Off Topic Donald Trump is a Headcase?

At least one fellow Republican [Carlos Curbelo] has called him a phantom candidate and said he believes 'he's a plant from the Democratic party meant to make Republicans look like bigoted, hateful trash.'

 

This is highly feasible. Trump's motive can't possibly be to win.

Sure he might win republican nomination but I refuse to believe he's stupid enough to think in the general election he can convince any moderates to swing to him.

It's also unlikely he believes everything he says. He's switched party affiliation so many times he can't possibly be as right wing as his comments suggest he is.

If his motivation isn't to win the presidency it makes you wonder... What IS his motivation?

 

His lead in their polls suggests they have bigger issues...all well known for quite a while since their shift towards the loonier side of things. No way Trump gets anywhere near these numbers 30 years ago. If he somehow makes them get their heads together to discuss the direction they have been heading to allow Trump to seem viable as long as he has then ge has done one good thing at least.

 

History repeating itself. His xenophobic and anti Islam stance is nothing more than a reincarnation of McCarthyism during the 50s and discrimination against the Japanese in the 1940s, gays in the 1980s.

New demographic scapegoat to persecute for a new generation.

 

The worry is if he is a plant, what does that say about the Republican party of which he's a very popular member? Shouldn't they be very vocal in denouncing what he's saying?

 

They are. At least after his latest comment they are all denouncing him.

 

You're closer to it so you would know. The next step must be to make it clear they would oppose him as the party's nominee.

 

Hmmm, a conspiracy theory about conspiracy theroies......

I like it!

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ounces-donald-trumps-anti-muslim-plan-n476201


Almost everyone who has commented on it has reacted negatively. What they think privately may be different.

Bubba Republican in his trailerhome might love what Trump is saying and like him more but more thoughtful republicans recognise that (agree with Trump or not) his policies are going to sink when it comes to presidential election.

 

Yes, what he's saying may appeal at State voting level but not Federal level. He's not touting to expand his business in these type of back waters is he i.e. motive?

 

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what's not to love

 

I'm not even sure what its appealing to other then peopel who fill in polls in the republican party.

Thier primaries start in feburary. thats when the first real vote is.

As it stands he's grown form being in the pack with a lot of guys to absolutely clear top of the polls. but........... when the first 2/3 primiaries are voted on he could be done. i hope he is as if he is not then that party is dead IMO

 

I think it's like Milk said, the trailer park contingent [that sounds really derogatory, not intentional, but it's hard to describe it any other way] who don't want any 'foreigners' coming into the country will find this rhetoric appealing - like the NF here - so it would win him votes at State level or below but not above that level. It should certainly put off delegates from putting him forward as Party nominee.

 

well the thing is his 3/4 strong states might not be the first ones up and he could tank in the north east and west. hell northern mid west and all.

I don't know what states even would back him.

I think milk might be right and he might push to get out of the race before any primaries and go independant to avoid being humiliated in the primaries.

One would almost assume this ratcheting of outrageuou comments are designed to do just that.

 

I don't either, yet his own Party have backed him thus far - bar the latest outspoken rant - so who knows.

 

the polls are all that show who's taking him seriously so who knows.

the primaries are as follows:

Feb 1 Iowa
February 9, New Hampshire
February 20, South Carolina
February 23, Nevada
March 1, 2016
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota 3
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wyoming

I would hope that after Iowa and New hampshire Trump will be out.

Milk will have to comment on south carolina etc. Traditionally those two primiaries decide a lot. people just won't spend the money and who't have the money if they flop in the first two. theres 3 weeks of campaiging across the states to be paid for after the first two and a lot drop out then.

 

Iowa is 'closed caucus' which means only registered party members can vote in that party's primary - in other words it's not an open vote, only registered Republicans can vote [for Republican candidates and vice versa with Democrats] and there may be enough who actually back him for him to win there.

 

South Carolina you don't have to be a registered Republican to vote in their primary but the primary rules state you can only vote in one primary. You can't vote in republican and democrat primaries. (and to help force the status quo of two party system no other party receives any assistance from state for primaries).



The coastal regions tend to be moderate democrat and liberal. The rest of the state is republican.

The upper portion in the foothills is cosmopolitan with a large number of educated people- 20 years ago this was far right territory, now its less predictable. A lot of people move to this region from other countries and up north. The far-right red necks are still a majority but a moderate republican can make some ground there.

The middle band of the state is a little over half black (democrats always do well with blacks) and half red neck. Its poor and mostly uneducated. Votes will for a large part be on racial lines. The exception is the Capital which is slightly more educated and moderate.

I expect Trump to do well in the primary in the central part with Carson resonating with the minorities.

Historically blacks are much less likely to vote in SC than whites. Even though they make up a significant % of the state population it's whites that usually determine the outcome of the election.


I haven't looked at the polls but I would suspect Trump will do very well in South Carolina.

 

I'm going to predict Trump won't win republican nomination though.

He'll win South Carolina and do well in the other two early Votes.

The problem for him though is that as people drop out of the race and the field narrows he's not going to pick up votes from those dropping out but his rivals will.


I'm still predicting Cruz or Rubio to win the nomination. Trump and Carson can't really hold on once the field narrows. And the "anyone but those wackos Trump/Carson" voters get a definitive alternative.



When Christie inevitably drops out- who will his backers go to? Not T&C. When Paul drops out... Definitely not T&C.

When Bush drops out. Definitely not T&C.

Same with Kasich... He's inevitably going to drop out and his followers wouldn't vote Trump.

The only person Trump might pick votes up from is Cruz as hes just as bigoted so his followers won't bat an eye at Trumps comments. The problem for Trump is Cruz is doing too well to drop out.

Cruz is an asshat too but less overtly so he'll pick up votes from the ones that drop out.

Trumps % can't grow. He already has the xenophobe vote and non xenophobes think he's a nut.

His rivals can and will grow though.

 

Ted Cruz (who I predict is going to win) is just as bad as Trump though. He just doesn't come out and say the crazy in a public setting. This makes him more dangerous because he could actually become president. He's too sly to be as controversial as Trump.


He is:
Against gay marriage and gays in the military. Thinks gay pride marches should be banned.

Thinks abortion should be illegal.

He's against contraceptives being covered by any medical insurance (and may be opposed to contraceptives altogether).

He thinks we need to build a wall across border with Mexico too. He also wants to deport over a million and half people (from Texas alone).

Wants to repeal any government assistance for healthcare (even for poor and elderly).

Wants police to have power to detain and arrest anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant- on suspicion alone (no evidence needed).

Thinks there needs to be more death sentences.





So in reality. Cruz is just a big a whack-job as Trump. But a more dangerous one because he doesn't look looney on the surface- only if you dig deep.