that a mile off.

 

ha ha, so tell me what you think I have been easily led to believe then?

 

Again, I could be completely wrong.
Tell me why you think man is responsible for climate change?

 

Why do you assume that I do?

 

Just going off your posts, no other reason

 

should we really do the copy, paste and make it look like your own now?

 

What posts?

 

@BringBackFootie. cant be arsed now lad maybe tomorrow

Did I miss your answer re: the 2014 Finland record temperatures btw?

Whithouse's isn't a peer reviewed climatologist though lad, therefore his reasoning is merely that of a blogger. He's not a published scientist in THIS field......just saying..

 

no the lads have been doing that, copy paste, is a source, it's fine, pretending it's yours by editing it slightly is lameness of the highest order

 

The ones on the transfer thread

I will ask you outright, do you believe man is responsible for climate change?

 

Wrong year. Also you need to understand a temperature record doesn't mean the highest temp only, I think you dont understand that, Finland broke a bunch of minimum temp records, as in night time records, because El Nino warmed up the nights on the last 3 months of the year. Nights in the last three months are always much cooler.. El Nino

Much of NASA and NOAA temp adjustments are to the minimum temperature.

2015 is recorded as Finland's warmest ear on average, but that is irrelevant to CAGW, and it is irrelevant to the fact the summer was cool here.

The world wasn't that warm this year, the weather was, El Nino and the pacific heat concentration that warmed the sea as much as 3c.

Dont hear that in your skeptical science links about ocean temps or the Guardian for that matter.

Going off half cocked is a good fit for you. Getting all "I know the ****" when you dont even understand what the "****" is .

 

TBF I don't see how anything other than CP can show anything on this thread (unless the poster is a world leader in climate change knowledge)

 

so that means yes you want me to then

So you have no quotes to support what you think, merely that I point out some of the bollox spouted by somebody you view as being "on your side".

And you talk about me being confused or easily led

Don't believe the hype, go away grow up a bit, read a bit about manipulation ( I always think orwell is an easy starting point) and then come back and decide whose " side" I am on.

 

neither is the cartoonists site you go to Skeptical science, now proven on this thread to be frauds by the fact of provable lies.

Secondly, he(whitehouse) talks of NASA's data and NASA's findings, and applies logic>

You never even read the article and my breakdown. You're unbelievably ignorant, you will not let anything through that doesn't agree with unsupported conclusions.
You refuse to say why the hypothesis is right and ignore the laws of physics and science that has discredited the hypothesis.

You rant for several posts about me avoiding your "global glaciers in retreat" claim when I only talked of the poles, and then refused to explain how it relates.

You then refute my comment about Finland having a cool summer cool jan fab march and cold as Jan 2016, with the record for the average temp for the year.


I know we all have banter, but in terms of even having a debate, you are a train wreck.

So what really drives you to come here? You did talk of "False narrative" new for you, and "agenda" "denial" "conspiracy"


Now you say someone who doesn't have a degree you cant even name, cant discuss what NASA say and NASA data?

 

No lad, you dismissed the relevance of 2015 being the hottest year in Finlands modern history by stating it was ALL due to El Niño.

I said if I accepted that as being correct, then what caused 2014 to be the second hottest on record (since 1934 and at that point, as 2015 surpassed it)

You've continually avoided answering that question as the data that records it as thus is the Finland Meteorological Insitute, a source that you've used yourself and one of the few that you've not accused of #fraud. So what was the cause? Simple question, stop avoiding it.

 

I don't do "sides".
Again, I will ask, do you believe man is responsible for climate change?

 

Shall I repost the start of this crap again? You ****** I already quoted it, and it's clear as day, I said cold them cool summer then freezing (freezing started in 2016) so I obviously was not talking about Finland's average temp in 2015 I was actually talking about global average, and there were was arctic stuff there on the same post. You singled out the above, alone and posted the average temp for Finland. which was irrelavant.

Should I post them again, to show how ****ing stupid you are.

You are nothing beyond that 3 minutes of linkage, a pathetic jobless wonder who just pretended he went for meal after getting gaped so wide he couldn't sit down for an hour

If it wasn't for pity, I might really dislike you, if you have a bird I bet she "relishes" arguments with you.